Markets

[charliep]

Chicago July Corn 9.0 cents
Chicago July Beans 13.5 cents
Chicago July Wheat 22.5 cents
Kansas City July Wheat 18.5 cents
Minneapolis July Wheat 10.5 cents

USDA out in the morning. Could be a classic buy the rumour - sell the fact - if not - look out.

[charliep]

Those were all UP - it didnt like my plus sign

[charliep]

What an amazing day! I am glad the USDA reports weren't bullish.

I'll get your thoughts Larry but I would be putting people on alert to do some pricing on this rally (particularly if a farmer hasn't done any pricing yet). A combination of North American weather that is good (not perfect in some regions US mid west) and a loonie that is headed higher make me nervous.

An area I will highlight is the CWB producer pricing options. I think this is a good opportunity to lock in a decent fall price. Too nervous to pull the trigger/need a backstop for your decision - look at buying some out of the money wheat calls/Canadian dollar puts.

[charliep]

I was just trying to get the debate back to Markets.

We need a section for Politics and one for Commodity Marketing

Thanks, Charlie.

[crusher]

Unfortunately, most of the action is in the US. My new crop net farm prices are $7.70:canola - tempting, CPS/CWB PPO $3.50 - not interested, HRS/CWB PPO $4.70 - not interested, nonboard bly - $2.25 - not interested. Charlie, I'm nor going to lock in lousy margins this early in the game. Stocks are too low, as well as my soil moisture reserves.

[charliep]

Can't disagree with anything you have said. Perhaps why I am becoming more cautious in my recommendations. The pricing decision has to be coached in terms of your breakevens (based on realistic yields taking in consideration moisture), how much pricing has been done already and other risk management tools you have utilized (i.e. AFSC spring price endorsement).

We are entering the weather silly season (this week is a sign of things to come). A realignment of the US dollar relative to other currencies (including the loonie) is also offering new challenges.

I encourage everyone to monitor the markets carefully (not hours everyday but rather a concentrated time in the morning when you review a newsletter or a time set aside to listen to radio program that you find value in) and to have pricing targets in mind where you are prepared to pull the trigger. A trusted advisor you can call from a cell phone for quick updates is also a good tool.

This is a time of the year when I don't mind seeing farmers using grain pricing orders.