Global Warming

[perfecho]

2 or 3 threads going here, but hey, kinda like most discussions.
Actually, Tom, back in the BSE crisis, I had posted that 1/2 the herds should be destroyed, (older cows), hormones banned and to make up the difference, feeders could be fed on the family farms. (Or a few neighbors together)
In hindsight, this would have made a very viable market place, a distinct branding of Canadian cattle and opened the doors to many countries. (Anyone read Chris Weder's last article in Grain News?)
But hey, industry leaders said the system would be distorted.
I find it interesting that the pork is rectifying their situation by culling animals, and someday if I had the time I would like to research the ownership of hogs and would bet more hog ownership is corporate than family farms. Maybe someone has this info and could share it. (Wouldn't be the first time I lost a bet.)
As for the fusarium issue, the reason I recall some of this, is that I was holding barley, and it was on its way up nicely, when an announcement came through. Of course it didn't say because of lowering standards the feed lot alley had cheaper feedstock, however some connected the dots and came up with a different conclusion than the province had announced. (Just like the latest announcement, some believe it as announced...some have connected different dots)
When some time opens up, I will try to research some articles, but life is a little too busy now.

[TOM4CWB]

Grassfarmer,

You said:

"It appears 1974 was a real interesting year with the Cdn dollar at $1.04 US, feed barley at close to $9 yet the price of cattle was around $125-130. Cattle prices certainly slumped into 1975 for a couple of years but were never below $120 adjusted for inflation - how do you explain that?

THE ANSWER about a massive market shift was: BSE... ( the reason for the perfecho perspective ) it has made our market unstable and broken to all previous market experience.

We on balance have 2 million too many cows in North America... and the over Capacity needs to come out of CDN Inventories... for a primarily domestic market to balance domestic consumption ( as perfecho has carefully pointed out).

I do recall the idea of a mass cull in 2003... I brought up the English trench method for a cull, not because it had been used to cull BSE animals... but because then the packers would not make any profit... which seems to be one of your objectives Grassfarmer!

ON THE CWB

"You say I am addicted to the CWB implying that I have a vested interest in keeping grain prices low - I don't as I've said the price of grain affects me very little as I don't use much and as shown above higher grain prices are not the driving factor of low cattle prices."

So are you telling me you market finished grass beef... direct to the domestic consumer in Canada?

If you sell feeders of calves... THEN your prices have/are been created in large part by the cost of feed... which the CWB is in large part responsible for regulating as pointed out above...(CWB is Responsible for maintaining inventories through refusal to issue export licenses for feed wheat & barley).

All of these issues are directly related... as all AG markets are inter-related whether you understand the relationships or not! The cost of Chicken, Turkey, Pork, Beef, are all related... and each have particular market niches in our CDN domestic market place!

Perfecho,

Good to see you understood... and I could be understood in some manner!

Hope it does not freeze in Alberta tonight AGAIN... froze in Milk River this morning... and close in Red Deer area tomorrow in some forecasts!

The GLOBAL WARMING perspective on the CWB is really quite simple...

Take some facts,

Leave out many important perspectives,

Make a theory that supports your 'view' of how the world works;

Add 'BULL' as the CWB is so proud of...

and presto...

GLOBAL WARMING or the CWB SINGLE DESK ...
take your pick... both use similar methods to influence society!

FEAR,

INTIMIDATION,

SELECTIVE STATISTICAL ANALISIS!

Government Regulation to enforce compliance.

[grassfarmer]

Sorry TOM I can't be bothered deciphering all that mumbo jumbo. Did you answer the question as to why cattle prices remained high in 1974? No! Did you answer the original question about why the removal of the CWB has no place in the new livestock and meat strategy unless the Government is admitting that removal will in fact lower prices not raise them. NO! Too bad your prejudices on the CWB issue cloud your ability to understand the question.
And yes, by the way we do market our own grass-fed beef direct to domestic customers. You are too late to get any this year though as we are sold out already.

[charliep]

Just a note to highlight your counterdictions in your own arguements. You have never commented on the impact of the CWB on barley competitiveness/market signals. Is direct access to the US (in competition with domestic packers a good thing or a bad thing) for the Alberta cattle industry? Would you want to jump through the same hoops an organic grain farmer does to direct market your beef to consumers?

My world is one of numbers/graphs. I encourage you to look at the CWB historical Charts (graphs 14 to 17).

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2007-08/0708fpcbpccharts.pdf

Will note the total payments on the "A" series feed barley ($280.28/tonne) is only slightly less than the 2 row malt barley PRO ($285).

Will note the process to come to get to the $228/tonne total payment in Alberta (knocked off $52/tonne of CWB deductions).

Initial payment announcement Aug. 1 - $55/tonne

1 st adjustment payment Oct 16 - $23.50/tonne (new payment about $79)

2 nd adjustment Nov. 22 - $100/tonne (new payment - $179/tonne.

Final payment (6 months earlier than all other CWB finals) - $50/tonne (total $229/tonne). I will note lots is not known about this price including volume (how much sold under open scenario) and how interest earning on outstanding debt is handled.

The average Alberta Grain Commission price for feed barley in the Lethbridge region during the period August 1 to June 16 was $192/tonne. My math tells me a $37/benefit loss to the grain industry and a benefit to the livestock one from the single desk.

This kind of cost has been built into our feedgrain system for years now (and particularly over the last 6 years when the livestock industry has had to import corn) and resulted in lower barley acreage. Do you think the livestock can on a continuous and ongoing basis survive on a corn import basis?

[charliep]

Mistake above. The $192 was a Red Deer price. Lethbridge was $203/tonne.

[charliep]

Should also note that one of the reasons that barley prices stayed down (keeping in mind some of the fusarium issues raised) is the Alberta livestock industries ability to import US corn - if the price of barley got too high, the feedlots in southern Alberta import corn. The livestock industry also has the ability to sell cattle and hogs south (realizing there are issues there including mcool on the way). All the grain wants is the same rights the livestock industry has.

[parsley]

I was reading with my glass eye, grass, sorry.

Governments cannot pander to both livestock farmers and grain farmers at the same time. Isn't that what this thread is really all about?

If grain is cheap....grain farmers suffer and cattlemen laugh all the way to the bank.

If grain is high, grain farmers laugh all the way to the bank, and cowmen suffer.


Can't have it both ways.

Governments...every one of them...know this, but in the past, grain farmers have supplied cheap cheap grain, until they are on the verge of not growing feed grain.

Either the price goes up for grain farmers , or the cows learn to eat recycled plastic/ or foreign grain.

Governments cannot service both industries. And that is why the CWB, and their legislated power, must be trashed... to even the playing field.

Parsley

[charliep]

May as well add onto my tirade on market signals.

About 1 MMT of feed barley was exported in the first six months of the pooling year. The exports were a combination of feed barley sold during the open market period (likely the vast majority) and feed barley contracted during the fall on the first series CWB feed barley guaranteed delivery (contracted late Sept/early Oct - delivery Nov). What ever the volume of the GDC makes up the amount sold at $280/tonne port. Implication - delivery opportunities were restricted.

Will note that the PRO for feed barley over the Sept, Oct and Nov. PRO forecasts was $254/tonne port. The PRO only started to rise in Dec and finally ended $26/tonne higher in the finals. I note the disparity in prices between the time decisions were made and actual results were reported.

About 1.5 MMT of malt barley was delvered/sold over the same period. The PRO over this whole time period has been about $280/tonne port in the case of two row and around $260/tonne in the case of 6 row. This compares to $280/tonne total payments "A" series barley. Implication - For the second year in a row, feed barley payments could be above malt barley ones.

US corn - Any feedlot in southern Alberta who could read an Canadian barley S&D likely booked corn last fall at close to $4/bu. Add on $1/bu basis and convert to tonnes creates hedged feed supplies for most of this last winter at $200/tonne (track Alberta). Domestic feed barley consumption Aug 1 to Mar. 31 was about 5.3 MMT, down 1 MMT from normal.

To highlight what Parsley said, the objective is to have open and visible prices for both livestock and grain farmers. Grain farmers get the sharp end of the stick today. Longer term the implications is barley is a less profitable crop relative to other alternatives mainly because of the marketing system and acres decline in response.

[grassfarmer]

BINGO Parsley! even with your glass eye you seem to be able to read what the others miss.

"Governments cannot pander to both livestock farmers and grain farmers at the same time. If grain is cheap....grain farmers suffer and cattlemen laugh all the way to the bank.
If grain is high, grain farmers laugh all the way to the bank, and cowmen suffer. Can't have it both ways."

Well apparently at the moment we are being told that we can have it both ways. Eliminating the CWB will increase grain prices for farmers and apparently it will also lead to a healthier livestock industry presumably because grain prices will fall.
So before you succeed in getting the CWB trashed you maybe need to be sure which side is being lied to.

[TOM4CWB]

Grassfarmer,

I don't get it!

If you use NO Feed grains... and have a domestic grass fed market... why are you a CWB booster... and telling me I am a fool for needing the same marketing opportunity as you already have? ( NO export license or domestic restriction in marketing your produce.)

Just a tad hypocritical... to force my family into a corner you don't encounter!

Glad your cattle are doing well for you, and that you have a system that works for you Grassfarmer!

How about letting grain farmers have the same marketing freedoms you say make you profitable?

[parsley]

Grass,

There isn't a Government that won't lie to its' people IF there is a tax prize or a votes-prize at the end of the lie.

The thing is this grass...From Day One, the intent of the original CWB Act in 1947 came into question by the Premier of Manitoba, Stuart Garson. He pointed it out several times in his correspondence...that if the CWB went into place, the livestock feed needs would be met , but at the expense of grain farmers.

At that time, the Government wanted cheap grain so that Eastern livestock men...chicken, turkey, pork and sheep and beef, IN EASTERN CANADA would be fed and handy to slaughter right close to Toronto and Ottawa etc.

So, from Day #1, the intent was to have cheap feed available for livestock , after the war.


Grain farmers need to distance themselves from Government legislation.

Look at the Argentine farmers.

There isn't a political party in Canada that wouldn't TAX grain exports OR meat IF they thought they could get away with it.

The CWB is merely an instrument of the Government. We cannot afford to keep the CWB in place. They are bad financial news for DA feed growers.

Parsley

[TOM4CWB]

Parsley,

"We cannot afford to keep the CWB in place."

If we don't care enough to do anything about the CWB... and folks like 'Grassfarmer' are amused by the CWB... why dismantle a perfectly good winter entertainment facility!?

We wouldn't want to get 'brain freeze' ... we must keep that 'hot blood' flowing... what better way than letting us 'amuse' ourselves... and get cheap food to boot!?