Canola Crop

[cottonpicken]

Alot of spread out chatter on cinderella.

Whats everyones thoughts?

A huge area is in trouble,old crop inventories must be low,technicals are great,buyers must be ready to hit the panic button.


There's no way this chick is going turn into a pumkin,she is going to get a lot prettier as the days go buy.

[SASKFARMER3]

Cant make a ugly crop to a bin buster even if you got 4 inches today. Sorry wont happen thats comming from 20 plus years of growing the crop, then wind becomes a problem in fall because no stocks to hold windrow, or if strait cut each plant with wind slams into each other.

[boarderbloke]

some fields in this area SESK hit full bloom a week ago, today while hauling, i've noticed small patches (4-8 meters across) already showing where the plants have stopped blooming, also other patches where the colour is just off a little. and of course the frost patches don't have anything, they never came back. the stands are thin and they're still drying up. the canola down here is in serious trouble, anybody who priced a lot already might be in more!

[northfarmer]

in our part of the peace we are dry, .7 to one inch since end of april, some spots more but we typically would have three to four inches or more of the west stuff by now....instead of the 40 to 50 bu yields it will be twenty or lower, rain could help still but none in the forecast....with he peace growing 10% of cdn crop and the stories you guys have coming out of sk i think cotton is right, she will be no pumpkin!!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Manitoba SE excellent SW Sask has potential but summer heat hasn't arrived yet. and north is late. its going to be interesting. would not lock in any production at this time. Plus the US crop are on full lying alert, Americans never tell real story about crop till all have their ducks in a row. Phone calls I get from Family and friends its late, drowned out.

[makar]

My area of the peace average 6 tenths or less of rain. Will be ugly.

[bucket]

So what do the experts /analysts/traders do now. They are told by farmers the crop looks like crap and they try to talk the market down. Does the day of reckoning ever come and someone other than the farmer loses their shirt on a terrible crop?

Base on what I've seen and heard canola should hit 20. But burnett the rocket scientist said it would be a 9mmt crop so I guess it must be a 9mmt crop. Never mind it was one of the worst starts I have ever seen and I am not in the best canola growing area.

To be a bumper like everyone is expecting all regions have to produce and that's not in the cards.

I am thankful canola seed was so expensive that it wasn't an option I was prepared to grow with no subsoil moisture.

[TOM4CWB]

bucket et el,

I hate to 'rain on your parade'...

BUT;

2/3 of the CDN prairie is in good to excellent shape. If forcasted rain over the next 4 days comes... we WILL have a very nice crop in these areas...

It is not nice being in the bottom 1/3 of an average ... EVER...

BUT;

Don't fool yourselves...

I don't think any great white horse with a knight in shining armour... is going to ride in and save you!

PLEASE;

Don't blame the CWB weather folks... they probably have the most advanced weather system... anywhere on the planet...

Lashing out at them does not do you any favours!

[charliep]

The last CWB crop production estimate I see is June 12. Do you really honestly believe the market is using 1 month old information to make decisions on? I went over what Bruce said at that point in time and I don't find any problem with it.

From an old life, grain companies have extremely good market (and production) market intelligence systems. That starts with people on the ground in the different communities/talk to farmers. Everyone (and I mean everyone) will have their own number they are using internally.

The fund side are more herders these days than anything else. As witnessed the last couple of days, this market can get stampeded easily. If you want to blame someone for the declines in the last two days, another US market analysis company has been highlighted (you can do your own research).

My experience is a forecast has a market influence for about a day (maybe more like 15 minutes) before something else takes over. Market analysts each have their own number. If you feel the current number the canola production number that is being used by the market is too high and from there futures are undervalued, get long.

[SASKFARMER3]

Boys Tom you to, if you think or believe that 2/3 of the western canola crop is excellent to above your smoking something very good. Travel and look on #16 highway from Peace down to Winterpeg, That's Canola Country. Not Calgary to Speedy creek. Because by my math if its dry in north (10MM to 15MM) don't make a crop in July its 50 to 60 that really works. Then dry till out side winterpeg. And north is extremely late. And swift will dry up in July with all the patchy poor crops its a 8.9 ton crop at best.
Not that glass is always half full but hey drive around and look then comment. Lots of rain on radar never hits the ground this year.
Like I said earlier in USA they make sure info is out so Farmers win then after sales the truth comes out. In Canada its CWB Elevators etc that win then farmers last. Its the Canadian way. Burnett is one of the Rose coloured glasses guys All is OK remember his frost comments its just a patchy frost. Yea he got that right didn't he in the two years it happened.

[bucket]

Thats right charliep the market intel was spectacular - exactly why did canola hit over $16 and durum hit 28 if the production numbers from statscan cwb et al were bang on. They were out by at least 500,000 tonnes last year. Absolutely stellar forecasting as I end up with $12 durum when the cwb sold supposedly lots of it for over $28. I wouldn't say the crop estimating people from any company or agency are competent. The buyers from around the world have better crop survellence that how we end up with $12 durum for an average price.

Average crop this year? Not likely as all areas have to produce average crops - not in my travels which have included around the moose jaw and regina areas. Sure they are good crops but not the usual great crops and what am I comparing them to - my crops that don't look so great.

[furrowtickler]

Tom 1/3 of the western Canadian crop may be well abouve(Alberta),not 2/3, but at least 70% of ths CANOLA crop in sask will well below average and in general it is all still late. Remember well over half of western Candian Canola is grown north of hwy 16 in Sask.
I think the Canola crop will come in at 8.5 at best - not even close to 10.5. And out of that number down graded canola will be much higher than normal.
Durum number is going to be very large.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes but as of last Friday Durum from Assiniboia to Chamberland to Tugaske to moose jaw and Regina No fields were headed. None and most not close to heading, They are late. Durum could be lots of low grade crap from what I saw. Unless it burns up in next three weeks but then Canola in those areas will also take a beating.
I do agree with your comments on the incompetence of forecasting how its so right and farmers who drive around are so wrong.
Maybe its me but Ill trust a real farmer any day over some so called expert.

[charliep]

Just curious what the most recent published numbers are for Canadian canola production. I haven't seen any public numbers in the past week. I don't think furrowtickler number of 8.5 mln tonnes would be that far out but I haven't seen/gone any disciplined survey process. My numbers tell me a 25 bu/acre crop on 15 mln acres.

One of the things I never see commented on here is the demand side. I always customers into ones that will be canola buyers that will buy canola at almost any price and those that are price sensitive/will switch to cheaper oilseeds. Canola core customers are the domestic crusher (likely close to 4.5 mmt in 2008/09), Japan 1.8 mmt /- 200,000 tonnes depending on outcome Aussie canola, Mexico 1 mmt, remainder to US/seed/dockage. That puts core customer needs at about 8 mmt. To get Canadian canola prices to move substantially outside the values of other world oilseeds, our canola production would have to move below this number. 8 to 9 mmt will keep canola interesting (again relative to other oilseeds). Over 9 mmt and canola will price with other oilseeds.

A healthy part of any market is disagreement.

[charliep]

Remainder should have read 700,000 tonnes US, seed, dockage.