Canola Crop

[TOM4CWB]

Guys Guys...

Looking at rainfall distribution over the last 30 days (CHECK PFRA Drought Maps)... shows about 1/3 of the prairies have real problems... 2/3 are going in the direction of about average. On our families farm... short rainfall doesn't translate into bad crops.... average yes in central AB.

Our crops have really developed and matured in the 10 days of heat we had... almost to average maturity to this time for a good chunk of Alberta.

West central SK is on the same track... and some areas east of Saskatoon have reasonable crops and rains over the past weeks.

I feel bad you folks missed the rain....

I hope the rain clouds open up real soon... and let your crops finish up with reasonable moisture!

[charliep]

The questions about skills/impact of analysts on markets got me curious. I note the best source of history/analysis is the charts. From there, I noted the comment analysts forecasts are the reason canola isn't $16 today.

Will note that Nov 2008 ICE canola nipped up into $700/tonne last week (prior to this weeks crash). So over the previous 9 months, Nov. canola has been above $700 exactly exactly 5 days (Feb. 29 to Mar. 6). Dipped into March/April and has been steadily increasing since (till this last week).

When I looked at at weekly continuous chart, the nearby contract has been above $700 for exactly 2 weeks. To capture the $16/tonne, you had to be jolly on the spot/a trigger puller. That occurred in March/well ahead of acreage forecasts. Market has been steadily rising for 3 1/2 months reflecting tight carryovers and concerns over 2008 yields.

From there, I encourage you to look at a CBT beanoil chart. You can lay this chart over top canola and it lines up almost perfectly.

[charliep]

Should be $16/bu.

[parsley]

Crops are jumping in the heat.

Today, from Whitewood to Regina on #1, lots of barley headed out, early canola looks good, late canola patchy and have a headache. Wheat just heading. Peas are blooming. South of Indian Head, crops are very good looking from the car window.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

Sask,i was refering to price not quantity,you wont have to be drunk to kiss that yellow faced green legged lady when the price skyrockets.

The point is,the rain didnt help,all the other crops are in MUCH better shape.

My brown mustard seeded later is twice as good.

I wont guess on the varibles-i dont have a large amount of experiece/expertise on canola,but a large area is hurt inmho.

I hope i'm wrong because i'm in that area and after taking a big drive i see a pile of others are too.

misery loves company

i hope i'm wrong

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom a buddy of mine just got back from doing the Yellow head to Edmonton and then Down to Calgary Lethbridge and then #1 to Regina.
I don't know what part of Alberta your from but He said Vegreville was excellent and that just about it. Where their is to much rain patchy and rest is patchy. So Call it a great crop, and oh by the way the rain fall maps don't tell the story. Otherwise I would have 55 - 60 on the way instead of a Average crop. But then again out of our 3000 plus acres of the crop yea 329 look really nice.

[charliep]

Before anyone considers me too negative, will note the fact soybeans have taken the leadership role in higher prices at the CBT over the past few days. Corn still has some negative price numbers but that may be long term positive. Kinda like fishing and sinking your hook a little deeper - sometimes the market has to head lower to attrack buying. What will be needed in corn regardless of whether yields at the 148 bu/acre or 153 bu/acre or whatever is a process of rationing available supplies through price. USDA will be out Friday but the first survey based yields will be August.

On the production side, I would likely be around 9 MMT but really don't have a strong view as whether closer to 8.5 or 9.5 - still a lot of weather ahead everywhere. Where I would watch things is on the basis side - smaller crops or quality issues is likely to tighten basis. Need to put all the above in the context of knowing what a good price is and making sure cash flow needs are covered this fall by planned sales.

[charliep]

Out of our 3300 acres I don't have 1 1/4 less than 45bpa right now.

From Porcupine to Carrot River to Humboldt down to Watrous over to Wynyard, I would say if have less than an average of 35 we would be dissapointed.

[SASKFARMER3]

snappy in that area you described, I as a farmer am depressed when it doesn't go over 40 to 60 but if 35 is great as you say for a canola area. That's a drop of 35% yield by my math. That's what I am saying its not a huge crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

SF3, you don't think that a 35bpa average on 15 million acres is a huge crop?? No I guess producing 12mmt would be small wouldn't it.

[Wheatking]

I can't say about other area's but for what it's worth the canola crop looks great in our area(between melfort and Humboldt). It started out slow but is looking great now. And is there ever a lot out there, never really thought it was this much until all the fields turned yellow. I would guess anywhere from 45-55%, I know of some guys who have canola on canola.

Despite the slow start the canola is starting to come around and from what I've seen there may be more acres out there than reported, this may end up being a huge crop yet despite some large poor areas.

Wow SF3 you must be one of the better canola growers around if you expect those kind of yields. I know those kind of yields are attainable and have in the past, but to expect those kind of yields is a bit much, in our area anyways. I hope for 40 and I am disappointed in anything under 30. A lot of the stars have to align to avg 40 . I would say a 35 bu avg would be about right, for every farmer that gets 45 there are more that get 30.

[furrowtickler]

Snappy, 35 bpa is a dream for an average, there are 2-3 million acres in N.W. and north central Sask that will not average 20 bpa. My guess is Alberta will average out 35-36bpa, but Sask will be 25-26bpa, and all that depends on frost free days over the next 50 days.

[SASKFARMER3]

Snappy get out of your area and look around yes their is areas in Sask where 35 plus are going to happen I might even have a few but when you drive around their is one thing you will see, Poor stands thin, sick looking and big 3 tents rain will not save them. Average for Sask will be 26.5. Now areas this week that got 2 inches plus, Humboldt and Melfort and Kamsack yes they have huge potential but wait that's canola country our yields are usually big maybe that's why three canola crushing plants are around Yorkton in the near future. But if they are spraying Liberty last week in Buchanan to Wynyard etc. Do you think we might run out of time with the lovely below normal temp were getting.
Look, drive around.

[SASKFARMER3]

Is this big news to you SF3 that parts of Sask will have frost?? It happens every year. Is this a suprise that parts of Sask will have a shity crop?? It happens every year. Why don't you call a spaid a spaid once instead of trying the most negative SOB in the province. Yep your right I'm in Canola country, and unless we get a Aug 20th frost this ones in the bag!!

Barley half filled, and lodging Wheat starting to fill, some Canola done flowering with solid 2 feet of pods.

[parsley]

#22 Hwy from Stockholm to Esterhazy...


Canola blooming with good stands, flax good but not yet flowering, barley headed out and heavy and wheat good crop.

Parsley