A long ways from global warming
Will note that barley is already a dual market. 80 % plus of the barley produced is open market/sold to the domestic feed industry.
Barley acres (something the livestock industry has to note) has been declining because barley (both feed and malt) are less profitable than other cropping alternatives (even today). To put the numbers into perspective, I note this years 9.9 MMT barley crop forecast from the CWB. Put some weather problems into the summer and Alberta will again be an importer of US corn (assuming $7/bu stays and a $1/bu basis) puts track Alberta corn/barley at $320/tonne.
As a livestock producer, would you favor having to purchase all your barley from a single desk. Your neighbors will deliver to the CWB, get an initial payment (or perhaps a CWB pricing that has no relationship to the price you pay as a feeder). As a buyer of an input feed, you are forced to buy from them at whatever price they choose to charge (likely based off corn). You have no recourse if you feel you are being treated unfairly other than the courts. Would the livestock industry be prepared to do this? What is the cost of doing this to both buyer and seller? Would this increase or decrease barley acres?
To answer your questions, Alberta government sees improved returns to farmers in an open market for barley based on better price signals/increased competition from the export market and from there an improved reason to grow barley/invest to improve productivity. Yes barley prices would go up. From the CWB survey, farmers in Alberta (and SK/MB) agree with this view of the world.
Will note that barley is already a dual market. 80 % plus of the barley produced is open market/sold to the domestic feed industry.
Barley acres (something the livestock industry has to note) has been declining because barley (both feed and malt) are less profitable than other cropping alternatives (even today). To put the numbers into perspective, I note this years 9.9 MMT barley crop forecast from the CWB. Put some weather problems into the summer and Alberta will again be an importer of US corn (assuming $7/bu stays and a $1/bu basis) puts track Alberta corn/barley at $320/tonne.
As a livestock producer, would you favor having to purchase all your barley from a single desk. Your neighbors will deliver to the CWB, get an initial payment (or perhaps a CWB pricing that has no relationship to the price you pay as a feeder). As a buyer of an input feed, you are forced to buy from them at whatever price they choose to charge (likely based off corn). You have no recourse if you feel you are being treated unfairly other than the courts. Would the livestock industry be prepared to do this? What is the cost of doing this to both buyer and seller? Would this increase or decrease barley acres?
To answer your questions, Alberta government sees improved returns to farmers in an open market for barley based on better price signals/increased competition from the export market and from there an improved reason to grow barley/invest to improve productivity. Yes barley prices would go up. From the CWB survey, farmers in Alberta (and SK/MB) agree with this view of the world.
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