Global Warming

[silverback]

I just want to congratulate Al Gore and Cotten for their work in reversing global warming. Who would have thought it could have worked so fast.

Forecast for Airdrie/Olds tonight - low of Zero!

I could almost swear it is June 13.

[grassfarmer]

Yawn...And who ever suggested that global warming meant only increasing temperatures? The predictions are all for average temperatures increasing over time but wild fluctuations in weather patterns and temperatures. Exactly what we are seeing around the world.

[silverback]

Please share with us, oh wise cow farmer, when the last time there has been frost in the middle of June?

I suppose you are also quite happy that the government has stepped in to slap the beef industry around and lay down the ground rules. Maybe if you stay in the business long enough they will implement a mandatory marketing board for beef. Life wouldn't be any better for you then eh?.

[charliep]

Will note there is an interesting discussion about Alberta's livestock and meat strategy in the Beef Production.

Just curious what you would think in crop and crop products replaced livestock and meat in the strategy focus?

I also have trouble celebrating the business problems of a customer. Every cow that disappears (and they are doing so) represents 1 tonne of feed grain demand. Every sow that disappears represents about 9 tonnes of feedgrain demand (1/3 tonne feed/finishing pig times 24 pigs/sow plus a tonne of feed for the sow).

Off topic.

[charliep]

grassfarmer

Have you seen a number about how many acres of cultivated land are used to feed a cow calf pair and background a feeder? Realizing that cow (and for that matter grassers) are efficient at utlilizing land that isn't good for anything else, a smaller cow herd will mean more land converted to crops/higher production. Likely not significant in a world of 2 trillion tonnes of wheat, rice and feed grain production but will impact things in western Canada.

[grassfarmer]

Off topic indeed, Charlie (and Silverback)can't beat changing the subject when you are challenged for spouting nonsense. Please re-read the reply I made to Silvertops post.

When was the last time there was frost in the middle of June? well in the mild part of Scotland I grew up in we had 6 inches of snow and two days of hard frost in June 1975, we had 2 feet of snow in late April 1982 following a winter where snow had been on the ground all winter(previously unheard of there)
Through the late 1990s and early 2000s they have had winters with zero snow there and virtually no snow there.

Not clear what you mean here Charlie "Just curious what you would think in crop and crop products replaced livestock and meat in the strategy focus?" or "I also have trouble celebrating the business problems of a customer....."

[charliep]

Neither focused at you. Will note in going through the livestock strategy, a similar approach could be taken with the crops industry. On the comment on celebration, I note some grain farmers somewhat enjoying the current state of the livestock (getting their just rewards). Most businesses what their customers to be successfull/profitable. With 75 % of barley fed domestically and 15 % of wheat, the livestock industry is an important customer.

Will also the Livestock and Meat strategy does tie into the crops sector. Under section 7, there are initiatives for: 7.3 - KVD phase out, 7.4 Plant novel trait, 7.5 Feed grain center of excellence and 7.6 Market Choice.

Apologize - should have started another thread.

[grassfarmer]

Re the livestock initiative, i'll ask the question I did on the beef forum and see if I get any replies this time.
One point proposed "Marketing Choice - Pursue the removal of Canadian Wheat Board monopoly control over wheat and barley." Now if this program is about supporting the livestock industry in Canada and the CWB acts to keep grain prices low in western Canada as some claim shouldn't the AB government be campaigning to keep the CWB monopoly to help the livestock farmers? Or is it an admission that they know removing the CWB monopoly will in fact lower grain prices rather than raise them?

[wilagro]

"Or is it an admission that they know removing the CWB monopoly will in fact lower grain prices rather than raise them?" - grassfarmer

Nobody seems prepared to answer your question. I wonder why?

[parsley]

"Or is it an admission that they know removing the CWB monopoly will in fact lower grain prices rather than raise them?"

I don't quite understand.

Do you mean to ask:

Or is it an admission that they know removing the CWB monopoly will in fact raise grain prices rather than lower them?

Is this what you wanted answered by any chance?

Parsley

[charliep]

A long ways from global warming

Will note that barley is already a dual market. 80 % plus of the barley produced is open market/sold to the domestic feed industry.

Barley acres (something the livestock industry has to note) has been declining because barley (both feed and malt) are less profitable than other cropping alternatives (even today). To put the numbers into perspective, I note this years 9.9 MMT barley crop forecast from the CWB. Put some weather problems into the summer and Alberta will again be an importer of US corn (assuming $7/bu stays and a $1/bu basis) puts track Alberta corn/barley at $320/tonne.

As a livestock producer, would you favor having to purchase all your barley from a single desk. Your neighbors will deliver to the CWB, get an initial payment (or perhaps a CWB pricing that has no relationship to the price you pay as a feeder). As a buyer of an input feed, you are forced to buy from them at whatever price they choose to charge (likely based off corn). You have no recourse if you feel you are being treated unfairly other than the courts. Would the livestock industry be prepared to do this? What is the cost of doing this to both buyer and seller? Would this increase or decrease barley acres?

To answer your questions, Alberta government sees improved returns to farmers in an open market for barley based on better price signals/increased competition from the export market and from there an improved reason to grow barley/invest to improve productivity. Yes barley prices would go up. From the CWB survey, farmers in Alberta (and SK/MB) agree with this view of the world.

[charliep]

The livestock benefit by the way will be consistent supplies of feed. In the current market, you have inconsistent feed supplies and your pricing has been US midwest corn plus freight. I don't think the livestock industry can afford to import all your feed or pay local grain producers a US imported corn competitive price.

[charliep]

grassfarmer

Question to how you see the CWB providing farmers value?

Then I am going to put you in the shoes of a maltster. You go to the CWB in the spring and they offer you a malt barley contract for say $8/bu. Based on your margin need, you see profit and are willing to do business here. At the same time, you book the malt product with a brewer (profit margin locked in). The summer proceeds and there are crop problems/prices increase. You sleep well at night knowing you have a CWB contract. You have forgot that the contract says you are responsible for finding the barley in the fall. Come fall, the initial payment for malt barley is $5.25/bu and a PRO of $7/bu (by the way, you don't know where this number came from because you paid more than this 6 months earlier and prices have gone up since). You want farmers to deliver but they tell you the local feeder is paying $7/bu cash/at delivery so why would they be stupid enough to deliver to you? You go to the CWB to have them help you find the malt barley but they remind about the clause that says sourcing is the maltster responsibility/problem. To summarize the contract with the CWB isn't worth the paper its written on let alone the match to burn it. The CWB does provide the advice that the maltster can pay premiums to attract the deliveries. What looked like a profit on the operation is now a major loss.

Could the livestock industry live with this? Even better, could they live with a equivalent to the cash plus program (CWB holds back top 10 % of the price you pay and gives the grain farmer some unknown amount down the road in a final payment)?

[grassfarmer]

What's wrong Parsley - can't understand simple English? I asked exactly what I meant to ask "is it an admission that they know removing the CWB monopoly will in fact lower grain prices rather than raise them?" Why else would this be listed as an objective in a program designed to revive the fortunes of an ailing livestock industry.

Charlie perpetuates the contradiction when he states that they (Alberta government)see improved returns to farmers in an open market for barley based on better price signals/increased competition..."
but at the same time:
"The livestock benefit by the way will be consistent supplies of feed. In the current market, you have inconsistent feed supplies and your pricing has been US midwest corn plus freight. I don't think the livestock industry can afford to import all your feed or pay local grain producers a US imported corn competitive price."
Lets keep it real - if the barley price in western Canada goes up as a result of freer marketing the feedlots will need to pay more for their feed. Consistancy of supply will not land the feed in their lots any cheaper.
You can't have it both ways - if removing the CWB raises grain prices that will hurt the livestock sector. The fact that the Alberta Government has now come out and stated that removing the CWB will prove adventageous to the livestock sector can only mean that they expect grain prices to fall not rise if the CWB is removed.

[perfecho]

"To answer your questions, Alberta government sees improved returns to farmers in an open market for barley based on better price signals/increased competition from the export market and from there an improved reason to grow barley/invest to improve productivity. Yes barley prices would go up."
or.......did major corps. lobby goverments so they could have a piece of this pie.....kind of like the open market with cattle and all the competition that bolsters that commodity? ;-)