Time to short canola

[ado089]

We had a good weather rally now with good moisture conditions across large parts of the prairies and delayed corn planting likely to shift acres over to beans South of the border is it time to start taking some risk off the table?

[farmaholic]

Yup. Because I caved to my curiosity and over all I think our canola catch looks not too bad for the hot dry windy conditions we had after seeding.

Also I don't see what all the fuss about flea beetles is. Didn't see one shot hole or leaf edge feeding. Treated with Lumiderm on almost all of it and they have to feed on it to die....so where are they?

[furrowtickler]

The flea beetle fuss was 99% canola on canola seeded from April 27 th ish to May 7th ish that got froze 10 days back . Same as last year, those fields get pounded .
Canola on canola seeded that early here should have matching acres of matador and 2 ltr Alpine waiting by sprayer within 3 days of even a moderate frost .

[farming101]

Risk off for sure.

Outside markets may decide canola needs a haircut but canola on its own is doing well.
A close below 505X would change my mind.

[biglentil]

A lot of canola acres went into pulses. Supply is currently tight. I think there are better bets out there but they are not in the ag complex.

[Oliver88]

It appears a put option for $520 November 2016 contract is $28.
Best way to short canola would be sell some out of bin.


Bearish
Alberta and Western Saskatchewan had rains and their dry conditions have disappeared. (For now anyways)

Bullish
Canola seeded acres down in 2016.
Inventory tight currently.
Cost of production is high, good price required for profit.

Wildcard
CDN Dollar
Crude Oil price

[sumdumguy]

This isn't a bet. Its guys locking in a price for the crop in the field. Its all a crap shoot. It's probably a good time to sell what's left of 2015 prod'n. Some guys short or pre-sell crop in the field, then worry all summer about covering their behind, but different strokes for different folks. Maybe some enjoy the drama that goes along with this occupation.

[dak7]

Nice rally in canola and soybean futures today.
Any news other than weather issues in the US and South America?

Unless there is a severe weather issues I am wondering how much higher will this spring rally go?
That is when we will sell some 16 crop, depending on how things look here in our fields.

[farming101]

How much higher is unknown. No one predicted soy prices this high back in the winter. No one.

Close to 2 year highs in the bean and meal futures.

Anyone's guess but there could be another buck in soybeans
Meal leading the way. UP 60% since Feb.