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Greg Arason's presentation to the House of Commons Ag. Committee

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    Greg Arason's presentation to the House of Commons Ag. Committee

    Hi everyone,

    Here is something you might find interesting. Chuck Strahl's own hand-picked CWB CEO corrects misinformation about Algerian durum wheat sales.

    Thanks.
    --------------------------------------

    Appearance before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Agriculture and Agri-Food.

    Presentation by Greg Arason, Interim President and CEO of the Canadian Wheat Board

    March 1, 2007

    Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
    I would like to thank the Committee for inviting me to speak to you today.

    As many of you know, this is my second tour of duty at the helm of the CWB. I took on the challenge of leading the organization at this crucial and controversial time because I thought that I could make a positive contribution to the CWB’s operations and marketing efforts. I believe in the CWB. I believe in the important role that it has in maximizing farmer returns. I believe in the CWB as a major, world class supplier of wheat, durum and barley to the global grain trade.

    I indicated, at the time of my appointment, that my intention was to stay out of the politics of the single desk. My focus, as interim CEO, was going to be – and has been – to sell grain and to make sure that the organization runs smoothly. I have not strayed from that original commitment nor will I stray from it today.

    However, when factual inaccuracies about the CWB’s performance find their way into a public forum, I believe it is my right and my duty to correct that information. One example of such an inaccuracy relates to the CWB’s business relationship with Algeria and I understand that is the reason I was called here before you today.
    A number of parties, including Members of Parliament, have recently stated publicly and in printed material that the CWB has been underselling the market for durum wheat. This information is not factual and appears to have originated from material circulated by the U.S. Wheat Associates, a longstanding critic of the CWB.

    CWB directors have access to detailed sales information on a regular basis. Through this process, the directors can assure themselves that the CWB is in fact obtaining fair value in relation to the values available to its international competitors. The mandate of the CWB is to maximize returns to producers and to develop strong and sustainable relationships with its customers around the world. By continually monitoring sales performance, the board of directors can determine whether CWB management is in fact meeting those objectives.

    I would like to state unequivocally that sales of durum to Algeria have been made at competitive market prices, which are not discounted or low. Our client in Algeria – the Office Algérien Interprofessionnel des Cereales or OAIC has confirmed that fact, as do regular CWB sales reports reviewed by the board of directors.
    There have also been accusations that the CWB is underselling the market compared to what is being achieved by Ontario farmers. It has been suggested that, as of late January, an Ontario farmer selling hard red spring wheat with 13.5 per cent protein would receive $5.50 per bushel, whereas a grower on the Prairies selling No. 1 CWRS would receive about $4.40 per bushel as a final pool return—approximately $1.10 less. The implication is that this suggests poor performance by the CWB. That implication is incorrect because of several errors in the comparison.

    To begin with, a spot price (the Ontario price) is being compared to a pool value (the CWB Pool Return Outlook). This is a misleading comparison. A pool value is by definition an average of prices achieved over an entire crop year. In a rising market such as we have experienced so far this crop year, a spot price is always higher than a pooled price. Is the CWB selling wheat at those “high” Ontario values and returning those dollars to farmers? Yes. In fact, CWB values are even higher.
    The source of the spot price of $5.50 per bushel is not indicated but it is undoubtedly a price at or near an Ontario mill. An appropriate comparison would be, therefore, the current price of let’s say Saskatchewan wheat landed at an Ontario mill. On February 5, the CWB offered eastern mills No.1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein for $230.47 per tonne at Thunder Bay. Add to this freight charges of $25 from Thunder Bay to the mill, and the landed price equals $255.47 per tonne or $6.95 per bushel.

    The comparison, then, is between $5.50 per bushel of hard red spring wheat to the Ontario farmer and $6.95 per bushel of hard red spring wheat to the Saskatchewan farmer. The truth, therefore, is the exact opposite of what has been contended: CWB prices are actually higher.

    This $6.95 per bushel would be added to the pooled payments western farmers receive for wheat sold throughout the 2006-07 crop year. However, if the farmer decided to price his wheat through one of the CWB’s Producer Payment Options, he or she could have locked in prices right around the $240 per tonne mark – backed off to a Saskatchewan location, this would have translated into returns of approximately $5.20 per bushel. To make the comparison even more valid, the price available to the Ontario farmer would also have to be backed off for freight, cleaning and elevation charges. Therefore, the posted price of $5.50 per bushel might, in fact, translate into a farmgate price very similar to what spot prices available through the CWB are, and this, in spite of the huge freight disadvantage that Prairie farmers face, relative to their Ontario counterparts when servicing eastern markets.

    Making inaccurate statements about sales values and our relationship with specific customers is damaging to our business and, as a consequence, damaging to western Canadian farmers. This is about business – it is not a political debate. And I believe very strongly – as the CWB’s entire board of directors believes very strongly – that any criticism of the CWB should be based on fact, not on vague innuendo circulated by Canada’s competitors. The marketing of Prairie wheat, durum and barley is a business – and a very competitive one – and at the CWB, we believe that farmers’ financial interests should come first.

    It is my hope that, in the future, efforts will be made to verify information of this nature with the CWB prior to its use and dissemination. Whatever political controversy surrounds the CWB’s single desk mandate, it should not prevent the flow of accurate information between the CWB and the federal government.

    At this time, I’d like to make a few brief comments on our marketing efforts to date. As you may know, earlier this week, the CWB unveiled its price projections for the upcoming crop year at GrainWorld, a major market outlook conference. While it is still very early, we are forecasting malting barley returns to be over $30 per tonne higher than current year’s prices due to tight supplies and steady demand. High quality durum and milling wheat values are also up over the current year.

    Shortly after being appointed to my position, I communicated with farmers that the CWB was ahead of target in marketing wheat and barley. I am pleased to say that is still the case.
    However, our ability to deliver on the sales that we have made is in serious jeopardy. I would be remiss if I did not mention to this committee the urgent situation we are facing as a result of the CN strike which compounded earlier movement difficulties on both CN and CP lines. Since farmers are captive to Canada’s two major railways, any significant delays on this system often result in farmers paying penalties for delayed loading of ocean vessels. During the strike, farmers are paying a few hundred thousand dollars a day. What we don’t see as a line item in our financial report however is the damage that these delays cause to farmers’ reputation to be a reliable supplier of the high quality product for which they are so well known.

    When the CN strike first occurred, we very quickly urged the government to intervene and impose back-to-work legislation. When we make those urgent requests, we are not crying wolf. Stoppages like what we have just experienced, combined with the ensuing delays that will occur as the system ramps up once more, are untenable for Prairie farmers.

    We need government to look seriously at this issue. We must have assurances that rail service can effectively recover from delays when they occur – and that both railways provide adequate service for grain movement on a sustainable basis.

    That concludes my comments. Thank you. I would now welcome any questions that the Committee may have.

    #2
    bsigg,

    As soon as our CWB offers the same sales options, on the same sales terms... on the exact same quality of wheat:
    At that point Mr. Arison will be able to fairly say the CWB is offering a premium... if it existed in that market.

    At the end of the day... the CWB is competitive, and obtains a reasonable price for CWRS sold in Ontario. Nothing less, nothing more.

    Just don't try to tell me the millers will pay $1/bu extra... for nothing extra. ADM doesn't pay the CWB any more than a competitive price... and every CWB Director and manager knows this to be true.

    Comment


      #3
      T4 , the large mills do pay top dollar for consistent large volumes whether that means they would buy from us at a higher price or just prefer our grain to another supplier at a similar price is hard to determine. Consistency and reliability is worth something in the milling process whether you believe it or not.

      Comment


        #4
        Cash returns in the farmers' pocket are worth something in the farming process whether you believe it or not.

        Parsley

        Comment


          #5
          "Shortly after being appointed to my position, I communicated with farmers that the CWB was ahead of target in marketing wheat and barley. I am pleased to say that is still the case."

          Perhaps, but 'ahead of target' doesn't refer to price this year, he's talking about the pace of sales being ahead of target in terms of volume sold for this time of year. Why should we care about that with the PRO for milling wheat below what ethanol plants and pigs will pay for it? Basically he's just admitted they sold too much too soon and missed the market this year. thanks.

          Comment


            #6
            Mr. Arason
            Same old story. Only the CWB knows the real truth and you shouldn't waste your time with anything that might contradict this. Yet at the same time the Board continually implies things that are not the truth. For example the story implies that a Saskatchewan farmer gets $6.95 per bushel for his wheat and that is simply not true. Quote To make the comparison even more valid the price offered to the Ontario farmer would have to be backed off for freight,cleaning and elevation. The spot price offered is after cleaning and elevation and represents what the farmer receives in his pocket. Freight(trucking) distance is not likely going to be much difference between a Saskatchewan farmer hauling to his nearest high throughput elevator and an Ontario farmer hauling to his nearest mill. We are forecasting malt barley returns to be over $30.00 higher than the current marketing year due to tight supplies and steady demand. Reality The CWB malt barley returns in the current crop year are about $30. per tonne lower than they should be because the CWB sold the majority of the crop early in the crop year.The continued doctoring of reality by the CWB is a good reason to continue to question staements from the CWB.

            Comment


              #7
              Your right Craig, Arason is using that famous CWB calculator that never seems to go back to the farm gate.

              He's also got a problem finding the source of the Algerian wheat story. It didn't originate with the US wheat associates it came from page six of the Dec. 17, 2006, La Liberté, Quotidien National D’Information.

              Which is odd, I thought the board said they did their own translation from the original. How do you do a translation from the original if you didn't see the original?

              I'm starting to agree with the board here, maybe Arason shouldn't be getting paid.

              Comment


                #8
                Pretty short explanation of the Algeria situation.

                Has there been confirmation of the supposed $6.95/bu sale into Thunder Bay?

                Just because it was offered does not mean it was bought or delivered.

                Comment


                  #9
                  bsigg: It wouldn't matter if Jesus Christ himself spoke before the House Committee, this group of ANTIS would pooh pooh it and call it distortion and lies.

                  Their mindset is static...too bad really.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    So now Greg Arason is Jesus, is that it?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      By the way, I consider myself a Pro not an Anti.

                      Pro Choice
                      and
                      Pro Wheat Board

                      I am not interested in killing the board, just in having choice.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Just sell your bin of feed barley and you will never have to worry about grain again.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Agstar77 says "the large mills do pay top dollar for consistent large volumes"

                          Let's say a big milling company - let's call it ADM for short - gets bullish and wants to cover a lot of its wheat needs for the whole year. Because they operate in both Canada and the US, they have two options.

                          Option (1) - buy from "the trade" in the US.
                          Option (2) - buy from the CWB in Canada.

                          If they go with door #1, they are showing a great deal of buying interest to the market. Market reacts - prices move higher.

                          If they go with door #2, the only one knowing there is a great deal of buying interest is the CWB. CWB action in the market - zero. Market reaction - zero. (No demand-driven price rally.)

                          This also applies to many smaller sales - not just one big one. (It's easier to explain it with one big one though.)

                          So Agstar, when a CWB customer like ADM or ConAgra (or China even) comes in for a large amount of wheat, how does the CWB or its directors know whether its a good price or not? <b>Can they determine during negotiations how much of a price rally they might be keeping from the market? Do they then factor that into the price? Do they factor that into the potential prices of future sales?</b> (I don't think so. I've seen the way the CWB offers deferred positions - spot price plus a bit of a carrying charge - which will not catch the kind of price move we are talking about here.)

                          So its very possible (no, likely) that when the CWB sells large amounts of wheat it actually mutes a market rally - which would be useful for both the sale its making and future ones.

                          Do CWB-sponsored studies take this into account in their modeling?

                          Futures markets 301: A fully functioning (futures) market must feel the impact of all buying and all selling. Otherwise, it is not a true reflection of the market.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Sorta like the Saint Lawrence asking price advertised in the Western Producer. Do they ever sell grain close to those prices?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              As you all know grain companies merge all the time, making bigger more powerful grain companies, every 3-5 years maybe longer. There has recently been a deal in the works between Richardson International and Agricore United. Before that Agricore merged with United Grain Growers to form Agricore United. Before that Alberta Pool merged with Manitoba Pool to form Agricore. Within 15 years or so ADM and Cargill will likely be the only grain companies left as they will have acquired all the other smaller companies.

                              Every few years these companies get bigger and more powerful and we the farmers are left with less ‘choice.’

                              ADM and Cargill have a long history of price-manipulation, price-fixing, and environmental destruction. Cargill and ADM are also recipients of large government subsidizes in the U.S.

                              Cargill in 1984 announced that it would import 1 million bushels of Argentinean Wheat into the U.S. market in order to lower the price. ADM and Cargill also though their government connections passed many polices that have hurt U.S. farmers. One of them was to remove the cap on how low grain prices could go.

                              I know you guys want choice, but if the CWB has to compete with these large grain companies, the grain companies will do or say anything to get the CWB out of their way. The CWB is the only thing that stands between the other 20% of global grain trading.

                              Another thing is that it is close to impossible to market your own grain, most likely you will have a grain company market your grain for you. So instead of the CWB marketing your grain, large grain companies that don’t give a damn about you will be doing it.

                              What part of going from single-desk selling, to single-desk buying sounds appealing to you?

                              The CWB extracts premiums higher than you would get on an open market. The CWBs operational costs are almost negligible, compared to the benefits.

                              The large companies have way more money that the CWB will ever have, how did they get all that money? It wasn’t from writing big cheques to farmers. It was from price-fixing, price manipulation, and corporate welfare.

                              Comment

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