Canola Crop

[bucket]

Thats right charliep the market intel was spectacular - exactly why did canola hit over $16 and durum hit 28 if the production numbers from statscan cwb et al were bang on. They were out by at least 500,000 tonnes last year. Absolutely stellar forecasting as I end up with $12 durum when the cwb sold supposedly lots of it for over $28. I wouldn't say the crop estimating people from any company or agency are competent. The buyers from around the world have better crop survellence that how we end up with $12 durum for an average price.

Average crop this year? Not likely as all areas have to produce average crops - not in my travels which have included around the moose jaw and regina areas. Sure they are good crops but not the usual great crops and what am I comparing them to - my crops that don't look so great.

[furrowtickler]

Tom 1/3 of the western Canadian crop may be well abouve(Alberta),not 2/3, but at least 70% of ths CANOLA crop in sask will well below average and in general it is all still late. Remember well over half of western Candian Canola is grown north of hwy 16 in Sask.
I think the Canola crop will come in at 8.5 at best - not even close to 10.5. And out of that number down graded canola will be much higher than normal.
Durum number is going to be very large.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes but as of last Friday Durum from Assiniboia to Chamberland to Tugaske to moose jaw and Regina No fields were headed. None and most not close to heading, They are late. Durum could be lots of low grade crap from what I saw. Unless it burns up in next three weeks but then Canola in those areas will also take a beating.
I do agree with your comments on the incompetence of forecasting how its so right and farmers who drive around are so wrong.
Maybe its me but Ill trust a real farmer any day over some so called expert.

[charliep]

Just curious what the most recent published numbers are for Canadian canola production. I haven't seen any public numbers in the past week. I don't think furrowtickler number of 8.5 mln tonnes would be that far out but I haven't seen/gone any disciplined survey process. My numbers tell me a 25 bu/acre crop on 15 mln acres.

One of the things I never see commented on here is the demand side. I always customers into ones that will be canola buyers that will buy canola at almost any price and those that are price sensitive/will switch to cheaper oilseeds. Canola core customers are the domestic crusher (likely close to 4.5 mmt in 2008/09), Japan 1.8 mmt /- 200,000 tonnes depending on outcome Aussie canola, Mexico 1 mmt, remainder to US/seed/dockage. That puts core customer needs at about 8 mmt. To get Canadian canola prices to move substantially outside the values of other world oilseeds, our canola production would have to move below this number. 8 to 9 mmt will keep canola interesting (again relative to other oilseeds). Over 9 mmt and canola will price with other oilseeds.

A healthy part of any market is disagreement.

[charliep]

Remainder should have read 700,000 tonnes US, seed, dockage.

[TOM4CWB]

Guys Guys...

Looking at rainfall distribution over the last 30 days (CHECK PFRA Drought Maps)... shows about 1/3 of the prairies have real problems... 2/3 are going in the direction of about average. On our families farm... short rainfall doesn't translate into bad crops.... average yes in central AB.

Our crops have really developed and matured in the 10 days of heat we had... almost to average maturity to this time for a good chunk of Alberta.

West central SK is on the same track... and some areas east of Saskatoon have reasonable crops and rains over the past weeks.

I feel bad you folks missed the rain....

I hope the rain clouds open up real soon... and let your crops finish up with reasonable moisture!

[charliep]

The questions about skills/impact of analysts on markets got me curious. I note the best source of history/analysis is the charts. From there, I noted the comment analysts forecasts are the reason canola isn't $16 today.

Will note that Nov 2008 ICE canola nipped up into $700/tonne last week (prior to this weeks crash). So over the previous 9 months, Nov. canola has been above $700 exactly exactly 5 days (Feb. 29 to Mar. 6). Dipped into March/April and has been steadily increasing since (till this last week).

When I looked at at weekly continuous chart, the nearby contract has been above $700 for exactly 2 weeks. To capture the $16/tonne, you had to be jolly on the spot/a trigger puller. That occurred in March/well ahead of acreage forecasts. Market has been steadily rising for 3 1/2 months reflecting tight carryovers and concerns over 2008 yields.

From there, I encourage you to look at a CBT beanoil chart. You can lay this chart over top canola and it lines up almost perfectly.

[charliep]

Should be $16/bu.

[parsley]

Crops are jumping in the heat.

Today, from Whitewood to Regina on #1, lots of barley headed out, early canola looks good, late canola patchy and have a headache. Wheat just heading. Peas are blooming. South of Indian Head, crops are very good looking from the car window.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

Sask,i was refering to price not quantity,you wont have to be drunk to kiss that yellow faced green legged lady when the price skyrockets.

The point is,the rain didnt help,all the other crops are in MUCH better shape.

My brown mustard seeded later is twice as good.

I wont guess on the varibles-i dont have a large amount of experiece/expertise on canola,but a large area is hurt inmho.

I hope i'm wrong because i'm in that area and after taking a big drive i see a pile of others are too.

misery loves company

i hope i'm wrong