Dr. Tierney's Sask Wheat Graph

[dalek]

http://www.webercommodities.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=53

I posted it this morning

[TOM4CWB]

Larry,

I have heard harvest reports from central SK. that yeild is 17bu/ac of the worst looking junk possible because of frost. Canola yeilds are being estimated at .3bu/ac, yes .3 ... and the farmers are looking for straw markets for the frosted canola. These folks are worse off than the drought area now...

I see grading is lightned up significantly, DHV is still ok if not too much rain fell in areas in AB... SHrunken shriveled is being ignored if bushel weight is there... A VERY high protien crop... 13.5 worth as much as 17PX as blending is required to make 14.5 for milling blends...

I am sure this will be a nightmare for flour yields as kernel consistancy is totally out the window, as everything will be blended many times...

Falling numbers will likely end up being the most important factor in the grade... if the farmer is willing to do a little salesmanship work...

Good graph, now we must sub as much feed wheat for corn as possible...

Elevators are really pushing corn and corn products, as grain farmers are reluctant sellers of feed wheat...

WHAT A MESS!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie will attest to the ridicule I took from the trade with regards to the August 01 frost. I was even accused on being on "crack"....lol

If I had #1 or #2 CWRS, I would let the millers beg for it. There is nothing in the Wheat Board Act that says millers can't offer farmers a premium for their wheat.

I have an email that you would like Tom, and I'll post it when my phone dies down. It should soon, it is raining here.

[charliep]

Thanks for posting Larry. Needless to say, one scary graph.

My sources indicate the CWB will be tendering for all 3CWRS wheat from grain companies with a requirement being falling number commitment. My suspicion is this may extend to 2CWRS as well.

As Lee indicated, the CGC will do falling number tests for samples if requested (see EPO thread). Several grain companies also have labs - request this information when you show them samples. If they refuse, back out the door and don't come back. There are also private labs. Know quality and market as such if you are the high end. The grain companies are going to have to figure out how to get high falling number 2/3 CWRS up the drive way.

Not likely the right thread but I am curious as to how grade discounts will go for canola. My guess right now is lots of green seed. I am going to find it interesting as to how the market sorts discounts out. Stay tuned. Make sure you don't get hammered with winder discounts than necessary on lower grades.

[charliep]

Just as another note, look for grain companies to be a lot tougher on grading wheat. Putting more emphasis on something like falling number puts a lot more risk in blending at the elevator. They will be more likely to grade based on what it is versus what they think they can make it.

The side note as per Tom4cwb is that there will be more feed quality wheat around.