CWB's little black book

[mcfarms]

It's kinda like getting to mark your own exams.

[agstar77]

An irrefutable fact posted by an anonymous L. Weber to a chat board.

[gregpet]

Well Agstar77, I believe you are a director. What about the information I gathered. Is it the truth, close to the truth or way off base?

[furrowtickler]

typical response agstar, back it up with your facts!

[bucket]

burbert

You criticize these guys that are trying to market their own grain.

Here's what I see. A marketing team in Winnipeg that has completely misread the current crop and cost us billions of dollars. I would be okay with it if they just had the balls to admit their mistakes and the people responsible would quit without looking for a monster severance. They misread the frost in Kansas last april, the drought in western canada and nobody loses their job.

To be fair a ratio should be established. Number of farmers lost to the number of cwb employees required.

Accepting responsibilty would go a long way in my eyes about competence and accountabilty.

[stubblejumper]

I don't think there is one of these so called marketers who actually want to market grain. All they really want to do is price grain into the US market taking away this shared premium from the rest of us.

[gregpet]

Again, what is the premium. The one determined by the CWB itself? Why is the internal audit be prolonged, delayed, avoided, etc.. by the CWB? What is there to hide?

[LWeber]

Hey Agstar

Thats Larry Weber

larry@webercommodities.com

How anon is that?

Everyone in the world knows what the bored sells grain for except western Canadian farmers. Commercially sensitive - right.

Send me an email from a real email account with your real name along with Agstar77 in the subject and i will forward you the email.

Two questions:

How is it that when the bored sells wheat, the rest of the world knows what it is sold for?

When you are checking those premiums, are you checking what the export bid/offers are?

[Vader]

Bucket,

Your remarks about the lack of foresight on the part of CWB marketers is astounding.

The CWB is still marketing wheat and durum at these incredibly high prices as evidenced by the fact that last months PRO rose by nearly a dollar a bushel.

CWB PRO's for durum are $2.20 per bushel higher than the reported weighted average selling price in North Dakota and $2.47 higher on spring wheat. An interesting comment I heard directly from one American farmer was that the frost in Kansas kept him from filling his 2007 contract and now his 2008 production will be going to fill his 2007 contract at values below $5.00 per bushel. Another American farmer told me that they are afraid of forward contracting any significant portion of their crop for fear of a repeat of last years frost.

Farmers in North Dakota saw spring wheat prices climb from $5.00 in August to over $7.00 in December and sold the vast majority of their grain at prices that were at that time not only attractive but profitable. Durum wheat prices over the same period climbed from $7.00 to $13.00. The reported weighted average selling prices for North Dakota farmers is $6.50 for DNS 14 and $10.45 for #1 HAD. The North Dakota farmers who sold in that time frame did rather well pricing into those rising markets not having the hindsight we have today.

The CWB took a different view of the market and a more disciplined approach to selling and gleaned a substantial premium over these reported weighted average selling prices.

Bucket you say that the CWB cost you billions of dollars. On the contrary the CWB earned you (the farmers of Western Canada) Billions of dollars. In fact on a 5 million tonne durum program, using a premium of $90 per tonne, and a 15 million tonne wheat program, using a premium of $80 per tonne that calculates into a premium of 1.65 Billion Dollars.

You can argue that the PRO's may change between now and the end of the crop year. Our dollar may continue to appreciate against the US dollar which would erode premiums. The commodity market may cool off and the CWB may not be able to sell the remaining stocks at these high levels. In fact buyers are few and far between at these lofty levels. The figure of 1.65 billion may be somewhat optimistic or the markets may move the other direction and the number could go higher. A few more days and we will see the March PRO's which will give us more certainty about the remainder of the marketing year.

No matter how you slice it. It has been a long time since a cash infusion of this magnitude has hit Western Agriculture. And it has been probably 30 years since this amount of additional cash has come to the farmers of Western Canada from the market sources rather than the Government.

The CWB Rocks!!!!!

[Fransisco]

And how'd you do against the simple average price?

[Fransisco]

I know that when it comes to malting barley you haven't been able to beat even the simple average price when comparing farm-gate returns between Alberta farmers and the Golden Triangle in Montana.

You're not doing anybody any favours out here Rod/Vader. Give it up and let us sell our own grain already.

You have no moral argument and you have no economic argument.

[Fransisco]

And oh yeah...

THE CWB SUCKS!