What Spring Run OFF!

[SASKFARMER3]

Just back from another trip and with the way the weather has been in March with -3 to -8 to 10 etc we are having a slow melt. Now even in our area with lots of snow the run off is minimum. Sloughs will be down. Yes one big April shower and were all back but right now this perception that Canada is going to grow a huge crop is Crap. I would say that 2/3 of the Prairies are going to have virtually no run off. Check the Environment soil maps. Plus with a cold winter in January and Dec lots of ground will have lost moisture due to freezing etc.
If their is a line from Brandon to Saskatoon to Calgary South that area is at Risk.
The weather pattern has changed since last October and its not wetter but dryer.http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/prpwi08_e.htm or even add in since last fall and its dry from SE manitoba border to Peace River.
It might be Canada with the Wreck in 08 and the Rest of the World will make money on Grain Prices.

[boarderbloke]

what run off, no kidding! the little moisture left in the dehydrated snow runs no more than four feet! in this area we didn't receive one snow fall(this winter) greater than an inch, that didn't come with a 40K wind or stronger! but even the snow melt in the bluffs is disappearing. the last three falls, we've missed any substantial rain to recharge the soil, however the two previous springs we were lucky to get plenty of rain in Apr, May & June(to the point where it was much more than needed or wanted) can those spring rains come three years in a row, i don't know, but what i do know, is if we don't get the rains, more than avg, we'll be toast this summer, direct seeding won't even help! SE SK
( It would be great for others to mention what area they're writing from, if responding to here SF3 post)

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree their is very little moisture in the snow that is their and when it did snow it blew into the trees. Now yes in NE central Sask we had excellent fall rain, screwed up harvest but filled soil. Funny thing the dugout has dropped this winter and so has the local sloughs, well is only 14 ft from the surface was 8 at beginning of winter.
If replying list area please.

[Hopperbin]

North East of Central. Normal good snow cover here, but noticed that when I was digging out the sprayer and cultivator today there is not much frost so the soil can soak up some moisture. We should have good germination moisture. Just a little to the south like only 20 miles there is much less snow.

[SASKFARMER3]

Just back from Assiniboia and their is no snow drove out to the Air drill and out in pasture Dugout done last fall never filled. Same till moose jaw. And these guys north of Moose-jaw are paying 9000 a quarter for rent.

[freewheat]

Applied NH3 in fall to try to dry out the muddy soil. We have received lots of snow, and will have a normal or above runoff. Last year seeded less than half due to wet, am getting concerned about seedability this year. was down to Moose Jaw on the weekend, very little snow from there to Elfros. No stubble showing at home, summerfallow covered, with lots of three plus foot drifts out there. Today the high was -1, we still can't break 0, the snow is keeping the warming to a minimum. Before seeding, I have to fix all the four foot deep erosion gulleys from last summer, which ran until july 17th. So some areas are dry, some too wet. Not many places are optimal. But it could still rain. You southerners, keep it to yourselves! if it rains in april and may here, we're sunk for the third year in a row. i can't sleep at nights worrying about my nitrogen leaching away this spring.

Send us a drought, Moose Jaw, and we'll send you the rains...

[freewheat]

Sorry, I'm at Kelvington.

[bucket]

9000 rent north of moose jaw try 12000.

I was at White Mud resources the other day and if my truck thermometer hadn't said -6c and I didn't know it was the middle of march, I would have been wondering why no one was seeding.

If it doesn't rain it could get ugly.

I think I will hold on to anything that isn't committed and the cwb will be getting the minimum to fill the contracts. I will price grain on the weather forecasts this year.

[JACKFLASH]

Dudes! here it is, just got back from California, thats all they say, kind of like a bud light commercial... But here it is, soil moisture low in the southeast. We have enough to germinate a crop, hope for rains/ snow. Target date start seeding is Apr. 21 st. RR canola.

[Jay-mo]

Here in southwest Manitoba fields with standing stubble would likely on average have 25% snow cover left with some puddles in lower areas. Any standing water will be gone before the frost even comes out unless we get more snow or alot of spring rain.
I would say for mid-april those that direct seed will be fine for startup moisture but subsoil moisture will be at a premium without some timely spring showers.

[CodFather]

Was travelling Highway 2 in Alberta 10 days ago. South of Calgary, almost no snow. North of Calgary, snow where the sun has a hard time to get at it and the higher banks in the open.

By the time I got close to Penhold, you could practically see a line in the field separating the southern dry zone from the northern snow zone. Snow on the fields from there north to Edmonton.