April 2008-09 PRO Released

[charliep]

From the press release:

2008-09 Wheat PRO Drops On Improved Production Prospects
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its latest monthly Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2008-09 crop year. Milling wheat PROs are $18 to $25 per tonne lower than the March PRO for the new crop year, primarily due to improved international crop prospects. Milling durum values have decreased by $20 per tonne. Projections for feed barley Pool A returns remain unchanged from last month, while designated barley values have been reduced by $6 per tonne.

http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2008_20080424.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2008-09

Given a picture is worth a thousand words, I direct your eyes to the historical pricing graphs for both FPC relative to the PRO and movement in basis levels. Will note the relative strengthening of basis over the past (more in between month basis changes than has been seen in previous years).

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2008-09/0809bpccharts.pdf

[parsley]

I looked at the graphs.

I thought when the CWB said they were working flat out, they meant they were working hard.


BUT they've flatlined .... the entire marketing department died!


Parsley

[Fransisco]

I wonder why they only show the 08 basis charts? Is it maybe because they are the worst basis levels ever offered?

[charliep]

You should also look at the historical 2007/08 DPC graphs. Interesting that the DPC has collapsed down to the FPC levels (realzing there still may be some adjustements to the FPC basis). You may want to look at the SWS DPC chart. Ouch. Someone will have to spend some time explaining things to me given most if not SWS is sold in a north American market.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2007-08/0708dpccharts.pdf

[charliep]

The historical charts are all there for farmers to review. To their credit, the CWB does a good job in providing this decision making information.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

That picture is worth a thousand words!

Now the CWB will claim to be the heroes... as the CWRS basis becomes positive...

It (the CWRS Basis)should never have been negative $30 in the first place!

By putting artificial deadlines... actual delivery of contracted grain should be the valid basis calculation reference by choice (not the end of October)... the CWB has manipulated this system to steal millions of $$$'s from PPO contract holders.

[parsley]

Deceased: CWB Marketing Department
Created: CWB Manipulation Department

May farmers rest their peace.

[Fransisco]

Fair enough Charlie, with a little digging you can find the info.

But its not as user friendly as I would like it. It would be nice to be able to access the raw data in excel format as well as the ready made charts.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Where does the CWB graph Producer Direct Sales info on an ongoing basis?

[charliep]

My understanding is PDS prices are only available on a request basis. They are not published and not graphed.

A similar question could be asked about the domestic human consumption price used to price to domestic millers. This information is public (can find in newspapers) but access to this database is not available easily or the graphic representation of it.

There will be daily variation in the relationship between the daily price contract, the producer direct sale contract and the domestic human consumption but they should be relatively similar.

[charliep]

Should note that DHC prices may not be as available as indicated above. Can find domestic malt barley (available to domestic brewers for a 90 day pricing period) and durum but not wheat ex durum. Maybe someone else has a published source.

[GrainBeetle]

Fransisco:

Your comments prove you are a poor marketer. Yes I agree the basis levels were the worst ever, but you are only looking at one half of the equation.

When the hedge funds drive the futures markets up and beyond tradeable cash values, the basis obvious needs to widen out. Plus with $1.20/bu limit moves in the market it wasnt only the CWB that widen out their basis or pulled out of the market entirely, i.e. Cargill USA.

Back to my original point, even though the basis was at 30 under, you could still have locked in your 2008 wheat at 447/tonne.

Perhaps you will be more happy with a plus 25 basis and a 250 futures, and then go brag at the coffee shop about your great basis level.

[GrainBeetle]

Parsley:

those references to "deceased" are troubling, and rather scary.

[parsley]

Scarey?

And here I thought the marketing department had flatlined and died, but then I was just judging by performance.

What I didn't realize,until you referred to "scarey", is that deadbeats eat their own.

Full from dinner, are you Grainbeetle?

Parsley

[GrainBeetle]

Fransico:

As Charlie pointed out, the CWB does publish historical basis and CDN/US converted futures values.

However, I'm looking at how to market my flax, rye, peas, mustard, canola, chickpeas, lentils, soybeans and alfalfa seed, and would like to study each grain company's historical cash bids, but cant find them on line.

Can you provide me with these links, i've googled it, but cant seem to find their historic farmer bid data.

Thanks
GB