FarmlinksSolutions

[cottonpicken]

I see you guys havent taken my advice and lenghtened your archive data.

After this months oat and canola calls i can see why.

[cottonpicken]

O yeah feed barley.

You guys are also wrong there.The chart looks better than fine to me.

I would be expecting nasty phone calls in a month from your subscribers.

[btjadenlepp]

I think some farmers are too focused on the price without realizing there are many many factors that impact what is actually achievable for each individual operation.

Our service takes it all into account and delivers tailored recommendations to each client. Along with recommendations and ongoing consultations, we track and report on all aspects of the farm's marketing performance on an ongoing basis.

So please note, FarmLink has CLIENTS, not 'subscribers'. We don't 'make calls', we DEVELOP STRATEGIES.

We put the Market Insights up on the site to add to the dialogue on Prairie crop markets, some of which few analysts are watching and discussing in the media. There is no value there for a farmer focused on trying to maximize returns, which is why they are free for anyone to read. Generic market information gets stale very quickly. We work hard to keep our long-term proprietary views internal because they're very valuable, and not applicable to everyone.

It's always been tough trying to differentiate our business from the traditional methods of selling farmers marketing advice, but it's a real pain to have to clarify to an apparent egomaniac what he/she failed to pick up on in reviewing our web site.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[parsley]

Well, I want to thank cott's mother for feeding him a bit of oats because he's now feeling his oats a little, and that is refreshing in the farm community...a young farmer who questions, and barges ahead on his own, and researches and argues, and wants to learn, AND IS CAPABLE OF BECOMING AN EXPERT.

Yup.

Usually experts assume that, as in the past, all farmers will attend meetings with nary a dissenter, vote how the rest vote, write/read/repeat what is popular, and DO AS THEY ARE TOLD.

cott is the new age, and he, like the rest of us, is learning as he goes, but there are few places he is actually afraid to go.

Isn't that refreshing?

Tis one of the reasons I like him to stay on AV, even though he is a tiny-bit brash at times, but anyone confident in themselves won't take offense, and besides, he can always take a Miss Manners course.

I appreciate the cottons popping up out of the stubble. Maybe the West finally has a generation of farmers with two big round ones.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

Thanks pars,i think..


I was just buggin them a little,maybe came off to aggressive.

After the carnage on the commodity stocks on the tsx i might be eating crow.I dont know how the futures stayed intact.

A bad moon has risen in the markets,the volitility will be more extreme.
Oil has had its turn.
Now its golds turn.
The gold/oil ratio should come back into balance.

[agstar77]

China has a Trillion U.S. bucks looking for a home , they may start buying minority positions in commodity companies more than they have already. Maybe they will even dabble in ag. commodities. Could be interesting.

[cottonpicken]

Dont make market calls,you develope "strategies"

Dont have subscribers,you have "clients"

Cant explain this to an "egomaniac"


Prove me wrong

List all your archive data from here on out smart guy.

Then you guys and me can go head to head everymonth.
Because i've already kicked your butts up to this point.

[mbratrud]

Its hard to be right in a rising Market. Picking the top is nearly impossible unless your lucky.

In this Weather Market Time of Year, the Weatherman cant even predict the weather how the hell is a Market Analyst going to?

Beings your the expert where do you see Barley prices going cotton?

I think most Farmers will evaluate their Marketing Advisors on the performance on their whole basket of crops at the end of the crop year.

[charliep]

cottompicken

The only thing you have to do to be complete is put your name to what you say. A forecast without a name has little if any value. A name says you can be held accountable (and perhaps liable) for actions.

[btjadenlepp]

You still don't seem to get it - we'd be going head to head with apples and oranges. Comparing performance to outside sources is not relevant to what we do; it's also not possible on a public forum.

Technical analysis, which based on your comments it sounds like is the main thing you use to come up with price forecasts, is but one of many analytical tools we rely on. Have you, or would you really want to, put together strategies and forecasts on all the crops we advise on?
- 3 different types each of sunflowers, lentils, mustard, chickpeas and peas
- 5 types of dry edible beans
- Other non-futures traded, non-transparent, illiquid and volatile crop markets including rye and canary
- Canadian oat, corn and soybean cash prices, which don't track U.S. futures in any trackable way
- freight spreads on domestic wheat and barley between Lethbridge, the Peace, two regions of Manitoba and all of Saskatchewan including that big circle in the middle that is supposed to deliver at par but which has been kicking around at a $70/t discount to futures parity for 6 months - but i forgot barley is actually really bullish, and i'm an idiot for suggesting otherwise in last week's producer, and it would all be clear if i only looked at the chart, so maybe i should ignore the real world of actual buyers' bids and just toss out numbers, that would really help my clients be more profitable, right...

I could go on and on all day about all the different cash market dynamics that affect pricing of Prairie crop markets and farm-level returns, which I'd really enjoy because they are quite interesting to discuss, and understanding them pays off in spades to our clients.

Not to belittle the importance of charting and forecasting, but a game like you suggest is not the best use of my time.

And I think you're just feeding your ego in suggesting it.

[parsley]

Oh, cotton,

Analysts don't have to go "head to head" with you. lol (You tried that one before with Weber, didn't you? And he called you on it?) Brenda doesn't, either. lol She's earned the trust of her clients, which you have yet to get and do. She put their money in her bank account because they decided they trust her judgement. And probably with good reason.

Go back to the beginning, and with all the things you've learned, and read, and digested, and I have a great admiration for you for being studious, maybe don't present them to us as if you have been locked away in a cellar for thirty five years.
LOL


Parsley

Your mamma was so busy feeding you she forgot to teach you to say , "please". I notice it waas missing in your last post. lol

[cottonpicken]

Barley broke to a more than a ten year high yesterday(i havent looked for an all time high).

Whoda thunk?
Not these guys.

http://www.farmlinksolutions.ca/wcm-docs/resources/resource-1213381437.pdf

Funny how you say you dont make calls,but then print them.

And then you hide behind risk management and every client has different needs.

Guess what einsteins the clients all want the same thing-to make money.

And when they call you up and say "jeez you told me to sell so i sold and now the price is sky high"

Do you lie through your teeth and say "nobody seen this coming"?

Fundamentals first Technicals second

And pars do you know what bad manners are in my books-people who cant say sorry,i was wrong about everthing i said in the past

[btjadenlepp]

yes, barley futures have broken through but so have oats and neither market has responded on the cash side nearly as sharply, due to weaker fundamentals than the futures overshoot would suggest.

and last time i checked, farmers don't sell the futures price, they sell at the best bid they can get in the country. have you checked a sask line company feed barley basis lately? brokers ually pay better but with the livestock feed sector so slow and no other outlet (if only we could sell u.s. direct, but that's another thread) that side of the market isn't helping.

so go ahead and keep taking those market insights out of context, i appreciate the opportunity to clarify to everyone what really matters in marketing.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[parsley]

cott,

Of course analysts want to make money. It's always about money. Do you think they did the work simply because they like farmers? They get paid whether or not the advice is good or bad.

There was a little bit of squawking last fall from analysts when CWB policy hurt their bottom line a little, but the CWB rented the honeymoon suite, and they they both regained conjuagal rights over wheat and barley profits again, and you'll never hear another moan again, until the bottom sheet is threatened.

BUT if farmers want to dump their money in the prediciton-bag, I can only say, "It's their money to dump as they please."

Be just as indignant as you want, cotton. You're thirty-fivish. But when you're done being pissed, chart it, and keep records, and present it with confidence, not anger.

Jane Jacobs, look her up, could see the "big picture." She was able to analyze systems. And compare them. And predict.

She knew she could. She had drive and perseverence. She didn't fight about it, she simply did it.

So can you.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

I know Jane.
I heard one of here last interviews several years ago on cbc radio,which was about her last book "dark age ahead".Which is right in front me on the book shelve.

She was villified for the book.
But in my opinion she was bang on.
Great lady.