Unbelievable!

[cottonpicken]

Crudes up over 8 bucks and corns breaking out.

Didnt think both could happen in the same day.

Something must happening behind the scenes.

Anyone still want to argue inflation?

[charliep]

I won't be so fast on the no connection corn/biofuels and the energy markets. The corn frenzy (and for that matter soybeans) has been linked to the energy markets for a long time. So energy moving higher is supporting corn as are the implications of late seeding/reduced acres and growing concerns about vulnerability to yields.

You and I look at market differently but I have to ask how much weather premium is being built into the US crop markets (or what if conditions are favorable/yields high) and the impact on the demand side (livestock still eats a vast amount of corn). I also note comments about the overall economy and the problems ahead. Not necessarily all positive for commodities.

Your answer will be to stay long. My answer will be to watch for pricing hedging opportunities. We hopefully are both looking for opportunities to profit/replacement strategies for contracts signed early on.

[agstar77]

There is a reason why we can expect 1800 for Phosphate . These players feel commodity market still has an upside. As for oil there is rumblings of an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran.

[Burbert]

George B. and his pals are manipulating oil, using whatever means necessary to keep the price high. War if required, send in the poor kids to fight, sos oil can be pushed higher. Thankfully B.'s days are number, maybe the world will return to normal again, once the crazies are no longer running the W house!!

[cottonpicken]

Yes and no Charlie.
Somethings long and somethings short.

Charlie,what is your reasoning for an across the board commoditie blow up?

Burbert,high oil prices are not in us foriegn policy interests.(at least when denominated in us dollars)

Agstar,you might be right about the war.Although something tells me its pakistan not iran.Iraniains are persians not muslims,and pakistan is one of those rare 100 million person countries-which is all muslim/nuclear/unstable. Not many fit that criteria.We'll see.

[charliep]

You know I am a fundamental analyst and will give the answer from that perspective.

The reason for higher grain prices is many years of low grain prices (in spite of tightening supplies/carryovers) and a not necessary new but major increase in consumption combined with increasing consumption in the new middle in the developing world/increasing population.

Perhaps we both see the same glass but one sees half empty/one half full. You want people to be specutlators. I want people to use information to manage risk (which by the way is acessing both opportunity and danger) to make better decisions. I have never questioned anyone for staying long. I just encourage looking at prices and making decisions based on a farms business needs.

[charliep]

The consumption increase is ethanol.