Canada imports 100,000t of US wheat in APRIL?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

I have watched with interest in the past few weeks as US sales of wheat to Canada have increased dramatically!

April 1st 2003 Milling Grade Prices TBay, PRO St Lawerence/Vancouver
1 CWRS 14.5% 251.08/t CWB PRO $262/t
1 CWRS 14.0% 248.28 /t
1 CWRS 13.5% 242.68/t CWB PRO $256/t
1 CWRS 13.0% 248.28/t
1 CWRS 12.5% 251.08/t
2 CWRS 17.5% to 10.0% $231.48/t
3 CWRS 221.48/t CWB PRO $223/t
1 CPSR 221.48/t CWB PRO $216/t
2 CPSR 220.38/t
1 CWRW 218.68/t CWB PRO $210/t
2 CWRW 217.58/t
1 CWES 220.38/t CWB PRO $217/t
2 CWES 219.28/t
1 SWS 198.58/t CWB PRO $220/t
2 SWS 192.48/t
3 SWS 191.28/t
Cda Fd 210.28/t
1 CWAD 303.01/t
2 CWAD 294.61/t
3 CWAD 289.61/t



USDA says it inspected 1.853 million bushels (50,430 tons) of U.S. wheat to Canada, while Japan loaded 41,205 tons during April 11-17 (Source DTN April 21st Ag News reports)

CWB TBay prices April 21st 03

1 CWRS 15.5%&up $237.53
1 CWRS 15.0% $234.83
1 CWRS 14.5% $232.23
1 CWRS 14.0% $231.13
1 CWRS 13.5%&dn $229.53
2 CWRS all Px $221.53
3 CWRS all Px $213.53
1 CPSR $209.83
1 CWRW $207.13
1 CWES $208.73
Cda Fd $200.23
1 SWS $199.33
1 CWAD $301.94

Charlie;

I see the spread between a 1CWRS 13.5 and 1CPS Red is less than $20/t!

Looks like Canadian millers called the CWB bluff... so much for the monopoly!

WHat will this weeks PRO's be at, Initials?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

I was looking at the CPS Red fall 03 prices ($169.24/t) vs. CWSWS fall 03 prices ($193.25/t) yet cash prices have never even come close to this spread...

What exactly is the CWB up to here?

How can the CWB claim its pool, PPO's and initial prices are giving accurate market signals?

[charliep]

I will leave to others to comment on spreads.

Realizing this comment is a little late (horse has left the barn on new crop feed wheat but still worth consdering), my strategy for CPS wheat would be to sign new crop deferred delivery contracts (above the CWB PRO) and use some of the higher returns to buy KCBT wheat calls later this spring/early summer if you are bullish prices.