March 02-03 CWB PRO

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

How Could this happen;

1CWRS 13.5 $256/t

1CPS Red $216/t

Canada Feed Wheat $139/t... a drop of $23/t!


These prices are all lower than the CWB has been quoting me to buy out my PPO contracts... except on that one day in January...

THIS IS FRAUD!

Unless the 02-03 pools didn't sell any grain in Sept, Oct, Nov, and December, these PRO's are not possible!

It looks to me like the 02-03 EPO Pool options had no outside risk management mitigation... and that the Contingency fund that I paid $25-40/t into, is going to pay these funds back to faithful CWB poolers... stealing my hard earned risk capital!

HOW COULD ANYONE Plan to do this bad of a job of "marketing" (marketing is NOT what has happened at the CWB... especially this year)... let alone actually pulling it off?

CWB you simply amaze me

An article was written by the CWB a few years back, saying they were "on the side of the Angels" and asking why we were so dense... that we didn't want "OUR BIG DADDY" Ottawa, to pay our way and make life easy for we "designated area" grain farmers.

We have taken "Big Daddy's" money long enough... and preformed our gut wrenching "services" that have given our industry every infectious desease possible economically.

IT IS TIME TO JUST SAY... "NO"

... "NO"... we don't want the shaft from Ottawa any more!

"NO" a million times!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Eatmorewheat;

I see the Liberals found another home for the some 9 billion dollars a year the Province of Alberta gives to Ottawa.

I have nothing against helping people in trouble... but;

Cutting the throats of Canadian grain growers... while failing to protect these same growers from subsidised production... which now includes Canadian subsidies flowing through to the FSU countries...

Time we cut the subsidies to Ottawa, from Alberta... I would say!

Ontario needs to do the same!

We need to deal on a provincial to provincial base... if this confederation is going to work!

Did you hear Alberta is planning to build 10 new schools this year?

I heard most of them were being built in Quebec...

[boone]

Tom4cwb; We usually refer to our Sask. education minister as Albertas Deputy Education Minister so it's no surprise what goes round comes round.

[melvill]

Here's how the logic goes with helping 3rd world countries that could be our competitors: Foreign aid is a very strategic and competitive business.

It's strategic because aid allows the giver to have some (large or small) influence over policies of the givee - ie. Ukraine, in this case. Maybe with a little influence, the givee will actually use some of their eventual, new-found economic well-being to buy goods, machinery, equipment or services, from the giver so economic benefit flows back to the giver.

Foreign aid is very, very competitive because if we (the giver) don't help out, some other giver will help in a heart beat because they recognize the potential future benefits (sales of goods and services) of having influence in developing countries.

Basically, if we don't help them (and hope for some eventual economic benefit for us), someone else will gladly swoop in and do it especially if the givee has resources that givers like to have access to.

So, do we not offer help (perhaps to protect our domestic industry) or do we offer help with the hope of expectation of future benefits?

[henbent]

Maybe they'll send our Minister Lee Vanclief, a failed farmer there to give their Dept some advise. Lucky them! NISA for the Ukran, that'll work.

[boone]

Tom4cwb; I agree it looks bad and it could well be. I think you can check back in my earliest posts and I'll say it again here. If the CWB fumbled the ball this time on HRS I'll be with the rest of you at the border. I expect the most maddening part to swallow will be, with the lack of good basis in last years fixed pricing accounts, lots left it up to Mother Corps. own traders. Wait what if they had been watching the way you had been successfully picking the highs and they sat on their collective hands because you did, and you thinking they had it all sussed did nothing. OH Whoa is me as Ms. Marg Delahunty of this hour has 22 minutes would say. What a tangled web we weave, when we set out to deceive. This could come down to your fault Tom. All joking aside if they screw up I'll be your campaign manager. There now I've said. Look what it has come to. lol

[TOM4CWB]

Boone;

I can do just as much outside the CWB as inside... I do not need to be elected!

TO buy back my CPS Red PPO contract, I was quoted $212.30/t... which is basically the initial price on CPS.

We were told by the CWB at Jim Chatenay's Accountability meeting, that they had bought less than 20,000t of CPS Red, on the A and B series contacts.

I understand much of this wheat was sold direct to API... at huge profit to the CWB... because freight did not need to be paid to port position!

If the CWB could not risk manage 20,000t... of a small domestic pool that should be easily hedged... what are these people doing at the CWB?

Is money being shifted into CWRS from CPS... because there is only one pool?

[boone]

Tom4cwb; You know my negative post on money flowing from one pool to another.
I had a chance to listen to logistics manager of CWB at an open forum of a group I belong to. The tone of his message has been keeping me up since. Wish I could elaborate. The tools at their disposal are varied and plenty, their collective wisdom (experience) may be the limiting factor. This year will be the acid test. By the way that was a good call on your Can-amera DDBC, not your 03's we did that well. But if you scooped up 04's that will be a nice base or mix.

[Braveheart]

Something that is surprising from the aid package going to the Ukraine is the support both financially and intellectually towards setting up commodity exchanges. While the Gov't of Canada chose to eliminate milling wheat, barley (other than feed), and for decades, oat trading, from real price discovery and transparency at the Wpg Commodity Exchange, they are willing to pump millions into helping the Ukraine develop a free market system.

Perhaps it was at the Ukraine's insistence seeing as they have firsthand experience at a failed Communist system, something the Gov't of Canada hasn't come to grips with yet.

[TOM4CWB]

Braveheart;

You took the words right out of my mouth!

Transparent pricing signals are key to the farmer decision making process.

The CWB does not allow "designated area" wheat and barley producers transparent pricing information... the pool system prevents this from happening!

Even with the PPO contracts, the CWB does not sell this contracted grain to a customer directly.

The CWB sells PPO contracted grain directly to the pool account, then sells these grains through the normal pooling system, the same as all the other grain the CWB sells.

"Designated area" grain farmers are in a worse position than the farmers in the Ukrane... we "designated area" farmers get thrown in jail if we attempt to arbitage the market... Ukrane farmers at least do not have this challenge.

Further, Ukrane farmers can check Black Sea selling prices that are often quoted... and then compare and see if the offered price by their marketer is fair! "Designated area" farmers can't even do this, we must check US prices...and try to convert to a comparable CDN price.

[winston]

The way that the CWB has priced our wheat this year makes me sick. Here we are in one of the few years in a farmers career where he thought he might make some money and they did not sell any wheat when the price was high.

How pathetic

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

I saw this report on ODJ wire services reporting CWB prices;

April 1st, 2003
Grade St. Lawrence CWB Price
1 CWRS 13.5% $260.45/t CDN

The following are the Canadian Wheat Board's Thunder Bay domestic prices, in Canadian dollars per metric ton, instore.

Milling Grade Price
1 CWRS 17.5% to 10.0% $253.88/t except the following #1 CWRS Grades
1 CWRS 14.5% 251.08/t
1 CWRS 14.0% 248.28 /t
1 CWRS 13.5% 242.68/t
1 CWRS 13.0% 248.28/t
1 CWRS 12.5% 251.08/t
2 CWRS 17.5% to 10.0% $231.48/t
3 CWRS 221.48/t
1 CPSR 221.48/t
2 CPSR 220.38/t
1 CWRW 218.68/t
2 CWRW 217.58/t
1 CWES 220.38/t
2 CWES 219.28/t
1 SWS 198.58/t
2 SWS 192.48/t
3 SWS 191.28/t
Cda Fd 210.28/t
1 CWAD 303.01/t
2 CWAD 294.61/t
3 CWAD 289.61/t

Now, how do we match up these prices with CWB PRO's?

What market signals are real, and what is fiction, CWB PRO's or CWB offering prices to our customers?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

I did a little checking... March 28th CWB prices Thunder Bay were about $1.50/t lower than April 1st reported prices in this table... the spreads are almost exactly the same... between all the grades reported.

Here is the PRO/TBay spread Comparison

CWB March 27th 2003 PRO
Based on Vancouver/ St Lawerance In store prices.

1 CWRS 14.5% 251.08/t CWB PRO $262/t
1 CWRS 13.5% 242.68/t CWB PRO $256/t
1 CWRS 12.5% 251.08/t CWB PRO $253/t
2 CWRS 13.5% 231.48/t CWB PRO $244/t
3 CWRS 221.48/t CWB PRO $223/t
1 CPSR 221.48/t CWB PRO $216/t
1 CWRW 218.68/t CWB PRO $210/t
1 CWES 220.38/t CWB PRO $217/t
1 SWS 198.58/t CWB PRO $220/t
Cda Fd 210.28/t CWB PRO $139/t

CWB Durum PRO at 13% protein
1 CWAD 303.01/t CWB PRO $284/t
2 CWAD 294.61/t CWB PRO $272/t
3 CWAD 289.61/t CWB PRO $240/t

[charliep]

I will leave for discussion other than to note the following.

1) You are comparing apples and oranges in that one is a Thunder Bay price and the other is port based (Vancouver/St. Lawrence). You also need to know a lot more about how the CWB does pricing to western Canadian millers and the adjustments to these prices. This is private business as negotiated by the Canadian National Millers Association and the CWB.

2) As with pool returns to farmers, the millers price is set on a base grade (1CWRS 13.5 protein) with spreads applied to bring to other grades relative to the based. The spread (from my days at the CWB) is reviewed regularly but not changed everyday. It is spreads based on market signals and not actual US sales prices/market signals from other markets that determine the price relation between classes, grades and proteins.

Just as question to guage understanding of CWB pricing practices, what price would a domestic mill pay for wheat destined for an export market where the competition is subsidized wheat from the Europe Union?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

The actual TBay prices are of interest, obviously, of more interest to me is the specific spreads between the classes.

The CWB has proudly stated many times that the PRO's are accurate to the actual returns received for the grains we "sell" the CWB.

How can this be the case?

Canada Feed is sold at $210/t, yet the CWB is telling us the PRO of $139/t is accurate... when we know this is for a fact to be false.

It matters not if 10t, 1000t, or 10,000t of feed wheat are sold to the CWB, this is obviously expropriation with out FAIR compensation... something only the CWB could possibly get away with.

Canada Feed wheat is VERY important, because it is used as the CWB hold on it's "monopoly"... a hold that is illegal, because the price inside and outside Canada in NOT reflected by the PRO or initial price for Canada Feed wheat... PLUS the pecuniary benefit enuring to the applicant requesting the export license is NOT reflected by this process in reality.

THe Canada Feed Wheat PRO price is pure and simple... a economic tarriff, or TAX/FINE being paid by anyone who happens to get caught in the CWB stickey trap... NOT IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM a realistic value the CWB can get for wheat that actually is of this quality.

I see that the SWS wheat is being given away, lucky Soft White Wheat producers are reaping a huge pooling benefit, or the millers and or bakers getting this wheat are steal of a deal... one or the other... or could be both.

Spreads on CPS vs. CWRS are way out of line with initial prices... and the Fed. gov. will have a hard time changing initial prices... as the CWB has obviously selling for below initial prices already, the PRO's prove this, as the PRO's couldn't be this low unless the CWB was selling below the initial prices... IMHO!