Both 2007/08 and 2008/09 PRO Released Today

[charliep]

CWB quote: DATE: May 22, 2008
Wheat, Durum Values Fall in 2007-08 PRO
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its May 2008 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2007-08 crop year. Milling wheat values are down $10 to $22 per tonne from the last PRO published in March, while milling durum has dropped $29 per tonne. Designated barley and feed barley values are unchanged from the last PRO. Positive new-crop outlooks in most of the world's major production regions, weak demand as customers pull down inventory levels, a strong Canadian dollar and record-high ocean freight rates are among factors pressuring returns.

Ouch. Someone will have to help me understand what is happening with this kind of loss on old crop. Always have trouble understanding why everyone whines and complains about increased input costs and yet takes this kind of loss to the bottom line without a whimper. Where did your money go? Will the CWB take wheat on the "C" series? Why doesn't the CWB do things like multiple pooling periods?

[charliep]

CWB quote: 2008-09 crop year
DATE: May 22, 2008
Weaker Markets Pull Down 2008-09 Wheat and Durum PROs
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its May 2008 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2008-09 crop year. Wheat values are down $23 per tonne from last month's PRO, while milling durum has dropped $39 per tonne. Designated barley and feed barley values are unchanged from the April PRO.

[charliep]

I find interesting that new crop spring wheat with 5 % priced went down by $23/tonne and old crop declined by $15/tonne with likely 75 % plus of the pool priced. In the case of old crop, would be interesting to know the percentage of the 2007/08 crop priced and the difference in futures prices used in the unpriced grain between April and May. Something doesn't add up.

Being the guy I am, had to compare the April 14 adjusted initial payement (recommendation went in after the February PRO - highest PRO for the 2007/08) to the May PRO. Adjusted 1CWRS 12.5 initial payment for 2007/08 - $325 versus May PRO - $370. Other wheat ex durum have a similar spread initial and PRO. Adjusted 1CWAD 12.5 initial payment of $480 versus a May PRO of $497.

So there is a $17/tonne spread on durum between the current initial and the PRO. Would be interesting if the durum PRO dropped further and the tax payer was asked to ante up for a deficit. That would never happen?

[charliep]

I should have remembered the $25/tonne drop in the April 2008 PRO for a combined decline in the wheat 2008/09 PRO of $48/tonne (most) versus a $15/tonne decline in the 2007/08 PRO (no April 2007/08 PRO released). Makes things a little but still a major drop in the 2007/08 pooling year when most old crop sales should have been made already.

[Ron]

Big surprise, the CWB does a shitty job marketing my grain. More concerned with protecting their customers from high prices.
With this rain it is tempting to switch everything from wheat to barley.
Agricore has 5.25 for nov FEED barley, beats the hell out of the CWB.
SCREW THE CWB

[Burbert]

AGRICORE, AGRICORE, AGRICORE, last I checked it DOESN'T EXIST, so don't trust the price they quote for feed barley. Remember their last price discovery attempt, just before they rolled over, quoting big barley prices, but not buying any at that price, last year, trying to make friends with the Market Choice group, before going belly up and becoming Viterra, with the same tired old staff running the show, what a joke!

[furrowtickler]

No burbot - the cwb is a joke. You watch there will be no more wheat pmy's comming, imo.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

How can the 08-09 basis be commercial in any way... in one day going from $7.50 to over $19 under the futures...

The CWB is taking the xtra basis both on the way up (last fall)... and on the way back down again!

How can they get away with this kind of manipulation?

[charliep]

Thanks for highlighting CWRS basis. SWS got hammered as well but CPS/CWRW got left alone.

Durum is interesting as well. PRO came down $39 and the FPC dropped $25. Discount to the PRO is now $68 versus $82 on Tuesday.

[bucket]

The cwb has been getting over 20 for durum since last October and they can't average the crop price over 13.50. I am no math genius but a simple calculator tells me to average to where we are today - somebody somewhere didn't pay for a lot of durum. 1 bushel at 20 and 1 bushel at 0 still gives an average of 10. To average to 13 when durum hit 28 doesn't compute.

Hey vader where are all those high priced sales you were bragging about a few threads ago. Its not computing now with a lower pro.

INCOMPETENT.

[Hopperbin]

With the freight difference that makes new crop 2 row malt worth more per bushel than the CWSWS wheat. Must be our CWB marketing expertise at work. Don't they make noodles out of that wheat? Asia also makes noodles out of rice. Asians are lucky to get rice or rice noodles in the stores. We have oodles of CWSWS to make them noodles. But we are supposed to believe than the Chinese shipping companies charge too much freight.

[SASKFARMER3]

I almost chucked up a lung after reading how our wonderful CWB screwed up again.
Yes I am no math genius either but Durum 1/2 at over 20 and half at 5 = 12.5.
So to the guy in the Airport in Mexico where the Heck is the Premium?
WE farmers again got a royal Scr--ing.
HOW DOES IT FEEL.
Back to Seeding, VADER 10 to go out of 60.

[checking]

It's becoming evident who the real "marketing geniuses" are? The CWB asking prices at Eastern ports seem only relevant to ensure that no farmer buybacks (except the organics and free tickets to export "seed" to the USA are possible). All the rest of the CWB details are to confuse and hide the rest of the rotten system.

[Fransisco]

And when it comes to durum lets all remember that it is the one and only crop in which the board has a sizable market share. If they could extract a premium on anything it should be durum, especially when the world is short.

I seem to remember Fitzhenry bragging about how they had the buyers over a barrel. Looks like it was the other way around. Again.