Statistics Canada Crop Acreage Estimates

[charliep]

Just a note to let everyone know that Statistics Canada numbers are out today. The biggest change was a 1 mln acre increase in canola and 1 mln acres less summerfallow.

The other issue to watch is barley at 9.1 mln acres, down from 9.3 mln acres in the March intentions and 10.9 last year. Assuming 1 mln acres of silage (I know likely high) and an average yield of 60 bu/acre (know some will talk the number down), that will result in crop production somewhere around 10.5 mln tonnes. Assuming 2 MMT destined for malt barley and a further 500,000 tonnes for seed means about 8 MMT available (assuming good weather). Feed barley supplies will be tight again in 2008/09.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080624/d080624b.htm

[bucket]

What I find interesting is this.

15 mln acres of canola times 30 bu is 450 million bushels.

14million acres times 35 is 490 mln bu.

Point is more acres this is not going to make more bushels from the crops I have seen. I wouldn't call these numbers bearish for canola.

Does statscan report number of acres with frost or yield potential because of it?

[boarderbloke]

bucket, i think your right on track, and something else that makes me think so is a comment i heard (regarding canola trade so far today)while spraying this morning, was that it was the "Speculators" that were "Selling" the canola market, and "Commercials" were "Buying"! i think that those who really think about the numbers and the problems with the crop will be money ahead if they were to be buyers. have to go spray another tank before the wind switches.

[charliep]

This reports day in the spot light/impact will likely be a day and then will start trading other information (i.e. weather).

Realizing the challenges, I always hope for a big crop that challenges our ability to market versus a small crop that leaves customers not able to fill their canola needs/looking for supplies elsewhere. I suspect Canada will have a home for every kernel of canola.

What concerns me more is the volatility and the impact on grain contracts. Agri-ville participants have noted several times the wide basis levels. Have started to hear some companies that will only do basis contracts/will not offer a forward price more than 30 days out.

[cottonpicken]

i see a perfect storm for feed grains over the next twelve months,once the meat price takes off.

[sidvicious02]

I'm a little surprised about two things from the report: 1) huge decrease in oat acres....producers really did respond with their drills to the lazy new crop bids this past winter, 2) an increase in flax acres??? I had assumed that with canola looking so attractive that most "fringe" flax growers would jump ship to canola being that it is "easier" to grow. Hmmmm.

[SASKFARMER3]

Where is all the canola, Just after another round trip PA Saskatoon Swift to Regina Weyburn and Up to Yorkton and where are the canola acres in Sask. Also where is this so called bumper crop, Van thyme says were 70% covered the ground, That's good news since July 1st is less than a week away.
Any way FLAX is up in Sask by all the fields. A friend summed it up this way.
18.75 x 20 =$375.00 Flax
25 x 14 = $350.00 Canola (Frost Damage Flee Beetle Cold ground ETC ETC)
Cost to grow flax are simple fert chem and seed.
Vs Expensive seed TUA fert Disease spray spray and harvest.
Profit is in flax boys. (I didnt grow an acre. Oh Well Missed that one.
Oats is down thats seen plus barley.
Maybe stats can got some right the extra canola acres have to be in Alberta and Manitoba or maybe the Yukon.

[charliep]

The full statistics canada report including provincial breakdown is available on line for free.

http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/22-002-XIE/22-002-XIE2008004.pdf

[Hopperbin]

ON my trip to the Farm Progress Show 2 hour trip it appeared Canola was replaced by Peas, but at home its almost 40 percent Canola like usual. No frost damage just late maturity due to shallow planting delayed germination.

[Jay-mo]

I can definetly buy the increased acreage report for canola. Theres more canola seeded to canola stubble in my area then I have ever seen before.
I've stuck with my normal rotation for the most part but some guys definetly are looking to cash in on canola in 08.

[SASKFARMER3]

Our local Chem Dealer and another Big hitter use to Say push the Rotation. Well Last year they pumped huge dollars into their Back to Back and three year rotation and lost big time. I wish those guys luck. Take another 1 million acres out due to Stupidity.

[furrowtickler]

Have these guys ever heard of club root?