Canola Crop

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes but as of last Friday Durum from Assiniboia to Chamberland to Tugaske to moose jaw and Regina No fields were headed. None and most not close to heading, They are late. Durum could be lots of low grade crap from what I saw. Unless it burns up in next three weeks but then Canola in those areas will also take a beating.
I do agree with your comments on the incompetence of forecasting how its so right and farmers who drive around are so wrong.
Maybe its me but Ill trust a real farmer any day over some so called expert.

[charliep]

Just curious what the most recent published numbers are for Canadian canola production. I haven't seen any public numbers in the past week. I don't think furrowtickler number of 8.5 mln tonnes would be that far out but I haven't seen/gone any disciplined survey process. My numbers tell me a 25 bu/acre crop on 15 mln acres.

One of the things I never see commented on here is the demand side. I always customers into ones that will be canola buyers that will buy canola at almost any price and those that are price sensitive/will switch to cheaper oilseeds. Canola core customers are the domestic crusher (likely close to 4.5 mmt in 2008/09), Japan 1.8 mmt /- 200,000 tonnes depending on outcome Aussie canola, Mexico 1 mmt, remainder to US/seed/dockage. That puts core customer needs at about 8 mmt. To get Canadian canola prices to move substantially outside the values of other world oilseeds, our canola production would have to move below this number. 8 to 9 mmt will keep canola interesting (again relative to other oilseeds). Over 9 mmt and canola will price with other oilseeds.

A healthy part of any market is disagreement.

[charliep]

Remainder should have read 700,000 tonnes US, seed, dockage.

[TOM4CWB]

Guys Guys...

Looking at rainfall distribution over the last 30 days (CHECK PFRA Drought Maps)... shows about 1/3 of the prairies have real problems... 2/3 are going in the direction of about average. On our families farm... short rainfall doesn't translate into bad crops.... average yes in central AB.

Our crops have really developed and matured in the 10 days of heat we had... almost to average maturity to this time for a good chunk of Alberta.

West central SK is on the same track... and some areas east of Saskatoon have reasonable crops and rains over the past weeks.

I feel bad you folks missed the rain....

I hope the rain clouds open up real soon... and let your crops finish up with reasonable moisture!

[charliep]

The questions about skills/impact of analysts on markets got me curious. I note the best source of history/analysis is the charts. From there, I noted the comment analysts forecasts are the reason canola isn't $16 today.

Will note that Nov 2008 ICE canola nipped up into $700/tonne last week (prior to this weeks crash). So over the previous 9 months, Nov. canola has been above $700 exactly exactly 5 days (Feb. 29 to Mar. 6). Dipped into March/April and has been steadily increasing since (till this last week).

When I looked at at weekly continuous chart, the nearby contract has been above $700 for exactly 2 weeks. To capture the $16/tonne, you had to be jolly on the spot/a trigger puller. That occurred in March/well ahead of acreage forecasts. Market has been steadily rising for 3 1/2 months reflecting tight carryovers and concerns over 2008 yields.

From there, I encourage you to look at a CBT beanoil chart. You can lay this chart over top canola and it lines up almost perfectly.

[charliep]

Should be $16/bu.

[parsley]

Crops are jumping in the heat.

Today, from Whitewood to Regina on #1, lots of barley headed out, early canola looks good, late canola patchy and have a headache. Wheat just heading. Peas are blooming. South of Indian Head, crops are very good looking from the car window.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

Sask,i was refering to price not quantity,you wont have to be drunk to kiss that yellow faced green legged lady when the price skyrockets.

The point is,the rain didnt help,all the other crops are in MUCH better shape.

My brown mustard seeded later is twice as good.

I wont guess on the varibles-i dont have a large amount of experiece/expertise on canola,but a large area is hurt inmho.

I hope i'm wrong because i'm in that area and after taking a big drive i see a pile of others are too.

misery loves company

i hope i'm wrong

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom a buddy of mine just got back from doing the Yellow head to Edmonton and then Down to Calgary Lethbridge and then #1 to Regina.
I don't know what part of Alberta your from but He said Vegreville was excellent and that just about it. Where their is to much rain patchy and rest is patchy. So Call it a great crop, and oh by the way the rain fall maps don't tell the story. Otherwise I would have 55 - 60 on the way instead of a Average crop. But then again out of our 3000 plus acres of the crop yea 329 look really nice.

[charliep]

Before anyone considers me too negative, will note the fact soybeans have taken the leadership role in higher prices at the CBT over the past few days. Corn still has some negative price numbers but that may be long term positive. Kinda like fishing and sinking your hook a little deeper - sometimes the market has to head lower to attrack buying. What will be needed in corn regardless of whether yields at the 148 bu/acre or 153 bu/acre or whatever is a process of rationing available supplies through price. USDA will be out Friday but the first survey based yields will be August.

On the production side, I would likely be around 9 MMT but really don't have a strong view as whether closer to 8.5 or 9.5 - still a lot of weather ahead everywhere. Where I would watch things is on the basis side - smaller crops or quality issues is likely to tighten basis. Need to put all the above in the context of knowing what a good price is and making sure cash flow needs are covered this fall by planned sales.

[charliep]

Out of our 3300 acres I don't have 1 1/4 less than 45bpa right now.

From Porcupine to Carrot River to Humboldt down to Watrous over to Wynyard, I would say if have less than an average of 35 we would be dissapointed.

[SASKFARMER3]

snappy in that area you described, I as a farmer am depressed when it doesn't go over 40 to 60 but if 35 is great as you say for a canola area. That's a drop of 35% yield by my math. That's what I am saying its not a huge crop.