For what its worth

[cottonpicken]

A fairly respected poster on another site has ran some numbers and is talking about the likelyhood of a ten billion bushel corn crop.The word crisis was used.

I think the forecast was for a 12.5 to 13.5 billion?Is that right Charlie?

If this becomes the reality....just imagine!

Tonights opening should be good.

[furrowtickler]

Add a western canadian crop the is in relitively good shape but at least two weeks behind at this point.

[charliep]

Last USDA forecast (not survey based yields/still uses seeding intentions from March) was for 11.7 bln bu based on 149 bu/acre yield. The May number was 12.1 bln bu based on a yield of 154 bu/acre. US produced 13 bln bu in 2007/yield 151 bu/acre.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Fast forward to present situation. Iowa is about 15 % of US corn acreage.

http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/pspl0308.txt

Assuming about 12 mln acres potentially harvested and a average yield of 150 bu/acre, Iowa represents about 45 mln tonnes of production. That is pretty much a western Canadian crop. Things are going to be interesting ahead.

[charliep]

I would agree with the everyone, it is going to be interesting.

I've been on the Corn wagon all spring. I think Corn still has more upside, but I'm focusing on the next big move........Beans.

I think Beans are a no brainer, looking at the charts, we left a nice gap last week. 74m acres are required to meet demand, this won't happen. In addition to the acres being short we also need a 41 1/2bpa yield, this is also very unlikely to happen now with the late planting.

I did some digging this weekend, and the Soyabean crop as of June 8th was 56% emerged, this is the lowest in 10 years, the next worst was 03 when 62% was emerged, and that year the final yield was 33.9bpa, so this year to grow 41 1/2 with a 56% emergence, it isn't going to happen.

If and when we break Mar 3/08 highs It will evident to load up on Beans. Which is also going to send little sister Canola to the moon!!

Haven't looked that close at Canola chart this weekend, but if beans break these highs.......... I will project looking at the Bean chart, before we harvest here in Sask. Beans could hit $20 bones before harvest.

It will be fast and furious when they go.

[SASKFARMER3]

Just talked last night on phone to friends in Iowa who farm. They laughed watch for 9.00 Corn. One day last week something like 9 inches of rain. Their on well drained ground but here is the other kicker. Wind from SE at 100 MPH so all fields corn have a angle and are jointed. This was accompanied by heavy rain. Soybeans don't like excess water like peas in Canada.
Again the experts said were going to produce a huge crop but mother nature cooked that goose. The buyers have to realize the days of over supply are over.
Canada is next thing last year Canola Blooming Farm progress show Wednesday. Any one have a field their yet.
Wheat is two weeks behind.
Just my observations. IOWA IS A MESS>

[bucket]

And back to the Burnett's view thread.

He will be telling the world about this when?

After the world has come in and priced what little good wheat there is at a discounted price.

You guys that respect burnett just okayed the cwb to give your grain away.