Pigs

[Hopperbin]

I am a shareholder in a feeder barn that is being emptied and contract terminated.
Heating the barns for winter is going to cost a fortune and if not heated the 6 year old barns will be worthless after the concrete heaves.
Anyone think there is any bright spots for pigs? She don't look good.

[TOM4CWB]

Hopperbin:

And folks think they pay too much for food now?

Just try to get folks to talk about the credit problems that Agriculture is facing, forget it...

We farmers have gold bricks lining our granaries!

I see where the Alberta Gov. just increased AFSC credit in the 2008 Budget:

"The Agriculture Financial Services Corporation loan limits will increase from $2 million to $5 million, and the overall borrowing limit for the Corporation has increased from $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. The increase in the overall borrowing limit means up to $200 million in additional capital will be available for lending to clients over the next three years."

AND someone thinks... that an increase of 5% of the AFSC loans outstanding... will keep our industry going... with banks retracting credit to Agriculture?

Pigs will fly... before this plan works!

40% increases in input costs... Capital for land... equipment...

We ain't seen nothin (on food shortages) YET!

[agstar77]

Consumers have become complacent, food somehow always appears on the shelves from somewhere. It will be a rude awakening when the shelves are empty. Like the song says ,You don't know what you got till it's gone.

[Burbert]

Costco has lots and lots of food on the shelves, shortages will not occur unless orchestrated by business. Increases in bread and beer prices are being foisted upon us by corrupt business. A good crop this year will eliminate the scary talk that the media fed us last week. In fact they've already moved on, back to floods, train wrecks and global warming. Gotta race to town to buy and hoard 80 lbs of rice, (don't even like the stuff) but I want my share!

[melvill]

I don't subscribe to Berbert's theory that "Increases in bread and beer prices are being foisted upon us by corrupt business." It's hard to understand why any business is acting in a corrupt manner by trying to increase product prices if it's input costs are increasing. Would farmers, who try to market their products at higher prices because their input costs have increased, be operating in a corrupt manner?

However, on the consumer side, there is increasing evidence that this run-up in prices along with the expectation that these price increases have only just begun, is resulting in hoarding. Of course, hoarding is increased consumption and can add to the real or perceived tight supply. Hoarding could result in further price increases as the market tries to arrive at an equilibrium price which matches available supply with consumption.

Anyone remember the perceived antifreeze shortage of the 70s or 80s - can't remember the exact date? A family member sold more antifreeze to people who were essentially hoarding it during that supposed shortage than at any other time in his business life.

[dalek]

A lot of hog barns were built depending on $3 corn and a 70 cent dollar. We might well see one again soon but both? Need to keep a lot of these barns empty before hogs will be profitable again, and keep them empty permanently.

[parsley]

And the business plan whas prepared by ........?


Will you write them a reference?

Parsley

[liberty]

Regarding mothballing a pig barn, I am not sure that it would need to be heated to prevent concrete heave. I had an old house that was not heated for three years before I demolished it. The concrete basement showed no signs of heaving at all. However, I did make sure to stick a sump pump in the weeping tile drain every spring to prevent water from filling it up.

I suspect as long as you kept the manure pits dry in the summertime, concrete heave would not be an issue, other than heaving caused by normal ground movement which is unavoidable in any event.

[Fransisco]

There are folks out there predicting that hogs will follow grain up to the next plateau it is just a question of when.

We could see things looking a lot different by the last qtr of '08.

[Jay-mo]

I totally agree Francisco, if anyone has followed the hog industry for more then a few years they will know that hog prices are very seldom flat. They seem to either be climbing up or falling off the chart.
The biggest issues this time around is the MCOOL where some producers have had contracts broken and have no market anymore.

[joedales]

20% of pork producers have stop this past year.....extremely tough year.

Canadian Swine Inventories are Falling

From Statistics Canada Report.

Hog inventories are falling and farmers are leaving the industry, in the wake of high feed costs and soft slaughter prices, according to new data from the April 2008 Hog Survey.

Data show that the hog industry in Canada is in a state of transition, as the feed costs and slaughter prices, which have been prevalent in the hog market for some time, have squeezed profit margins to the limit.

As of April 1, 2008, Canada had almost one-fifth fewer (-19.3%) hog farmers than in April 2007. Of those still in business, a number had closed their barns or reduced their breeding herd, or both.

Farmers had an estimated 13.0 million hogs on their farms on April 1, down 1.7 million, or 11.7%, from the same date in 2007. This was the largest year-over-year drop in three decades, and the fifth consecutive quarterly decline in total hog inventories.

The number of sows fell 4.6% during this 12-month period.

With rising feed costs, many hog producers are shifting mainly to farrowing operations from the more traditional farrow-finish operations. This has led producers to export their hogs, mostly weaners, at a strong pace, principally to the United States.

Farmers exported an estimated 2.9 million hogs during the first three months of 2008, a 25.9% increase over the same period a year earlier. At the same time, the domestic slaughter of hogs in Canada slipped 1.1% compared with the first three months of 2007.

On February 25, 2008, the Government of Canada announced a cull breeding swine program aimed at reducing the size of the breeding herd. Further reductions in the hog breeding herd are anticipated across the country once the program is implemented.

Here is the link to the report.

www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080424/d080424b.htm