Bipolar Markets.

[farmaholic]

Give them some meds.
Over reactions
Volatility equals opportunity?\
I only sell physical...not a paper trader.

[Partners]

You are right..Soon as something in the world Twitches...Grain price have to go down first..

[furrowtickler]

Agreed - sad to see how any event like that drops grains and oilseeds 👎

[Oliver88]

I don't think Brexit was a canola factor, it was on a 2 week slide and lost close to $1/bushel as of yesterday.

IMO, this was just a bunch of overblown media hysteria due to their preference of the UK being in the EU.

Today, Canola up $10, Soybeans up 30 cents, Wheat down.

[hobbyfrmr]

I agree wth partners.

[errolanderson]

Spring soybean/soymeal rally was driven by fund money flow. This was the key spark for $12 canola bids. Fundamentals did not justify these gains.

Sell-off triggered well before Brexit .. . .

[farmaholic]

Wouldn't it be fair to say canola markets are over sold? RSI is below 30. BUT I'm sure there are a myriad of other technical indicators that can justify where it is, only problem is I know SFA about them!!!

I'm all ears, no really, I have big ears!!!

[HappyFarmer]

I disagree Erol...

I mean think about it....16.75 million mt of canola we have used already.

There is 5 weeks to go and we should easily pound another million tonnes through the system.

Think of it this way. We have already used 18.5 million acres at 40 bushels/acre already....and.5 weeks to go.

And how cheap does canola look compared to soybeans today...

OK, I get it, maybe the funds needed to take a breather but based on the about way wouldn't they long 42000 contract.

Lots of weather in front of us yet.

[Braveheart]

I agree Happy. Plus if we get another higher close in beans those computers will fire off a buy signal and away we go again. This market will be volatile until its close to the bin.

[iceman]

Hate to be a bull here but

The trade expects 20 million shh seeded acres for the stats can seeded acreage number on June 29. Is this even possible? pulses stole the bulk of the canola acres out west and south and with mustard contracts the way they were in the spring they also picked up acres. Some other area would need to make up for those lost acres. Who knows maybe we are in for a wild day

Also the lentil number maybe interesting

Iceman Out

[farming101]

May not have to mess with canola acreage too much to make it work out.

Wheat, oats, flax and summerfallow down. There's your extra pea and lentil acres.

[iceman]

May not have to mess with canola acreage too much to make it work out.

Wheat, oats, flax and summerfallow down. There's your extra pea and lentil acres.

Good point

[errolanderson]

Happy . . . you are right , canola demand has been superb . . . .

The recent plunge in canola through has been result of a drop in this demand, more aggressive grower pricing technical selling and an overbought U.S. soy complex.

(IMO), Brexit of no Brexit, there was a financial correction coming. Global economics are extremely out-of-balance. Japanese 20 year bond yields are now threatening to go negative . . . insane global economics with no end game in-sight.

Our canola market ahead may represent a blend of strained global economics impacting prices and demand for canola. Given the sharp plunge in ICE canola it suggests it may be next year country now despite amazing demand and low ending stocks.

An opinion for what its worth . . . .

[farming101]

Wheat market flopping...no flipping at all

Sold some so-so soft white to the feedlot for the same price as #2 13. Oh boy.

[farmaholic]

Captain101, take the handling/elevation and freight and add it to the #2 price. Those costs are more than hauling the feed wheat to the feedlot. I'm not making excuses and don't like how cheap milling wheat is either! Weber has a port price in one of his newsletters. Backed off to my location, the basis is somewhat similar to pre-open market deductions. That being said...I would have hoped it would have come down...yeah I know---delusional!

Good thing I sold a bunch of grains when I did....some grains sure took an ugly turn down. I didn't think gravity could affect grain prices.