Looks like it's time to shut the doors on the canola bins, again!

[boarderbloke]

took some time to check canola crush margins this morning only to find the crushers have Increased their margins by over a $1.oo/BUS from a month ago. that's an extra $1.oo/BUS that YOU risked to grow, thet are now making double the crush margin, that they themselves claim, is necessary to make a profit. with basis up, and crush margins up, and as long as it continues to rain through out the midwest, i won't be pricing anymore of my remaining canola! next year is looking just fine!

[parsley]

Callum Downs Commodity News Grain Report from Australia has an interesting comment:


"Global canola production is expected to be up sharply this year, and will probably be a record, so even though
oilseeds supplies might be tight, canola itself might not be as tight. (The positive on this though, is that exports from Canada are likely to fall, allowing increased production from the Ukraine and Australia to find a home)."


Parsley

[agstar77]

Soybean futures up 70 cents for June July.

[charliep]

Will leave the discussion to others. People here spend as much time following markets as I do and can make their own decisions based on business needs.

A couple of ideas:

1) Acknowledge the price you are being offered without all the noise of US weather, basis levels and crush margins. Without going into the specifics of your area, likely to be about $15/bu or $660/tonne. Is the price a good one or a bad one (i.e. profit wise and relative to history)? If you still want to turn the price down, write down in your diary/calendar or where ever you write down decisions and share with your manage team (i.e. spouse). You and your partner can come back to the decision later to evaluate. I like Farmsense article on durum FPC prices - sometimes a good price is a good price and you have to hold your nose pulling the trigger.

2) Have a plan: Maybe a trailing stop? Maybe a target basis? Maybe a target price? Maybe a deadline (decision to sell made no later than August 15?

3) Have the discipline to act. Nothing more frustrating to me than talking to someone whose price target always moves to 50 cent/bu above the current cash price and then sells for $5/bu below the high because they boxed themselves into a corner on cash flow/bin space.

[charliep]

4) Know the tools in tool box. Know options (both puts and calls) are likely to be expensive but may provide good protection in what will be a volatile market this summer. May also have to look at innovative ideas to pay for options like writing them (i.e. selling them) but you have to understand the risks/watch what you are doing.

[cottonpicken]

I'll go out on a limb and say canola looks cheap anyway you cut it.
And if i see that its cheap a few spec funds with 100 billion dollars in their war chests will see it to.

[charliep]

Realize there is money looking for homes but also note (and agree on) your concerns about the general economy. A collapse in the US economy/some other major event that will create a cash vortex that sucks money in from all places including commodities. As Kenny Rogers used to sing "Know When to Hold Em, Know When to Fold Em".

Would also encourage all to know when you have your speculator hat on and when it is your business hat. Some can wear both hats but others, it is a recipe for disaster if you are clear on objectives.

[charliep]

The last line should be "not clear on objectives". Again, risk assessment which is both opportunity and bearing consequences of negative events.

[cottonpicken]

My arguement would be the collapse is already occuring.The money is flowing into tangibles BECAUSE the solution to the problem is to expanded the money supply.(a weak solution,but the only option)

This scenario has happened in the past but the difference this time is the whole world is doing it.


How much do the dollars in your bank account buy now,a month ago,ayear ago,ten years ago?

[cottonpicken]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=767025949

Chaotic thinking at its finest.
Nice fight around 11 minute mark.
Always think of the humpty dumpty tail when i'm thinking about the us economy.

[cottonpicken]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arH_jb_T7FpI&refer=home

Corn prices have hit the fan.

[boarderbloke]

cp, thanks for the bloomberg link, a good read. say, did anyone get back to you(if i remember right it was you) about traditional relationships, price wise, between "corn vs. barley", and "corn vs. wheat"? if so was the relationship between them more than just energy value?