Canola Prices...

[farmaholic]

What is your target price for canola, if you have any left?

If we are going to see a run up to $11 and back down everytime "targets" get triggered...how will we ever see an increase above $11?

Sure would be interesting to see how high it could go if the Companies didn't have a slough of "maybe what ifs" to pick from. Imagine if they didn't know what price would open the bin doors and just had to keep ratcheting up the price until people decided to sell...

[Braveheart]

I like targets. I offer what I want for a price. So many times the marketing rep has said , "Well that's really high. I wouldn't hold my breath on that triggering and it ends up hitting".

I guess it's all how you view things. I see targets as my tool, not industry's.

[boarderbloke]

The problem of a farmer having his target hit at $11.00 during the middle of the night, is that other farmers may also have had their own targets hit at $11.25 and $11.30. The next morning, the farmer selling his for $11.00 is prouder than punch, mean time 2 towns over, others are bragging about hitting $11.30. The $11.00 farmer and all his buddies having coffee that morning won't know the difference, and will likely put their own bid in for $11.00.

My point is that there's little transparency in this type of marketing for the farmer. If the farmer selling his own for $11.00 also knew that the co. also paid as high as $11.30 over night, well that would be information!(but never gonna happen) BTW, the co. can change it's basis for individual targets so you can't just look at the futures price and say to yourself that YOUR target was the highest one hit overnight!

Would you target your canola price differently, if you knew what ALL THE OTHER FARMER TARGETS were? The co. knows what all the other targets are!

[farming101]

While I like prices at record highs as much as anybody, volatility can be tough on a guy when your getting whipsawed. And then there is the tactic used often, "well if you won't sell at 11 how does 10 sound?"

12 bucks has a nice ring to it. If it ever gets there, the bins will be ready for 2016.

[farming101]

Isn't buying and selling at different prices at different times of the year a part of a functioning open market?
Know your COP, lock in a nice profit if it's out there and you don't like gambling and go out and grow some more.

[farmaholic]

Two words....SPOT PRICING?

What happened to spot pricing?

If I could have increased my font size for those two words I would have.

Sometimes I wonder about our ability to have or gain some control or do we swallow everything presented to us hook, line and sinker!

I'm getting in that "mood" again, can't you tell? Negative waves farming101, negative waves.

[farming101]

Maybe some rain will help

[farmaholic]

Braveheart, I thought you were going to make reference to bull'seye targets or what you see through your scope and open sights....

Boarderbloke hit the nail on the head. Who hasn't experienced that honor?

.....fck, farming101. Had a LOL belly laugh over that comment.

[tweety]

Boarder, how does knowing what a neighbor sold grain for affect your profit/loss?

There are just as many farmers who sold for a dollar less then you.

[boarderbloke]

If you sold some of your canola over night with a target price of $11.00, and had the information that not only your target was hit, but also others who had priced at $11.30, would it not give you pause to price more at $11.00.
If you were taking another target the following day would you not consider $11.20, maybe $11.30, perhaps even $11.40 or $11.50?
I guess for me, just covering my costs aren't good enough. I want new and better things for my family, and I also want to continue to update my equipment regularly, and just covering my costs just doesn't get you ahead. And don't forget to throw in a sucky year from time to time too.

[farming101]

When I said cost of production I should have made it clear that I meant all
costs in including opportunity cost and a great big fat wage for yourself.

And ya, just because you had a great yield it doesn't mean start blowing
out your inventory for a set amount of profit per acre. You never know when the
next bumper is going to come along.

[fjlip]

We are ALL dreamers, thinking we can beat the SYSTEM, sometimes but NEVER always. Target gets hit so we sign a higher target and market NEVER gets there, so sad so mad! Have a cost of productio but the overage is our return to labor and investment. One can survive on NO labor return and no investment return.
Been a long time since prices were below those numbers. Might have said but 2015 Canola=$5.88 to cover fixed and variable. Wheat $4.17 for same. So we averaged $115/acre on wheat to labor and investment.
Canola returned $194/ acre to labor and investment....90% priced. Any one care to share #'s?

[farmaholic]

fjlip, our crop was too thirsty too long last year to "return" those kinds of numbers. Based on production, sometimes the market won't provide a price to make any, or much of, a profit. No guarantees in this racket!

[furrowtickler]

May be time to sell some I guess ,not ready to seed yet or willing to seed yet at this time

[wmoebis]

Is there any public info on what targets were accepted? Or only the bottom price Co's are offering.