What are the thoughts on wheat price outlook for the next 2 -3 years?

[monte]

I have been reading about the big us wheat crop and looks like large global stocks. Is everyone as negative on prices as I am reading? Just thinking about what we need to be doing the next few years cropwise.

[farmaholic]

And what do we put in the rotation in its place? Only so much malt barley gets accepted per year. Overproduce the Canary seed market? Sucks when the spread between feed and milling is narrow...grow feed and go for volume?

I've said it before, cereals in the continuous cropping rotation seem to be the equivalent of summerfallow in the old half and half or one thirds two thirds rotations.

I think the best we can hope for is a premium for quality.

We are about to start dumping another $15/ac on the wheat and durum all in an effort to try to produce something that when getting graded using an arsenal of degrading factors will get analysed and picked to pieces using tweezers, magnifying glasses, and possibly petri dishes in an effort to try and pay as little as possible for it. You feel kinda beat before you start.

[Bootances]

Sure good we got rid of that wheat board.

[stonepicker]

You got that right booty! If we still had the --- we'd be getting $4.00 for our wheat instead of $6.70 - $7.70

[Braveheart]

Yes the CWB was the biggest disaster ever for prairie agriculture. Sask Wheat Pool running a real tight second.

I'm currently neutral on wheat price. I expect range bound prices bouncing around on currency fluctuations.

US winter wheat reporting some high yields but NA spring wheat crop is not in the bin yet. If it's as hard to harvest as our hay crop (chronic wet) quality will be an issue.

[Partners]

Over supply..dead horse...Wish I knew what else to grow..Neighbors seeded mega Bly this yr..Because they all had good results last yr..

[Hopalong]

Maybe because present prices are low, wheat futures prices show better outlook for increase than most other commodities.
Cattle and hogs price outlook is lower.
Chicago wheat futures especially shows twenty per cent or dollar a bushel price increase in next two years.

[Bootances]

Harper saved me income tax by getting rid of the wheat board. No more $11.00/Bushel wheat Only $5.80 and falling every day.

[foragefarmer]

Sure glad our farm doesn't rely on wheat as being the main crop to pay the bills and prosper.

CWB or Non CWB nothing to get excited about, when every country grows it and are better positioned to ports than Western Canada.

[Hopalong]

Renewable fuels demand and use bares watching.
Think it was the driver for higher feed grain and wheat prices of past few years.
When faced with high food prices, envirionmmentalists backed off on support for ethanol.
Can see a transportation fuel shortage coming if oil is phased out too quickly.

[malleefarmer]

Here in aussie land we have to contend with grower held stocks from nov dec 15 harvest being carried over some suggest as much as 40% unsold.

Our traditional markets and near neighbours are getting swamped with blacksea and French wheat.

My saviour is domestic market prices relatively strong, and forward sold about 4 weeks ago there was a spike 276 port basis 248 to 250 on farm.

in process of putting up 2 836 tonne silos to store wheat and a few 90 tonne silos to cater for domestic demand.

another issue here is collapse of milk prices diary farmers doing it tough and are great outlet for feed barley.

gonna be a long two year haul as growers swing away from cereals before market reacts.

every man and his dog growing lentils here at 1000 per tonne only need low yield to make a small profit and chickpeas to a lesser degree.

as sask farmer 3 says often the reset button needs to be activated

[Rareearth]

Sorry mallee we will be first to the market, with a bit of everything good bad and ugly grades.

We harvest August sept, delivery to the market in October ahead of your harvest in November/December. Canada with its large crop will flood the market with most of our crop before you harvest or know your quantity our quality. Then you will have to contend with large crop to be grown in India ( if Indian govt gets their way, feb harvest, they arrive last to the dance). The Indian government is on a mission to destroy market place, and further depress local market to the point where no lentils will ever be grown by Indian farmers again, they also run the risk of loosing Canada and Aus. If there are trade disruptions. Governments at there best.

[stonepicker]

Yep it's nice to have the freedom to haul your own wht. wherever you want without fear of getting arrested.

[wakopa]

Let me know what u get wise guy for ur wheat , bet I do better hauling 7 miles in Canada 29

[Hopalong]

Seems to be a bit of a split on thinking about ethanol and biodiesel, whether they are good or bad when used as replacement for fossil fuel.
Oil companies lobbied against them, farmers for them and governments tended to support them as replacement for imported oil
Jury is still out on envirionmental and greenhouse gas reduction value.