In looking at my crop insurance I am trying to figure if it is worth taking the spring price endorsement on any or all of my crops.
I just don't see some of the crops dropping by much over the 10%.
For example peas would have to be in the mid $3 range and I don't see them much lower, and canola would have to be $7, which may happen but my gut feel says that is too low.
Barley could easily fall to the low $2/bushel level if there is a huge corn crop and our dollar climbs some more. It is a sad state of affairs when the size of our barley crop does not even infuence the price. Why are we not adding tarrifs on the imported corn comming in, it is pretty obvious that it is hurting the price of barley this year, and it should not be too hard to prove that us corn is subsidized?
Mustard is interesting, the contract prices are pretty much guaranteeing what you will get for fall price, yet a praire wide disaster such as last year would easily spike the fall price to the 50% max that the spring price endorsement allows. Mustard looks like pure gambling to me, as to taking or leaving the endorsement.
Wheat looks like the wild card. A 50 cent a bushel drop in price from the crop insurance price is my most likely fall price guess. On most crop insurance contracts that will only pay out $15-20/acre and the premium is $4-9 acre. Is the payout big enough to justify the premium?
These are my fall price guesses in $/bushel:
If it rains and prairies get average crop, prices basis Calgary area, net at the bin:
Feed barley $2.30/bu
Malt barley $3.60/bu
Cps wheat to cwb $3.95
1cwrs wheat 12.5 protein $4.55
Yellow edible peas $4.50
Canola $7.40
If it does not rain and we get last years yields:
Feed barley $3.75
Malt barley $4.10
cps wheat to cwb $5.00
1cwrs 12.0 protein wheat $6.20
yellow edible peas $5.20
canola $7.70
Please contribute your own price estimates and your opinion on the spring price endorsement.
I just don't see some of the crops dropping by much over the 10%.
For example peas would have to be in the mid $3 range and I don't see them much lower, and canola would have to be $7, which may happen but my gut feel says that is too low.
Barley could easily fall to the low $2/bushel level if there is a huge corn crop and our dollar climbs some more. It is a sad state of affairs when the size of our barley crop does not even infuence the price. Why are we not adding tarrifs on the imported corn comming in, it is pretty obvious that it is hurting the price of barley this year, and it should not be too hard to prove that us corn is subsidized?
Mustard is interesting, the contract prices are pretty much guaranteeing what you will get for fall price, yet a praire wide disaster such as last year would easily spike the fall price to the 50% max that the spring price endorsement allows. Mustard looks like pure gambling to me, as to taking or leaving the endorsement.
Wheat looks like the wild card. A 50 cent a bushel drop in price from the crop insurance price is my most likely fall price guess. On most crop insurance contracts that will only pay out $15-20/acre and the premium is $4-9 acre. Is the payout big enough to justify the premium?
These are my fall price guesses in $/bushel:
If it rains and prairies get average crop, prices basis Calgary area, net at the bin:
Feed barley $2.30/bu
Malt barley $3.60/bu
Cps wheat to cwb $3.95
1cwrs wheat 12.5 protein $4.55
Yellow edible peas $4.50
Canola $7.40
If it does not rain and we get last years yields:
Feed barley $3.75
Malt barley $4.10
cps wheat to cwb $5.00
1cwrs 12.0 protein wheat $6.20
yellow edible peas $5.20
canola $7.70
Please contribute your own price estimates and your opinion on the spring price endorsement.
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