Today's/USDA Report/Canola Strategy

[charliep]

Just a note to highlight the fact today's US soybean production estimate as published by USDA is a little below expectations (still big). Markets are reacting today by going a little higher.

http://jan.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/2004/

Any thoughts about marketing actions coming out of today's report. My issue right now is to get everyone thinking about what they have priced and what other products they will sell this fall for cash flow. In my opinion based on what we know today, the grain and oilseed market will continue to head lower in the short term with the lowest prices and widest basis right at harvest (like a normal year). Lots of you will be making decisions around calves this fall. What are you going to sell to pay the bills?

[charliep]

A suggestion to get everyone to read old postings to get a flavor of what people were saying about fall prices this spring. Interesting to compare thinking and emotions around market decisions to the reality when it occurs. One of the most beneficial things I do is to review what I have said/why and try to use these lessons to improve my analysis next time. With markets, I am in a continous process of learning - its what keeps life interesting.

[rain]

Charlie current soy oil prices are still abouut 100 points under the the low end of the USDA range for oil and meal is still 5-10 under do you think this could help us out some?

[charliep]

It may longer term (winter/spring) but I am not an optimish short term (fall) unless weather really kicks. My question is how much of a Oct./Nov. canola program the grain companies have on to pull in the potentially humungous canola crop out there. Deliveries are likely to be large straight off the combine for cashflow/bin space reasons.

[rain]

Most of the Road Warriors (grain company reps) I know say they have less canola booked then last year at this time.