Who Makes Money On Volatility?

[cottonpicken]

Last summer?

Jim rodgers,monty guid,peter shiff,david duval,jim sinclair,richard russel and cottonpicken to name a few.

The volitility is a symptom of a situation.
Whats the situation?
Excess liquidity looking for a return over inflation.
The only show on earth now worth watching is the us bond market and the us dollar.All the kings men cant put those humpties back together again.

Guess what happens when those implode.

[bduke]

I googled the names you provided CP...these people are not "ag economists or ag specialists"....I was referring to grain marketing. Yes, you were the first person I consider "ag related" to predict the Grain and Oilseeds (G&O) dramatic rise. That is why I asked for two or three names. If we were to recognize the predicted precious metals rise to be correlated to G&O buoyancy, I could have provided names also....such as John Embry of Sprott Capital or Don Coxe of BMO Harris. So I give you full credit for you perceptiveness and courage to state hard numbers....very well done!.

Regarding the capital chase of real returns, profits above inflation, I agree that is the current situation. The sub-prime, ABCP, derivitive mess was mostly driven by the enticement of greater rates facilitated by tranched and re-sliced "junk" mortgages being tagged on to investment grade paper and the rating agencies maintained the ratings as before their additions based upon probability of default. The mortgage interest rates are disporportionally higher at the lowest ratings,even considering "normal" probability of default.

You are also warning of a US driven depression. I think it depends if the funds determine the markets are bottoming before Ben gets to 0%. Inflation is often used to reduce the value of debt as well.

So....thanks for your comments CP, and again,..well done!.....Bill

[cottonpicken]

Yes and No.

A delightful rebutall so few and far between.

John Embry was a name i've always held back.

So few as keen.

Nice to see you catching up to the curve..and again well done...cottonpicken.

Why dont you make a name for yourself and predict something that hasnt happened,instead of regurgitated econimist/bloomberg stories.

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

DISCRETION IS THE BETTER PART OF VALOUR!

[TOM4CWB]

AGSTAR77

CWB CHEQUES have not 'bounced'... but who pays for the lack of risk management in place at the CWB?

'Designated area" grain growers...;

In Basis levels on FPC that cross transfer 100's of millions to poolers...

How can the CWB claim that there is no connection in pricing between FPC/PPO's and the Pools?

Explain to us how exactly the CWB hedges the pool and PPO's ... and how the accounting system keeps these two systems seperate through to sale of the cash grain (FPC/DPC hedged produce vs Pooled sales) at the day of actual grain sale?

So how does the CWB decide who takes the hit on futures that lost big $$$... at time of cash sale of the wheat... when the grower cannot fairly liquidate a FPC position... and the pool/CWB gets to keep the futures gain in the hedge when a gain occured?

Do you understand how this works Agstar77?

[bucket]

One thing is for sure - the CWB does NOT make money on volatility or at any other time for western farmers period.

[agstar77]

Try this link, very good article on disconnect between futures and cash. NYtimes.com/2008/03/28/business/2commodities.html?_r=18ref=todayspaper&0ref=slogin . Diana B. Henriques, Todays N.Y. times.

[agstar77]

T4 I don't use the risk management options and since I am not on the B.O.D. , I cannot answer all your questions nor can I judge whether they are valid. All I can say is that if you want someone to cover your risk, you have to pay a price. Is that price fair? I really can't say. Would you pay a similar premium under an open market, possibly.

[agstar77]

Further to the Conagra deal, one of the perks for the acquiring hedgefunds, is the intelligence on grain movement. Conagra is responsible for commodity transport. So if you know the volume of transport, you can aid your commodity trades. Very interesting, so the farmer is on the bottom of the food chain!

[parsley]

Nope. In organics, the farmer is at the top of the food chain.

Parsley

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar77,

The $22/bu that we were offered for our wheat in Coutts... is proof enough... that the Canadian system of grading, basis, and delivery is not extracting any kind of premium for our farm.

It is about time we all woke up... again... and understood our over regulated mess of a marketing system needs a major overhaul... As if we didn';t know.

Guess what the stats are for total farms that gross over $250,000 per year in Alberta... in the 2006 Stats Can census...

7,500 of us left.

That should tell us all a BIG story.

The system is broken... I don't see the CWB doing anything to help fix our problems.

Now... once again... we are told no DPC's for 2008 crop... the CWB is backing away from cash pricing that is market driven and responsive to international pricing.

There is a major risk management capacity problem at the CWB.

[agstar77]

Similar stats for U.S. farmers invalid reasoning on your part. Increase in farm size due to the squeeze on margins an the inability of individuals to get into farming. Add to that the aging farm population and you have your reason for farm # decrease.

[TOM4CWB]

Agstar77,

I suppose you didn't answer my question... because you are admitting the CWB has done nothing to make our situation better for young grain growers...

In fact for those who took FPC... and got an extra $60/t deducted from their take home payment... over and above what US growers got deducted... how do you reconcile your CWB position that it 'helps' young grain growers get started?

How does bringing down folks to the lowest common denominator... help young grain growers make ends meet?

Where exactly is the premium... the CWB has promised to extract for us... especially on our FPC's?