I need these questions answered.

[cottonpicken]

Ohhh so sohhy.mes thought wees were talking grain pwice.

Dees pros so lows cause theys dont knows.

Bottineaus so lows cause theys dont knows.

Does frans knows?
Does charlies knows?

[Kodiak]

Grow up. Most 6 year olds show more maturity.

[Fransisco]

The question is why are the CWB PRO's and fixed price contracts so low in comparison to grain prices, cry baby.

If you think its because of inflation, go ahead and impress us, make the argument.

[boarderbloke]

i will go out on a limb here and suggest that the Pool Return Outlook is a forecast(the reason they call it an Outlook) for prices from Aug08 to july09, 2009 is a long way off. i think that the current cash price probably plays a roll in the composition of the PRO, but other long term factors would also be in the mix. does anyone one know how recent the information gathered to project the PRO is? are the latest rains in the Midwest part of the PRO, or is the info being used old and out dated, much like Statscan??

[cottonpicken]

O.k no more chinese impressions.

My theories and line of thinking havent changed in four years and i'm to drunk and happy to go dumpster diving to prove it.

The cwb is playing it safe.
Wouldnt you if you were them?
They dont really know any more than kudlow and kramer.
Or bottineau,which is also playing it safe with their new crop prices.

And all that being said.......

THE BROAD MARKET HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH PRICES FRAN!

Are you from Mars?
Can you not wrap your head around the fact that money seeks a home to sit?
It wants a return?

Please tell me
relastate?
bonds?
stocks?
commodities?

Where does one go?

Ding,ding,ding

If you choose commodities you win!

Why are commodities flying for the past four years?

Ding,ding,ding

If you choose inflation hedge,you win!

Proof me wrong Fran.

You're going to be googling for hours with worthless cut and pastes,arent you?

[Fransisco]

"THE BROAD MARKET HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH PRICES FRAN!"

That's true when it comes to prices in general, its not true when it comes to the PRO which is always out of whack with prices, not just now.

You say the board is playing it safe. Maybe, but I seriously doubt it. Every comparison done between the simple average yearly price and the PRO shows the PRO coming in last. Will this year be different? Again I seriously doubt it, they've got some serious ground to make up and they've never done it before.

And you can go back to drinking and not doing your homework anytime you want cotton. Don't let us keep you from your life's work.

[cottonpicken]

No fran,its drinking and not doing my spraying.
My economic homework is going just fine.
And as i watch another super b of 4 year old mustard pull out,i think i'll have another one.

I've screwed up at lots of things.
But never money and value.

And i dont think i hurt any readers here with my calls.

[Fransisco]

Again the topic is about the disconnect between the PROs and world prices not Cottons drunken super B play by play.

You managed to get one semi relevant sentence in. Do you think you can manage a second?

[parsley]

cott drinks, fran spells and I'm verbose, and kodiak is as near to a perfect blogger as it gets, but we're all here.

And free to discuss.


Parsley

[TOM4CWB]

Fransisco,

Did you take your 'grumpy' pill or what!

When did you become a troll!?

Let Cotton have his day in the sun... he has added real perspective and wisdom to this forum... amongst some other 'character' that might offend!

But we are here to take the good and the off the cuff... cause that is who we are!

Politically incorrect... and willing to call it as we see it!

Inflation and currency devaluation are not talked about in any serious way... by most advisers.

eyes glaze over... and they think we are fools and cynics ... for even suggesting central banks and the World bank are the cause!

We can not afford to pay the interest on our national debts... if it went to 20%. the G7 nations would all crash and be bankrupt!

printing money... is the only option... and the Chinese have our number... and will call us on it!

Unless they are hungry... then they will buy food!

And that is what they & the SE Asians are doing!

We will pay off the middle east... to keep them rich and rolling in cash!

A full belly goes a long way to keeping the rifles in their crates!

[cottonpicken]

I thought the pro was the quesstimation of sales over the crop year and the world price was spot commoditie price?

Why are they different?

My guess is the "guesstimation" factor over a time period of more than one trading day.

[cottonpicken]

Pars,you mean ....not everyone drinks?

[cottonpicken]

Tom,thus brings us back to the sun tzu.


Very old numbers in my head go something like this;

-the us trade deficit with china could buy all of kansases farmland every few months

I thought this/was shocking.

This was years ago.

I beleive they could easily buy most now-in an open market.If it wasnt for inflation.Spooky eh?

Or maybe their lovley people that take ever depreciating dollars with a big smile cause they dont know any better.

Or maybe they know that eventually someday they'll just refuse our dollars,(raise theirs values,lower ours)drive commodities to the moon(which they can purchase cheaper),which will drive our interest rates north(trust me on this one fran),thus sufficating our consumer based economy under are own pillows.

And then we can bomb the mofos.

[Fransisco]

Uhhh Tom, its nice to see you being such a good friend to cotton and all that,I'm sure he really needs one right now, but trolls are the ones who pull threads off topic.

Topic Nazi would be a better way to define me right now. And yes I get grumpy when what could have been an interesting discussion gets pulled off topic but I did start by nicely saying please. Bucket put time and effort into asking serious questions and I think its not too much to ask that people respond in kind. Its a question of respect.

I don't disagree with cottons basic premise on inflation and money looking for a home but it is not relevant to this discussion.

Poorly spelled, cryptic responses, and a schnarky attitute are one thing but at least stay on topic.

[bucket]

Cotton

Ok, so the pros are a guesstimation of a longer period of time. What is the MGE and its hrs contract?

The spot price becomes part of the average over a crop year by which to measure if the cwb is doing a good job. Flaman said on previous threads that the cwb has sold at these higher prices and their asking prices are published daily. There is a big disconnect between what they ask and what we end up getting paid. The asking price follows MGE prices and tracks Portland prices as well and yet nothing enables us to get the elusive premium.

SO, with MGE hrs contracts being higher than the pro where is this premium that university profs have written about???

Someone offer up some answers without tying it to inflation, bonds, Jim cramer etc. The pros are pathetic and the board supporter should explain as to why this happening.