1 Billion People... starvation... Ug99

[TOM4CWB]

Where is Canada in working on the Ug99 problem?

"May 02, 2008


Paul Penner
NAWG Environment and Renewable Resources Chairman

Pop quiz: who in history has probably saved more lives than anyone else? And what did he or she do for a living?

Answer: Dr. Norman Borlaug, a wheat breeder, who is credited with spurring the Green Revolution, saving perhaps a billion people from starvation.

To many people, wheat is something to sing about in patriotic songs and the main ingredient of bread. But, more than that, the crop many of us have devoted our lives to growing is a staple food source all over the world, made even more important by that Revolution, a period of dramatic increases in productivity that kept millions from starvation. An estimated 20 percent of all calories consumed in the world come from wheat.

The progress promoted by world wheat production is under threat today, however, by something most Americans don’t even know exists - a new and highly virulent race of a old wheat disease, a disease that has been under control since the days of the Green Revolution.

Ug99, named such because it was first discovered in Uganda in 1999, is a race of stem rust, a disease that infects the vascular tissues of wheat plants. It can cause 100 percent yield loss in infected plants. This new race is virulent on plant genes that have provided stable resistance for nearly five decades. A large proportion of world wheat is now highly vulnerable, including nearly all spring wheat varieties and 75 percent of winter wheat varieties planted in the U.S.

Though the disease had been contained to Africa, the world got confirmation earlier this year that it had spread to Iran, meaning that the wheat fields of that country, Iraq, Pakistan, India, Syria and Turkey - which account for 20 percent of world wheat production - will soon be threatened as it spreads further on wind or clothing.

It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to conjure up the havoc spread of Ug99 will cause in terms of famine, finances and political instability. The best, and perhaps only, defense against these outcomes is increased research aimed at locating and deploying new genes for resistance in new wheat varieties.

But while we are looking at the critical vulnerability and possible destruction of 3/4 of the world’s wheat supply in one of the most volatile regions on earth, funding is being cut for world wheat research projects.

In the past, the U.S. government has typically funded the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centers at around $25 million per year from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) budget. About $5 million of that funding typically went to CIMMYT, the international center responsible for wheat improvement. CIMMYT develops new wheat varieties with higher yields and improved disease resistance for the world and facilitates international exchange of germplasm among wheat breeders. CIMMYT is now leading the international battle against Ug99.

Despite frantic meetings by members of the wheat chain, like NAWG and the National Wheat Improvement Committee, and public appeals for action from people as laudable as Borlaug, who wrote on the issue in the April 26 edition of The New York Times, this critical funding is being cut in this current fiscal year. And, the outlook for next year’s funding is no better.

Bread, something most Americans take for granted and millions around the world rely on to survive until the next day, is being threatened for the lack of $25 million from a country with a $14 trillion economy.

Of all the uncontrollable “what if”s of farming, Ug99 is one threat that investment and ingenuity might be able to prevent, if the resources are there. Please call your Members of Congress and urge them to act on this issue for the sake of the American wheat producer and people all over the world.

- Penner is a wheat producer in Hillsboro, Kan."http://www.wheatworld.org/html/news.cfm?ID=1399


Again; Where is Canada in working on this problem? Is it only the US that is responsible for saving the world's hungry?

[bobn]

Is The World Running Out Of Food?

Winnipeg, Apr 30, 2008 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- RNI

Grain and oilseed futures at the ICE Canada futures market closed the week ended April 25th lower as weakness in the US markets spilled in to pressure Winnipeg prices down. Canola posted losses as the US soybean market fell. Sluggish export demand contributed to the decline. News that China is a matter of weeks away from harvesting their ****seed crop and would not be buying in the spot canola market contributed to the price slide. Underpinning the market was a weakening Canadian dollar and slow farmer selling. The arrival of moisture across much of the southern prairies also weighed on the market. Western barley prices drifted down on slow end user demand and talk that those end users are mainly covered into the summer.

Chicago futures were mixed with soybeans and wheat down and corn higher. Soybeans declined on the absence of Chinese soybean buying, the favourable outlook for the Brazilian soybean crop and fears that corn planting delays could lead to higher US soybean acres. Giving minor support was news that a farm strike in Argentina could cause buyers to shift to US soybeans. Corn futures rallied as rain delaying US corn planting suggests that corn acres may actually be lower than expected. Steady export demand also gave support. All 3 US wheat futures markets moved lower as they continued their 6 week decline. The favourable outlook for the US winter wheat crop, moisture in spring wheat growing areas ahead of planting, slow exports and talk of bumper yields in the EU and China pressured the wheat market lower.

While the world started an attack on the high price of food, the International Grains Council brought out its largely ignored latest supply-demand report which showed that global wheat ending stocks will jump by over 12% in 2008-09 to 128 mln tonnes as wheat production hits a new record high and consumption increases.

This ending stocks increase has accounted for world wheat prices dropping in the past 6 weeks and wheat price forecasts , while not bearish, predicting lower values. The Canadian Wheat Board recognized this fact in their latest price outlooks.

However, the question of whether the world is running out of food is now front and centre and I have never seen so many half truths and outright untruths in the discussion.

The first truth distortion comes with the argument that the high price of food reflects the use of grains and oilseeds for biofuels. However, when you look at the amount being used for biofuels you see that it is small with 95% of grains and oilseeds going for food.

Rice prices have swelled to record high levels this year, yet not one kernel of rice is used for biofuels.

The initial root of the problem is that the world got used to cheap food after the Second World War because of the misguided programs of the Europeans and the US which subsidized food production. This led to mountains of grains building up and depressing world prices below the cost of production. Those government programs reached their highest degree of lunacy with the 1985 US farm bill.

Farmers can well remember the years (only 2-3 years ago) when they were producing at a loss because farm subsidies were boosting grain supplies and lowering prices. Those farm subsidy programs are slowly being dismantled and that has lowered world ending stocks and caused prices to rise.

At the same time the development of the middle class in China and India has created an unprecedented increase in demand. This has absorbed oversupply and lifted prices.

In addition the rising demand has caused an increase in input costs. Countries are attempting to increase their own production by boosting yields using increased inputs.

Potassium has gone from about $500/tonnes last fall to almost $1,300/tonne. Demand from China and India has accounted for much of the increase. Crude oil values are at record high levels.

Agriculture is more dependent on energy than any other industry in the world and those inputs have to be reflected in the prices a farmer receives or he will simply not grow it.

Another simplistic explanation favoured by many people for the record high food price is that global population increases inevitably outstrip our ability to produce food. The theory then says that famine will drive human population down. This theory was developed 200 years ago by the Englishman, Thomas Malthus.

We have so far avoided this prediction by increasing the yields of grains and oilseeds. In the past 40 years corn yields have doubled to about 150 bu/acres and biotechnology is expected to double corn yields again in less than 40 years.

On top of that, there is still more area than can be utilized for food production with most estimates saying it can easily be increased by another 10%.

Another factor that the Malthusian theory did not take into account is that the birth rate falls as nations become more developed and that population increases actually are not exponential.

In fact the problem for the developed countries in the Northern Hemisphere is that declining birth rates have caused and will cause labour shortages and actually allow us to have more food to provide to the rest of the world.

The panicked predictions of major world hunger as a result of lower grain supplies is simply not true. The world has seen lower ending stocks than we are currently experiencing and supplies are expected to continue increase in the future.

However, to get the food that world wants, the world will have to pay farmers fair prices and avoid the subsidizing policies of the past that have driven prices down. Farm organisations will have to launch a strong education program to explain to consumers that higher prices are fair. They must dispel the pessimism in the populace and the misguided government policies that inevitably led to the current situation.

I saw Bob Friesen of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture dealing with this topic on the CBC in the past week and he made a strong case for Ag prices having to be higher. Farmers will have to be prepared for more challenges of these high prices and their organizations will need intelligent and spirited defence of the prices.

It was just two years ago that prices for wheat and canola were at record low levels and there were very few voices calling for higher prices, other than farmers. High prices now are needed by farmers to simply help them dig out of the past few years when they have been forced to use their farm equity to feed the world below the cost of production.

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/8/8/108162088.html

[charliep]

Is the current situation about the amount of grain in the world/shortages or ability to pay. In times of tighter supplies, the market will ration what is available to those who can afford to pay the higher prices. Poorest of the world are the most vulnerable. What I hear a lot of is aid agencies having to cut back on purchases for those that need food aid as they try to stretch limited budgets. Hearing a lot about hoarding and government policies to restrict exports which again limits supplies/pushes prices higher.

The interesting thing at home in North America will be livestock numbers. Less livestock equals less grain consumed. Perhaps North American consumers will have the choice of less meat consumption or ethanol for their cars.

Will be interesting times ahead with the caveat that these prices will stimulate world production.