CWB's little black book

[cottonpicken]

Everything, to my knowledge. Nice start tonight.

Beans up 30
Corn up 8
CBOT Wheat up 15
Oats up 8
MGEX up 5-7
Crude down 80cents
Canadian $ down to 97.51

Not to say we still can't see sell off, but just talked to my broker, and lots of people stepping in and buying tonight.

After a long weekend it is always scary, if we come out selling this thing hard. That tells me after a weekend of eating ham and eggs, the big players still think this Commodity Bull is dead. We come out buying like we did at tonights open, this tells me after all the ham and eggs they've realized some important factors in this Bull market still JUST CAN"T BE IGNORED!!

[gregpet]

So can I gather from Vader's and Agstar's refusal to refute my information on the CWB's black book that their assertion of achieving premium prices is myth created by the CWB itself and is nonexistent?

No more discussion needed on mythical CWB premiums!

[Vader]

I'll be honest. I was using information that was provided by staff for the Farmer Forum presentations. I will be asking for the core data and the methodology to back this up. I think this is an extremely important issue. Many here on agri-ville have said that if they could be shown the premiums earned by the CWB they would gladly back down. We'll see.

In the meantime I still stand on my statement that the CWB has earned in the range of 1.5 billion dollars in premiums.

[Fransisco]

So you were presenting information to farmers and didn't have a clue as to where it came from or how the numbers were arrived at?

Very professional Rod.

I look forward to seeing your "evidence".

[chaffmeister]

What Evader is arguing is that all you pro-choice boys should just shut up and enjoy the fruits of the CWB (and thank him along the way). This is based on the idea that the CWB has not sold as much (and as early) as the wheat farmers in North Dakota. The CWB is still selling at lofty prices yet the poor North Dakota farmer is sold out and can’t take advantage of these prices.

This is all to say “The CWB has done this – and you would not have”.

But what about canola growers’ marketing – after all, these are the same farmers that Evader is telling “you would have sold all your wheat by now”.

As of Mar 9th (shipping week 32), Western Canadian canola growers had delivered 6.08 million tonnes of canola into the elevator system and to the crushers.

6.08 mmt represents about 60% of the total canola supply available from western Canadian farms.

This leaves about 40% of the on-farm supply of canola still to be delivered.
I estimate about 10% of the remaining 40% on-farm is already sold, leaving about 36% of the crop left to sell.
And guys have already sold newcrop too.

Cool, huh?

(Evader – if you want to know how I got these estimates, I’ll make you a deal. You show me yours, I’ll show you mine.)

Evader – they haven’t sold out their canola.

Why in the world would you insult farmers by assuming they would have sold out their wheat by now?


Evader said:
“Farmers in North Dakota saw spring wheat prices climb from $5.00 in August to over $7.00 in December and sold the vast majority of their grain at prices that were at that time not only attractive but profitable.”

How many of these farmers bought spring wheat futures at the time they sold their wheat? Does your data bank have a number on that?

And Evader said:
“The CWB took a different view of the market and a more disciplined approach to selling and gleaned a substantial premium over these reported weighted average selling prices.”

The CWB didn’t take a different view. Don’t insult us with that crap. We all know the CWB simply sells a programmed amount throughout the crop year – it’s what the CWB calls “risk management”.

Few more points that come to mind:

1. The US system is different than ours. They have much more commercial storage than we do and they tend to deliver sooner in the crop year. But farmers can replace the physical with paper (futures) and so have still benefited from the price rally that way.

2. Most canola farmers sell out each year – likely even more will this year. How’s the CWB system working on that one, Evader? Gonna sell out this year’s spring wheat crop?

3. It’s not so simple as you make it out, Evader. Perhaps some guys would sell more wheat up front in order to hold onto canola, or peas – expecting a bigger rally in those crops. Or vice versa. Even with their "wheat-hand" tied behind their back, they’re doing a great job arbitraging all the non-CWB crops. Just imagine what they’d do with total marketing freedom.



To para-phrase a line from Blazing Saddles (with apologies to Mel Brooks): “Wheat board? We don’t need no stinking wheat board!”

[TOM4CWB]

Chaffmeister,

Be nice now... I know it is tempting... but be nice!

Very good on the factual points... until the CWB can show us the money... on a daily cash sale based system... it will be near impossible to convince the 'average' marketing choice grower in the 'designated area' that the CWB procures a premium.

1.) We fight a big hurdle on grading... the US system procures a much greater value for their wheat producer;

2.) The US Grainco's use a basis system to draw wheat to fill the customer's/consumer's needs... and have a logistics system that responds and drives the produce to where it is needed;

3.) We have a regulated system... that is used by many international customer's/consumer's as a back up... they know the CWB will hold the stocks at no charge... at the 'designated area' wheat growers expense. I had a UK miller tell this to my face, and grin.

I asked in Provost... when Chairman Ritter and co talked about the 3.5mmt of wheat carryout... who was going to pay for the inventory value lost... because the CWB was forcing us to hold it in reserve... there was no answer forthcomming... that was for sure.

I very much appreciate your good work and thoughtful posting Chaffmeister... Have a great EASTER... thanks for taking the time to respond!

Would you like to get together on Wednesday if you are in the greater Winterpeg?

[gregpet]

Vader, thanks for your reply.

What about the internal audit that is being delayed? Why is this happening? What is being covered up?

[chaffmeister]

gregpet:

What internal audit? Did I miss something?

[bucket]

Vader

I watched one of those news shows like W5 a while back about salesman who use the line "to be honest with you" or "I'll be honest". Then the researched those lines with some professionals.

Its an indication you are lying. As a want to be politician you really have to sharpen up.

you are as dull as a butter knife.

Get a gameboy or a DS and then use brain quest to sharpen those skills. there is obviously to much CO2 in the board room.

[gregpet]

If you read my initial post there is an internal audit, that is being blocked by the CWB, about this so called black book and the process as to how these prices are determined and the reporting to the board. Correct me if I am wrong Vader? Agstar?

[mcfarms]

I've sat back and watched this argument on here for what? 10 years, to me to this debate isn't so much value of sales and who creates the value but timing of sales and who makes that timing decision. ( the price is part of the timing) If the board can get a premium for aggregation, quality control and brand recognition they then add value and I'd be prepared to work with them. I think what people are asking for here is to somehow put the ability and responsibilty for timing of sales more into the producers hands. For both wheat and Barley sales.

Am I on the right track?

[liberty]

What astounds me is that despite having been on the board of directors for a number of years, it has taken until now for Vader to ask for the core data and methodology behind the CWB's "black book".

I would have thought this would have been a priority for someone who is truly interested in establishing the truth about the CWB's claims that the single desk captures premiums that a multiple seller/buyer environment can't.

[mcfarms]

Again this whole thread speaks more to timing of sales than value of sales. Can I reach out and get a "premium " at a time when everyone else is not selling becasue they feel the offers are to low?

[parsley]

How soon we get distracted by the likes of Vader.


The debate is, and always has been about farmers being able to sell what they grow, what they own.

Period.

Liken it to being able to sell the land you own.


Or perhaps you approved of the Saskatchewan Land Bank experiment.

I'm sure, in retrospect, the likes of Vader would.

They'll have "seen the light", because Blakney would have shown him the Gov't books in the back room, disguised with a green lightbulb, and all those columns of red figures would seem acceptable because they were not red.


The CWB......there is only one issue.


Prices, timing, province, season, present spouse, or currency....none of them matter unless farmers, themselves, have the right to sell what they own, when they want, to whom they want.

Nothing else matters.

Nothing difficult about it IF farmers can stay focused on the important issue instead of chasing side-issues like timing etc. Good grief.

Parsley

[chaffmeister]

parsley:

If you want to win this political battle, you'll need more than the ideological argument. Those opposed to "choice" simply don't get it and saying "it's my grain, it's my right" over and over isn't going to sway them.

The fiscal, financial, economic or performance argument is where the CWB argument will be seriously "injured".

If anything, Evader and the CWB have been distracted. They are now engaged in an argument that they can only win if we get complacent and let up. Trust me.