It Froze In Argentina's Main Wheat Producing Province!

[SASKFARMER3]

Freezing temperatures developed Sunday morning in Argentina's most important wheat-growing district, Tres Arroyos, in the top wheat province Buenos Aires. Tres Arroyos (the city) reported a low of 31.3 F on Sunday morning. I do not have min temperature data for yesterday morning and this morning, so I do not yet know whether freezing temperatures repeated.

What does this mean? Daily average temperatures (max plus min divided by 2) have been averaging upper 50s-low 60sF during the past 3 weeks, suggesting that wheat jointing was advanced, and that heading may have begun in a few fields. Severe damage can occur with development that is this far along.

Wheat disasters arent over yet!

[SASKFARMER3]

Australia frost makes bad situation worse:
Patchy frost also occurred in parts of southeast Australia in the past couple of weeks. The city of Nhill in Victoria reported minimum temperatures in the mid 30sF on October 16 and again last week on October 23 and 24. Mid 30sF in the city translates into patchy frost in the country. If freeze damage occurred it would be a double-whammy, on top of a serious drought. Private crop estimates peg Aussie wheat at 12.1-12.8 mmt, way below a normal crop of 20-21 mmt but still higher than last year's 9.9 mmt drought disaster.

[jensend]

how many hours of 31.3 would you need to cause damage?

[silverback]

Judging by frost damage on wheat this year in our area - about 20 minutes.

[ado089]

If the frost hits the wheat while it is in flower it takes next to nothing to damage that flower and there will be nothing, not even shriveled kernals. I had that happen to me two years ago on some low spots on a late July frost. Luckily it was only in some half acre patchs but the damage was phenominal.

[SASKFARMER3]

back in 05 (not a frost year for us )We have a quarter with a ravine through it it drops about 15 feet then flat for 250 ft then a 15 foot rise through the whole quarter when we went to combine their was nothing i repeat nothing in this whole area the GPS maps showed that. Checked weather one night in early July it got down to plus 2 in our area.
Just a heads up wheat shouldn't be counted out yet. Their is only so much supply and the world is counting on a bumper crop to help increase supplies not rebuild.

[SASKFARMER3]

One more note watch overnight lows for Argentina this week end could be lower than posted earlier today.

[brian99]

I really think it happens sooner than 0 degrees C. The couple of years I've seen mid summmer cold snaps (but not freezing), the wheat didn't yield. I think below 5C stresses the plants and they never fully recover. Early season cold doesn't hurt and actually encourages tillering, but cool at flower; a bad deal.

[Kodiak]

This doesn't seem to be being picked up in the mainstream commodity news. Here's a recent Reuters story - no mention of frost. However if their registry of exports remains shut, or has significant restrictions, it doesn't change things much from the current situation.

Argentina poised to dent U.S. wheat exportsReuters Wednesday November 7 2007

By Lisa Shumaker
CHICAGO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat export sales will likely suffer if Argentina, as indicated by its government on Wednesday, resumes exporting wheat soon.
Although the government plans to raise export taxes to 28 percent, from the current 20 percent, Argentine wheat would still be cheaper than either U.S. or Russian grain delivered to most parts of the world, said U.S. wheat traders.
"They will be the seller to the world market for four weeks or six weeks," said a wheat exporter. "Their prices are going to be competitive to most parts of the world for a short period of time."
Argentine wheat was estimated to cost $300 per tonne free on board, compared with about $330 per tonne for U.S. hard red winter wheat, which is mainly used to make bread.
Argentina closed its wheat and corn export registry in March to curb spiraling domestic food prices.
When the registry reopens, Argentine exporters are expected to rush to make sales -- in case the government closes it again.
The big question for U.S. traders is whether the Argentine government reopens the registry with no restrictions or places limitations on sales abroad. Traders are also uncertain how much wheat Argentine exporters have already promised to customers, mainly millers in Brazil.
Under local law, exporters have to ask permission to sell grain abroad by applying to the registries.
"There's going to be a rush to get it nominated," said a U.S. wheat exporter. "It may come at them so fast they may shut it off again."

U.S. WHEAT ENJOYED LACK OF COMPETITION - U.S. wheat export sales have benefited in recent months from the lack of competition from Argentina and Australia, another major exporter. Drought in Australia cut the size of the crop in half and limited sales abroad.
U.S. wheat export sales in the marketing year that began June 1 are nearly double the pace of last year and already total 26.6 million tonnes.
Pressure has been mounting for the Argentine government to allow wheat exports as the 2007/08 harvest advances in the country, one of the top five wheat exporters in the world.
Argentina consumes about 5 million tonnes of wheat a year and the Agriculture Secretariat forecasts a crop between 14.5 million and 15.3 million tonnes.
Argentina is expected to export 9.5 million tonnes of new-crop wheat, down from 10.5 million in the 2006/07 season, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
World wheat crops in some key producing nations such as Australia have been hurt by weather this year and world wheat stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest level in 32 years, USDA said.
"Given what has already been sold from the Australian crop and the late-season collapse in the (Australian) crop size, it's pretty much Argentine wheat that is the only new wheat available on the world market coming up for this harvest," said Terry Roggensack, analyst with the Hightower Report in Chicago.
"The U.S. has some wheat left, and Argentina will have wheat," he said. "Besides that, Europe might hold a little around and have a little to sell at the end. But it's going to get really tight." (Additional reporting by Julie Ingwersen and Christine Stebbins in Chicago, editing by Matthew Lewis)