Chinese buying

[bucket]

When are Chinese coming back to buy product?

I think they have played their strategy quite well and if prices don't start improving I think chemfallow might be an option.

Why? Inputs are not going down but returns are. If they don't want product this year maybe a reduction in production would enlighten them.

Have the supply/demand fundamental changed in the last few weeks????

[Hopperbin]

Not to underestimate them I think they threw the curling game. Don't ask why.
Probably a pr thing.
Supply and demand have changed.

[bucket]

How have s/d changed?

[SASKFARMER3]

Simply the market feels that all the experts are predicting a bumper crop that is not even seeded yet all over the world.
WHAT A CROCK OF SHIP!
But hey that's why grain market is a big CASINO.
My one hope this year is that the world really doesn't produce a crop at all even us in CANADA.
Then lets see what happens its tight and they know it their just shaking the tree.
And the nuts are falling.

[parsley]

Here are a few interesting thoughts quoted from Callum Downs Commodity Newsletter:

QUOTE

"Some Crystal Ball Gazing for 2008

Here is how I think it will pan out

1. When we get to October/November US futures will be lower than now. That will not be an issue because we will have good December swaps coverage in place to cover that (if we get to finish this year’s sale program).

2. However, prices will still be good, and early in this harvest period basis levels will be high as traders compete to attract growers to make sales. We will recognise this and make sales of physical wheat. We will target wheat not covered by swaps in the first
instance.

3. At the end of November swaps will expire and all unsold wheat will be exposed to moves in US futures.

4. As harvest gets underway the capital resources of all grain buyers (yes all – even the big multinationals. We already have news from Canada that Cargill are
changing their trading with farmers because of the very high and volatile grain prices) will be stretched. To
slow the rate of farmer selling cash prices will fall, and fall relative to US futures (ie basis will fall). No-one
should sell during this period.

5. Because global stocks will still be tight, the “risk” is that US futures will tend to gain ground over the period out to the end of February. For this reason we will not
need any March swaps.

6. Unsold wheat will be either stored for later sale or pooled. In case we are wrong about the upward trend
in futures into our autumn, we will deliver some wheat to the best looking pool.

7. Because we are going to deliver some wheat to a pool we can commit to that process any time from now until
harvest, particularly if the pool operators are offering additional returns for signing up early. The early pools may in fact provide some price management between now and harvest, as well as during harvest. Make sure that the washout costs in any pools are small in case of crop failure." UNQUOTE


Parsley

[agstar77]

S3 it's not a game it's a Casino?

[agstar77]

Hedge funds are being washed out due to higher margin calls . After all the dust settles we will go back to looking at supply and demand, maybe. Consensus is we are still in a long term bull for commodities , just not this week.