Burnett's view

[bucket]

World record wheat production burnett predicts. Funny for myself and what I have read its not even a remote possibility. However he also predicts prices to remain high. I think he is illierate because obviously he didn't read the last pro.

I have come to the conclusion these guys are talking the markets down to protect their job and their incompetence.

[dave4441]

Yeah, he could not possibly have any tools/experience behind him. I am guessing he has very little market understanding or knowledge. I am guessing he feels he can push down the entire global grain markets with a few comments and protect his position within the CWB.

[charliep]

Just curious if either one of you have looked at recent USDA and International Grains Council reports. I also have the privilege of having access to Informa Economics information. All would agree with Bruce Burnett forecast.

Know Bruce well and have a great deal of respect for his knowledge/work. Have been in the same shoes when I did market analysis for United Grain Growers and Alberta Agriculture when we publisheded news letters. Realizing your name is attached to the forecasts, you do your best at a point in time realizing information will change as the crop progresses. A person is simply a providers of information for decision makers. If the deecision maker disagrees, they can use their own information. As cottonpicken has suggested, the markets are trading technicals now far more than fundamentals anyway. TOM4CWB has highlight the interesting consequences of having corn futures higher that wheat (CBT at least).

[dave4441]

Sorry, I was being sarcastic. Seems people only want to hear what sounds bullish on this site, bury their heads on any bearish news. Markets are a balance of bearish and bullish factors. Have to look at them all. I have met Bruce and believe that he would not intentionally mislead anyone, as he knows that the market will move in the direction it decides to go, irrespective of anyone's opinion. If the CWB was not saying anything we would say they are hiding the facts. I am not a CWB supporter necessasarily, but a # of their staff are pretty sharp and you have to give credit where it is due.

[mcfarms]

Yes I was going to come on this morning and say I have personally spent time with him an a couple occasions and despite the fact I've got a few issues going on right now with the board in general If he's says in his view it is, I tend to believe him.

[bucket]

The difference between my view, burnett's view, analyst's view or a trader's view is quite simple.

I have actually looked at crops in my part of the world. I also put them in the cold ground and watched them get one of the shittiest starts in over 10 years. My experience tells me that Australia with 3 years of drought is unlikely to grow a bumper crop without timely rains which to date hasn't happened. The US is having its issues and the market is responding.

My problem with the experts like burnett is he will say prices should remain strong but the organization he works for lowers our return.

[charliep]

Here is the article in question (MY COMMENTS).

Rains help boost 2008 crop estimates, cold spring a concern

Winnipeg – The CWB today released its preliminary crop forecasts, projecting a western Canadian wheat and durum crop of 21.2 million tonnes in the 2008 crop year, up from last year’s 18.4 million tonnes but below the five-year average of 22.1 million tonnes.

“Recent rains have improved conditions across much of the Prairies,” said Bruce Burnett, CWB director of weather and market analysis, at the annual CWB grain industry briefing today. “However, soil moisture levels are still low in many western growing areas due to the persistent dry conditions over the previous two to three years.” (BRUCE NOTES THE CONTINUED PRODUCTION/YIELD - IT IS THERE)

A cool spring, with temperatures three to five degrees below normal, has also caused concern over crop development, elevating the importance of receiving normal or above-normal heat this summer. Wheat, durum and barley crops are currently one to two weeks behind normal due to the cold weather. “A continuation of cool weather could lead to delayed development and increased risk of frost damage this fall,” Burnett said. (THERE IS QUALITY RISK THIS FALL).

Durum production is expected to increase to 4.8 million tonnes from 3.7 million tonnes in 2007, while barley production is predicted to decrease to 9.9 million tonnes from 10.3 million tonnes last year.

For the world grain outlook, production problems in the American cornbelt are expected to result in a significant decline in corn production this year. Above-average yields are being reported from the U.S. hard winter wheat harvest, currently underway in Oklahoma and Texas. Globally, a record world wheat crop of 663 million tonnes is predicted. (USDA NUMBER RELEASED ON JUNE 10)

“The global price structure for wheat is expected to remain strong in the face of record production, given the high demand from increasing consumption and the record low stocks related to previous years’ production problems around the world,” Burnett said.

Weather in Europe has improved over last year, with record wheat production expected, while dryness is causing problems for North African durum prospects. Hot, dry weather has also been a concern for production prospects in the Middle East and Turkey. (MALEEFARMER IS ON THE GROUND IN AUSTRALIA AND CAN PROVIDE AN UPDATE WHERE THERE CROP IS AT).

[vvalk]

It doesn't really matter what his experience or talents are. He works for the CWB and the only job of the CWB is to sell our grain at the highest price. To issue press releases saying we will have a big crop and that world production will be a record counters that. If your trying to sell something, is it reasonable to tell your customer that you and your competition have lots to sell them. I can't figure it out. Someone enlighten me.