Stats Canada Seeding intention?

[SASKFARMER3]

Stats Canada comes out Monday with the seeding intentions for Canada.
I feel we will see the following.
1- Durum increase substantially in southern areas, Why because farmers feel they will be able to capture a high price like the Americans got this year. If the price goes through the roof this year in ND and Montana but not through the CWB Border clashes will happen.
2- HRS will be down, as a CWB crop farmers see that their is no future for this crop in Canada as long as the CWB is in place and controls our destiny.
3- Barley will be down again because of the uncertainty around what is happening with the CWB.
4- Canola will be up but not by the amounts the industry is thinking.
5- Flax will be higher due to Fall prices that could be locked in. Less cost than Canola plus south can grow good yields.
6- Mustard Up again due to fall prices that are available. Again 5 and 6 will take acres in the southern areas from Canola.
7- Peas, Will see a huge I mean Huge increase its coming and we have to admit it. Prices are excellent (9 at 55 =$500 acre)
8- Oats is the one crop that will see a substantial decrease in Alberta, Sask southern and western and Manitoba. It could be the sleeper heard a guy talking $5.00 if corn doesn't get a good crop.
9-Wheat for ethanol will be same or down it just seems to me this is going to slip.
10- Lentils and Chickpeas and Canary seed could also be the sleepers since Turkey is dry etc. but acreage could be down.
My predictions lets see what happens.

[charliep]

Will add my two bits to get discussion going.

Agree with your assessment SK3 with the following differences.

Given cost side and club root in Alberta, canola stable to down slightly. Will be watching weather with delayed seeding (realize only April 20) likely to add to the reduction somewhat. This is a year of managing risk when all crops offer profit potential and high costs will impact some crops more than others.

CWRS wheat down slightly. Easy/low cost crop to grow with profit potential as long as willing to put up with the CWB constraints. Alternative wheats (CPS, SWS and for sure CWRW) up as farmers react to the array of marketing alternatives these crops offer (ethanol, feed, CWB, etc.). Wheat ex durum acres up slightly.

Barley and oats. Confused but agree. Easy and cheap crops to grow versus lower profit potential in budgets. Will be watching seeding pace.

Pulses, flaxseed, etc - agree with your assessment.

[SASKFARMER3]

Confused on Oats! Their was some market genius from US on Radio Friday and he was taking about the low acreage in US the demand and Canadian farmers licking their wounds from last years crop on prices. (it was a dead horse)
I don't think we will see 5 but this guy sure did.

[bucket]

what I find amazing is there is more acres to be seeded.

A drop of 300000 acres in summerfallow but a million more acres seeded.

Last time I drove around more grass has been seeded in the last 3 years - acres can't go up.

UNLESS some of the silly cattlemen decided to break up grass that took years to establish and try to grow a crop. Take the licking on your cattle now it pay off in spades if you stick with your 5,10 and 15 year plans. I have watched more guys jump in and out of trends only to lose their shirts.

[grassfarmer]

Bucket, Don't underestimate the magnitude of the beef sector's problems and the affect that may have on seeding intentions. "Sticking with a 5,10 or 15 year plan" implies we are going through a period of low profitability. We are not - most are in a severe loss situation and could not cashflow their businesses until (if)better times may develop.
There has been a huge sell off in the cow/calf sector and an increase in feeders exported live to the US. Something must come in and fill that land use vaccum. Almost all the mixed farms I know will be increasing crop acres at the expense of their cattle operations. The biggest change in my area will be ploughing up land that was used to grow hay for sale. Selling hay at 2-2.5 cents a pound will not pay for the fertiliser and machinery costs.

[bucket]

Grassfarmer

I know they are hurting but explain this to me.

I have been watching local guys buy into the cattle business for the last couple of years. They pay 11, 12 even 1400 for a bred heifer on borrowed money. These same guys last year I couldn't give hay away - too much work. Now they are offering 35 for standing hay. Not too bright these fellows. Cow prices have dropped to an affordable level where I am going to get in. The guys with those expensive heifers can't make there payments. And their idiotic banker who lent them the money for 1400, now won't lend them the money to average down. My point is to stick with a plan and the banker should too - these guys had the right idea seeding marginal land back to grass, they shouldn't be penalized for bad timing. The one thing I know is if they become farmers again its going to bugger up grain and the cycle repeats.

Furthur, if you look at the number of cows disappearing, I think the market for cattle is going to turn quicker than anyone expected.