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Drought how long can guys last this year till rains hit!

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    Drought how long can guys last this year till rains hit!

    Producers in dry Prairie areas could potentially be waiting a while for rain this year.



    Meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. said the longer-range outlook suggests farmers in the driest areas will have to be patient.



    “Dry regions will probably continue being dry regions for a while,” he said, adding it could be first half of May before better precipitation arrives, or possibly as late as June or even July.



    “The question is how long do we have to wait for the better rain?”



    However, Peace River Country and northern Alberta are not likely to see recovery from low soil moisture, but there should be enough precipitation to support crops, Lerner said.



    “They’ll do ok. But they’ll be dependent on each little rain that comes along.”



    Key areas of concern are in west and southwest Saskatchewan, north and southwest Alberta, Peace River Country, and other northern areas in B.C., said Trevor Hadwen, agroclimate specialist with Agriculture Canada’s Drought Watch program in Regina.



    Although current moisture supplies are likely adequate enough to get spring seeded crops off to a decent start, Hadwen said things could go south quickly if there isn’t rain.



    “If they don’t have enough moisture going forward through the season, there’s not enough deep soil moisture recharge in some areas,” he said.

    Yes its early and yes this is Canada but last years crop was created thanks to couple of things.
    1. Almost two weeks of thick smoke blocking the suns heat in critical time.
    2. Years and years of rains that filled ground water up.
    3. Showers that if you lucked out made for one heck of a crop.
    4. Winter run off that helped with water table.
    5. God that's for tom!

    But this year our Burrow pit that we use for spraying has had a trickle of water fill it. Yes still 20 plus ft of water but basically min run off. I did go with hoe yesterday and try to do some landscaping and yes the frost is still in the ground. Seemed like a episode of Yukon gold or Gold rush in September or October.
    Our water table is still high from years of flooding.
    We are good till end of may or early June for first major rain. Seems the boundary for rain has moved back to East of a line from Assinaboia to Regina to Humboldt to Pa. Manitoba is back with normal precipitation.

    So realistically maybe 2016 will have some issues.
    Time will tell but the early signs aren't looking positive.

    Seed early and Seed often.


    Have a great day!

    #2
    Originally posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
    ........ Manitoba is back with normal precipitation.
    What do you mean? back from being too wet or too dry?

    Comment


      #3
      When a rain is needed depends on when you seed.Seed early on a dry year you will harvest something.Seed later you may get nothing or if the rains come later you could get a bumper.But agronomy has changed since the 80s so effects of a drought and how long a crop can hang in there has also changed.

      Comment


        #4
        Grass We always use to say once you hit Manitoba border it rained and then in the wet years the border moved further west to around the Moosejaw area. Well I'm saying the rain looks to be back to close to normal pattern this spring.
        Todays storm kind of shows that.
        Now the other comment on todays Tec will help you in a drought I laugh my F#C$ing head off. Really helped in the Mud years we faced. Cant see how Canola that cant germinate will make a crop. Water is still the main ingredient and Oh yea Luck. Probably Luck more than any advisor, Etc.

        Comment


          #5
          A storm? what storm?
          So is it wet or dry in Killarney, Swan River or around Winnipeg? Do you know?

          Comment


            #6
            Hey grass crawl back under your rock. Welcome to Manitoba where it rains. and its a good thing in moderation.

            Comment


              #7
              Its said to be year of Jubilee doesn't bode well. Hope its not same 45 days of no rain like last May June. If so we are screwed, the moisture reserves just aren't there like last year. Lock those bins good padlocks.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
                Hey grass crawl back under your rock. Welcome to Manitoba where it rains. and its a good thing in moderation.
                SF3, reporting from Saskatchewan where it's always dry.

                Comment


                  #9
                  You better move back to Alberta because the NDP province of Manitoba is going Blue.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Grass I know for you it must be hard to try to grip with reality but talk to guys and you will realize that years ago Manitoba was always very nice and wet and rain made its way west but usually the Manitoba border was the cut off from big rain and just right amount. Till moose jaw then all bets were off all way to almost Calgary for rain.
                    I'm saying its shaping up to look like a normal year form our area for moisture and maybe just maybe were back to normal over all in Canada with rainfall.
                    Mud isn't fun but neither is drought. Just with a drought you know when to quit giving a crop stuff with mud your fighting right till freeze up.

                    So chat with farmers you might actually learn some things.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      The reason dad settled in MB... toured western Canada only place it was green was in MB once past the duck mountains.


                      Where we are here our soil reserves are to the top frost is pretty much out of the ground as dogging with the hoe is effortless.


                      The rain line is #2 highway. East of there we got rain my buddy 4 miles west nothing.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Forecast for SESK this weekend is 3" of rain. If that rain event happens, there'll be big time flooding, all over again. Having 2011 flashbacks already.
                        Will go from full acrers with perfect conditions to muddy slop and endless potholes in one weekend.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post

                          So chat with farmers you might actually learn some things.
                          I don't learn much from you SF3 because you spout so much nonsense.
                          We are way drier here now than we were on July 1st last year and July 1st last year was way drier than August 30th the previous year. I bought hay close to Winnipeg a month ago that its too wet to get on the field yet to load. According to you Manitoba is all the same. Such an armchair expert.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Saskfarmer 3

                            "Manitoba is back with normal
                            precipitation."

                            How do can you make a comment like that sitting in you house near Regina on April 14/16? Stick to forecasting your own farms moisture situation.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Ok so you two are such experts !
                              Ha ha
                              Manitoba is the wettest of the three provinces disagree or not I don't care that's my two cents for living in canada some 55 years.
                              Border use to be the line for some funny reason.
                              I'm just saying it sure looks like normal.
                              But you two dippers keep thinking its climate change or maybe a magic dragon!
                              Grass total years in canada and forage maybe the grass is dry now but tell me in June when it's up to the cows belly how fruit is! Years of flooding wasn't normal boys!

                              Comment

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