Beer and the Board

[parsley]

Throughout the world, there continues to be a vibrant growth-requirement for more malting barley.

There are a few estimates that show a plus 10 mil tonnes by the year 2020.

Will Canada's supply keep pace with the population increases as well as more of them thirsty for beer?

Doesn't seem so.

Here we are in Canada....with our malting barley acres decreased by possibly some 14-17%, if the reports are in the ballpark, during a time of strong demand.

How do we fix the problem?

What IS the problem?


Parsley

[charliep]

When I see a posting like this, I always like to look back to the CWB "Grain Trade Forecast to 2011/12". Document is long in the tooth now but can be used to compare what the CWB said they would do to what actually happened.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/library/publications/popups/pdf/long-term_forcast-2011-12.pdf

For the Canadian barley production forecast, see page 8. For malt barley predictions, see pages 14 to 17.

[parsley]

Canada will most likey harvest less than 11 mil tonnes of barley in the fall.

In 2005/06 it was 16 mil tonnes.

30% decline in three years is caused by...pick one:

(a) Incompetent producers
(b) Bins bursting with carryover
(c) Terrible price this spring.
(d) Incompetent CWB Marketing Agent.

Take your pick.

Parsley

[charliep]

Not sure where your 16 MMT comes from. The CWB forecast (done 2001/02) that Canadian barley production would be 14.5 mmt in 2006/07. Reality in 2006/07 was 9.6 mmt. Canada will harvest a similar sized crop (under 10 mmt) in 2008/09.

Lots of reasons that barley production has not increased as fast as might have been predicted in the early 2000 s. A major one might be that growth in malt barley exports has been slower than forecast in this document.

[bduke]

Parsley.....the drop in seeded malting varieties is not necessarily negative... we tend to grow malt varieties in the hope of having our samples selected...and have been overweight malt varieties visavis feed varieties for many years. The malt "lottery" i.e. the increased value if selected was the attraction.

Had Prairie farmers been able to access the out of country feed markets the spread between malt and feed would seldom have been as attractive. Feed varieties tend to yield higher as well. Hence the total value to the prairie barley growers would normally have been higher.

Additionally, had barley been directly contractual with maltsters the probability of increased investment in malting plants was significantly greater.

This was why the Western Canadian Grain Marketing Panel unanimously endorsed a dual barley market.

The organic system you practise , contracting specific varieties and IPing would semm to be ideal for the growth opportunities in barley malt.

Beer consumption is growing in the developing world, and malt would be adding value to our barley.....Bill

[chaffmeister]

Prices in March 2008:

Canola: $600/t
Wheat PRO (#1 13.5): $340/t in SK
Peas: $9.00/bu ($350/t)
2 Row Barley PRO: $310/t in SK
Feed barley PRO: $180/t in SK
Feed barley futures: $230/t

What would you grow?


Malt barley pools over the years:

99/00: 2.6 mmt
06/07: 1.9 mmt
Drop of 27%.

07/08: 2.0 mmt (my forecast)
Likely drop of 23% from 99/00.


Smallest recent pool: 0.9 mmt (02/03)
Drop of 65% from 99/00.

If it's not moving, why grow it.



"What IS the problem?"
We have an impotent barley marketing agency in Canada.

"How do we fix the problem?"
Get rid of the impotent barley marketing agency in Canada.

[mcfarms]

Yes don't grow malt barley horrible horrible poor paying crop. Don't know why anyone would bother actually. Farmers that try to grow malt barley are all just fooling themselves and should all grow feed varieties.

[parsley]

There is opportunity for growing more barley because more people drink beer and the market is growing.

There is money to be made: for farmers and maltsters and brewers.

Industry people like Rahr/Bob Sutton are the ones who encourage moving forward, are builders. So very many Western farmers have a vision of building and dailoguing and networking.

Dialogue/vision/hard workers/committment/passion

Read that again.

We don't need the Wheat Board who watched organics built, and now court the same markets farmers built;theior only goal as monopolists wanting their cut.

What is the best route for success in BUILDING? In creating?
(a)Carrying along the greed bags?
(b)Or leaving them behind?

Greedy, scheming people who's single vision is simply grasping at a percentage of the results are more than vile. They impede moving forward.

Parsley

[davidw]

May be that's the way to get THE job done.

Grow so little barley that the board quits selling it, as it did for oats. I think it got down to under 0.2Mt and now its over 2.0Mt

[mbratrud]

Malt prices have not been premium enough to feed... and I think with Barley we are still seeing a hangover from the wreck in 04/05 crop year ater the frost. There were many growers that said enough with Barley... Oh well its good for us Barley growers...