grain prices and supply

[SASKFARMER3]

Its hard for an investor to go home at Easter and tell the family that they are going to loose their house come April 1 st.
China is always up to something they need lots of food and will do any thing to get it. That is a scary thought.

[bgmb]

I think we need to put things in perspective. Grain prices were horribly low for too long, and most of the world got used to taking food for granted.

Now biofuels and a couple crop failures have wiped out the cushion. Panic has set in for the first time in years. That coupled with Ho&ny commodity fund managers drove the markets through the roof.

A little while ago i was reading an article from a popular analyst who proclaimed that the new floor for canola was $600/t haha.... The guys that listen to him are the ones paying retarded cash rents.

My game plan for next year is to do pretty much the same thing I always do;

1) Forward price 30-50% of my crop before harvest to generate cash flow if the prices are profitable for my farm.

2) Grow the most grain for the lowest cost.

3) Try not to get screwed on my inputs.

4) stick to a fairly normal rotation that has been working for me.

[cottonpicken]

Dec 13-if we get a 67% increase we get 774,i still owe wedino a bottle but my point will be made.

67% is not a fibonacci number,i meant 61.8%,should have double checked before posting.

Canola high from latest rally 769.20,i think.

Corrections in bull markets are SUPPOSE to happen.Nothing in the fundementals has changed,its only gotten better.

Instead of a seller of commodities i am now a buyer.

[cottonpicken]

I agree with Cp. I said a few weeks ago that we would make another run higher, but didn't the we could test the old highs. After seeing 2 weeks of trading I think we could test the old highs. There are alot of gaps to be filled.

The only thing that's going to be frustrating is that it's going to take time. Lets not forget that what happened this week had nothing to do with the grains themselves, it was all because of the US economy.

Bgmb, I agree with what you said about grains being to cheap. Only thing I disagree with you on is that you don't think these prices will stay.

I'm not sure what the new floor will be in Canola, but I do know $6.00 is history.

Just like we will never see $30 crude again.

Watch next week as Corn will lead us out of this mess, when they realize the weather problems south of the border!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Cotton and Snappy I agree and am trying to get it through these guys that the fundamentals are their even if large crops are produced consumption will eat it up. So one glitch any where in the world and BOOM its off to the races. Talking about how big a crop one country will produce two months before its seeded is ridiculous. (Australia largest crop in Decade seeding is May) It will be a slow increase to the next wave but its coming.
Their are lots of Factors and China is one huge one. They need food that's it in a nutshell and they will do any thing to get it cheap.