Wheat and Canola futures...

[farmaholic]

Have we finally turned the corner? What's driving it, techs, specs, or fund(amental)s?

What changed?

Are charts or fundamentals driving this.

Can upside momentum be maintained.

Sure would be nice to see a surge.

Weather?

Trying to stimulate discussion in a marketing forum.

[SASKFARMER3]

Politics! It's the fact the NDP are almost done in Saskatchewan!
One question early spring and dry the USA has less acres of winter wheat and flooding in some areas!

[Guest]

well the users of wheat have to be a little concerned that none is going in the ground this spring!

[farming101]

Wheat: short covering, lower acres in Canada for 2016
spring very early so risk of frost on US wheat weaker US
Dollar may drum up some export business for them
Canola: long covering kicked in when CAD quit dropping and
Rebounded, but it came right back. Maybe China is staying in the market
for old crop. Domestic disappearance is a record so far. Acres capped
for 2016.

[farmaholic]

farming101. Look into your crystal ball....in your opinion what's the best prices we could hope for. Lots of variables, spring weather will drive canola for sure(?). I hope the wheat and canola markets have been rode down as far as they can go(for now).

How long on the charts before we can say the bulls are in charge?

[farmaholic]

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[bigzee]

Dollar rises so does canola and wht ...... Very interesting.

[farming101]

The bulls are having their day, not sure if they're having their way

Wheat, with what is known, a slow grind higher is the likely outcome.
$6.50 for #2 13.0 was available a while ago and maybe be out there
on a price order for Nov/Dec delivery. Not a bad place to start.
Waiting may get one an earlier month.
Replacing sales with calls right now is cost prohibitive, unless a guy
did a call in the nearby month just to see if a few cents was available
with some further strength.
$7 tops for #2 13.0-more dollar strength may make that tough to find.
Weather is always a factor. A short crop in Canada with smaller acres
could change things quickly. Carry in forecast to be quite low.

Canola, old crop, high 11's was available last summer. Could it happen again?
Sure why not? Getting past 11 will take crop problems and a faltering dollar.
Not sure about the falling dollar. Looks stable.

New crop, prices have got to do better than what is out there right now.
Nothing worth looking at. I would think with the cap on acres and a bit of a drop in
carry out 11 will be available at some point for the 2016 crop.
Bean oil charts are working on an uptrend again.

[tweety]

well the users of wheat have to be a little concerned that none is going in the ground this spring!

hilarious! Half wheat and the other half canola for most of western canada acres. Just like every other year.

[Guest]

are you serious tweety , there is about 20 % of farmers here that grow wheat at all ?? and acres dwindling all the time ?? speak for your area , not mine . you are a grain buyer , aren't you ? check out deputter survey or other reputable ones ? you must be following the trashcan report

[Guest]

and also would like to know where in f#$k you get your info from ?? where do you think all the pea and lentil acres will come from ? but if you want to put your money where your mouth is , i will bet you that canola acres will be down again this year and wheat will be sharply down . really sick of your sarcastic ignorant replies . other people can have opinions also

[ado089]

I did a Sept 5 to 5-70 bull call spread on chicago for 18 cents. Local cash bid is $6.50 today. If that play matures with prices over $5.70 that puts wheat sold today just over $7. If it goes down you still have $6.32 in your pocket. There's a bit of an fX play too if, probably when, the dollar goes down.

[Oliver88]

and also would like to know where in f#$k you get your info from ?? where do you think all the pea and lentil acres will come from ? but if you want to put your money where your mouth is , i will bet you that canola acres will be down again this year and wheat will be sharply down . really sick of your sarcastic ignorant replies . other people can have opinions also

I agree with you.
Canola with edge down 5%, HRS will be down 15% or more.

Peas and lentils can't hit 10 million without subtracting from the two largest crops......regardless of what our sarcastic Agriville member says.

[tweety]

Interesting you know how many acres will be grown in the upcoming year.

However looking at crop insurance data, it tells a different story. While the history is no absolute predictor of the future, it certainly shows a trend that by far the majority of the acres have been for many years now wheat and canola.

Farmers are creatures of habit. How else do you think we are so easily marketed to and manipulated?

[Guest]

speak for yourself tweety , we grow 8 different crops on 3200 acres . but the question was : do you want to put your money where your mouth is ? and if you believe prairies will be half canola/half wheat , you are getting some really bad info ! i wouldn't even repeat something like that