Canola Crop

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom a buddy of mine just got back from doing the Yellow head to Edmonton and then Down to Calgary Lethbridge and then #1 to Regina.
I don't know what part of Alberta your from but He said Vegreville was excellent and that just about it. Where their is to much rain patchy and rest is patchy. So Call it a great crop, and oh by the way the rain fall maps don't tell the story. Otherwise I would have 55 - 60 on the way instead of a Average crop. But then again out of our 3000 plus acres of the crop yea 329 look really nice.

[charliep]

Before anyone considers me too negative, will note the fact soybeans have taken the leadership role in higher prices at the CBT over the past few days. Corn still has some negative price numbers but that may be long term positive. Kinda like fishing and sinking your hook a little deeper - sometimes the market has to head lower to attrack buying. What will be needed in corn regardless of whether yields at the 148 bu/acre or 153 bu/acre or whatever is a process of rationing available supplies through price. USDA will be out Friday but the first survey based yields will be August.

On the production side, I would likely be around 9 MMT but really don't have a strong view as whether closer to 8.5 or 9.5 - still a lot of weather ahead everywhere. Where I would watch things is on the basis side - smaller crops or quality issues is likely to tighten basis. Need to put all the above in the context of knowing what a good price is and making sure cash flow needs are covered this fall by planned sales.

[charliep]

Out of our 3300 acres I don't have 1 1/4 less than 45bpa right now.

From Porcupine to Carrot River to Humboldt down to Watrous over to Wynyard, I would say if have less than an average of 35 we would be dissapointed.

[SASKFARMER3]

snappy in that area you described, I as a farmer am depressed when it doesn't go over 40 to 60 but if 35 is great as you say for a canola area. That's a drop of 35% yield by my math. That's what I am saying its not a huge crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

SF3, you don't think that a 35bpa average on 15 million acres is a huge crop?? No I guess producing 12mmt would be small wouldn't it.

[Wheatking]

I can't say about other area's but for what it's worth the canola crop looks great in our area(between melfort and Humboldt). It started out slow but is looking great now. And is there ever a lot out there, never really thought it was this much until all the fields turned yellow. I would guess anywhere from 45-55%, I know of some guys who have canola on canola.

Despite the slow start the canola is starting to come around and from what I've seen there may be more acres out there than reported, this may end up being a huge crop yet despite some large poor areas.

Wow SF3 you must be one of the better canola growers around if you expect those kind of yields. I know those kind of yields are attainable and have in the past, but to expect those kind of yields is a bit much, in our area anyways. I hope for 40 and I am disappointed in anything under 30. A lot of the stars have to align to avg 40 . I would say a 35 bu avg would be about right, for every farmer that gets 45 there are more that get 30.

[furrowtickler]

Snappy, 35 bpa is a dream for an average, there are 2-3 million acres in N.W. and north central Sask that will not average 20 bpa. My guess is Alberta will average out 35-36bpa, but Sask will be 25-26bpa, and all that depends on frost free days over the next 50 days.

[SASKFARMER3]

Snappy get out of your area and look around yes their is areas in Sask where 35 plus are going to happen I might even have a few but when you drive around their is one thing you will see, Poor stands thin, sick looking and big 3 tents rain will not save them. Average for Sask will be 26.5. Now areas this week that got 2 inches plus, Humboldt and Melfort and Kamsack yes they have huge potential but wait that's canola country our yields are usually big maybe that's why three canola crushing plants are around Yorkton in the near future. But if they are spraying Liberty last week in Buchanan to Wynyard etc. Do you think we might run out of time with the lovely below normal temp were getting.
Look, drive around.

[SASKFARMER3]

Is this big news to you SF3 that parts of Sask will have frost?? It happens every year. Is this a suprise that parts of Sask will have a shity crop?? It happens every year. Why don't you call a spaid a spaid once instead of trying the most negative SOB in the province. Yep your right I'm in Canola country, and unless we get a Aug 20th frost this ones in the bag!!

Barley half filled, and lodging Wheat starting to fill, some Canola done flowering with solid 2 feet of pods.

[parsley]

#22 Hwy from Stockholm to Esterhazy...


Canola blooming with good stands, flax good but not yet flowering, barley headed out and heavy and wheat good crop.

Parsley