PRO's.......

[cropduster]

INC......It`s a little hard not to get excited isn`t it????Great sermon,albeit a little long.Keep up the good work!!!

[AdamSmith]

Excellent post Incognito!

I’ve been reading that PM Harper will have a smaller cabinet and that CWB will be just melded into another portfolio, probably Agriculture, but it could easily go with Trade.

My thoughts on incremental change vs. a sudden and irrevocable ground shift under this minority government situation.

It is my strong and fervent opinion that not one opposition party will choose to “Die on the Hill of the CWB”. The Big City Lib’s are not going to risk a Harper majority just to save the single desk. Even if they were to entertain the thought their Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver voters will skin them alive if they went into an election before they were ready in order to save something 99% of them have never even heard of.

The Bloc know that with ten seats already in Quebec, the Cons will have a powerful ground force in every Quebec riding next time and could win 40 or more seats in Quebec in the next election, the Bloc know this and my guess is the Bloc will do almost anything to keep this parliament going.

The NDP may put up a fight just for show but if the Bloc and the Lib’s vote to live and fight another day there is nothing they can do to stop CWB legislation.

My advice to the Tory’s, on the issue of CWB, govern like you have a majority and Rock My World.

[AdamSmith]

By the way KC Wheat up 10 cents this am.

[charliep]

Just a note that the CWB provides a graph of converted futures prices this can be found at:

http://www.cwb.ca/en/contracts/ppo_workbook/pdf/2005-06fpcbpccharts.pdf

I also encourage everyone to follow the daily pricing contract.

http://www.cwb.ca/en/contracts/ppo_workbook/pdf/2005-06/2005-06dpc.pdf

The above should reflect changes in the US market and provide a signal to farmers as to actual market prices. If they don't or the signal is not clear, then there should be some questions asked. My assumption is this program will continue into 2006/07 so you have to be prepared to understand.

I also highlight the more mundane issue of wheat movement.

From the grain stats weekly for week 25 (January 22) for wheat excluding durum(http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/pubs/grainstats/gsw_2-e.asp).

Visible stocks - 3.2 MMT versus 2.8 MMT in 2005.

Deliveries - 6.4 MMT verus 6.8 MMT in 2005.

Exports - 4.3 MMT versus 5.1 MMT in 2005.

From the statistics Canada stocks report, 14.2 MMT of wheat excluding durum on farm December 31 versus 12.7 MMT 1 year earlier.

There will be a lot of preasure to move grain the last half of the crop year. This will be aggravated by the amount of tough and damp crop still stored on farms. Sell it or smell it. The lower PRO's could be an indication of a very aggressive pricing program by the CWB in the last half of the crop year to simply make sales.

[Vader]

Adamsmith, two questions.

What makes you think that the CWB issue would be a confidence motion that would bring down the government?

Why do wish for the government to bring down the CWB rather than doing it about as a farmer movement? Do you not trust farmers to make the decision?

(sorry that was 3)

[AdamSmith]

Well I suppose you have a point there. I don’t know that but I guess the Tories know that as well and if I were to do something legislatively I would piggy back the legislation on to some other piece of legislation, like say the Accountability Act.

As far as my opinion on the second and third questions, the issue of the monopoly or the single desk is a matter for government only. Farmers have no power to instruct the apparatuses of government that are needed to maintain the single desk. Those being: Customs and Revenue, the RCMP and the Courts. It is federal legislation that permits a monopoly and federal legislation only. This is fact. Yet how the CWB functions I believe should be entirely up to farmers to decide.

Do I trust farmers? Yes, as individuals making individual decisions. No, not as a majority trying to institute mob rule and being forced to run my affairs as the mob only sees fit.

[TOM4CWB]

Vader;

THis is all about personal responsibility for assets.

I have NO right to tell any neighbour how, when, or where to sell their grain.

Yet you seem to think you know best.

What responsibility will you take for mistakes the CWB has made? NONE.

I am responsible for the CWB's mistakes... because it comes out of my pocket!

I am sick of paying for foolish decisions the CWB makes, and then sends my family the bill afterward to pay!

[agstar77]

Interesting choice " Mob Rule". I guess it was mob rule that elected the minority Conservative/Reform government. I don't trust that mob either.

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar77;

Can we agree that we should be responsible for our own assets... and respect others to do the same?