Fertilizer '09 ?

[boarderbloke]

have many of you here purchased '09 fertilizer(some of your needs or all)??? i'm getting quotes now in the low to mid $800's(with no one offering any price protection)! looking at commodity price signals, i don't see much info that would justify putting down $70.oo/Ac for fert, along with an increase in fuel(from last April) and also the increase in herbicides that are also being talked about. perhaps if one holds the production from '09 into 2010, as i'm wondering if there won't be a steep decrease in fert use for '09(hence, lower yields globally[ can China and India afford these prices any more than we can]) i'm starting to wonder if this is a "band wagon" i want to jump onto. the 'hike' in prices seems like a lot of 'hype', and it's farmer hyping farmer as much as it is retailer hyping farmers. i wonder if this fertilizer hike is as much about a shortage as it is about helping farmers relieve themselves from an income tax situation before year end(and of course helping out the retailers bottom line and adding to their Christmas bonuses) this is a 250% increase from last year at this time!!! and it's not like we're coming off a low in fert prices as was the case with wheat(a 250% increase from $2.75 to $7.00)
just wondering if others here would like to comment on the situation with '09 fertilizer prices? i would just hate to flip out $850 now and find by spring the price is in half, all because some wanted to buy a tax deduction and the hype suckered more along for the ride.

[Kodiak]

I've booked (not yet paid) my '09 Nitrogen at .78/lb for 28-0-0. 10-34-0 quoted at $1200/MT and they want to deliver now. I have the storage. Most years I've paid for the tanks each time I used them. This time, I'm not so sure.

I have the same questions and concerns as you boarder. Starting to hear that 'insiders' expect a price decline by spring.

So do I follow through with these arrangements, or do I wait. Uncertain times for sure.

[silverback]

Lots of talk in this area about cutting right down to bare minimum and even lower. Nitrogen only for some guys until things improve?

I asked in another thread if anyone has prices from border areas of the US?

Summerfallow talk is getting stronger and even the sacreligous word ORGANIC was heard yesterday!

[Ron]

I would rather pay a hog or dairy/poultry neighbor for manure than get screwed over by a Fert dealer yet again. Look at pulses manure foliars or even gasp summerfallow. Variable cost on peas looks 150 per acre less than canola.

[Ron]

Phosphate, I would price. Nitrogen is a whole another story.

Is it just me, but Crude is starting to scare me. If we close below 122-123/barrel. I think Crude could see some major pressure. If I look at the nearby, looks like some pretty major support in this 122-123 level. If Crude tips........LOOKOUT!!! Grains will follow. There is no way in hell I would locking in 80cent Nitrogen, with the uncertanty in the markets right now. Fundamentals are out the window right now. This is liquidation right now, and it can get scary.

CP made a comment in another thread about a 60% retracement.......... I don't think this could be impossible.

[dave4441]

I have the opposite view, i have booked 28-0-0 at CDN $500. It is also only about $75/mt more then I paid a couple months ago to finish seeding. I can not grow a crop without N. I agree with the price of oil, but I think energy input cost of N is only one factor in total price P is a different story, and can get away with lower rates for a couple years. As well P prices have been at this level for a couple months (replacement cost in spring) and seems more stable. Everyone has heard the $2000/MT number, but it is just someone's guess.

[SASKFARMER3]

Dave the prices for our product have basically started to crash. Dropping over 30% since their high were back to normal prices for our product. With a average yield most farmers will break even this year.
Fert Companies are trying one last kick at the Can to get guys buying. I said it before what if we all told them to go to He-- and didn't buy.
HM
Dec 20, 07 395 382 321 563

Jan 03, 08 390 374 351 1400

Jan 10, 08 413 388 349 1400

Jan 17, 08 425 378 356 1400

Jan 24, 08 425 365 390 1400

Jan 31, 08 510 343 396 1400

Feb 07, 08 522 323 388 1400

Feb 14, 08 553 328 389 1400

Feb 21, 08 565 329 405 1400

Feb 28, 08 565 324 414 1545

Mar 06, 08 565 338 442 1545

Mar 13, 08 560 377 453 1545

Mar 20, 08 558 397 458 1727

Mar 27, 08 535 398 459 1727

Apr 03, 08 515 393 452 1727

Apr 10, 08 480 422 494 1727

Apr 17, 08 450 495 494 1727

Apr 24, 08 463 540 490 1727

May 01, 08 453 605 482 1727

May 08, 08 438 625 485 1727

May 15, 08 429 643 489 1727

May 22, 08 No prices

May 29, 08 434 648 421 1727

Jun 05, 08 445 625 420 1727

Jun 12, 08 453 625 430 1727

Jun 19, 08 510 618 455 1727

Jun 26, 08 525 634 461 1727

Jul 03, 08 545 683 462 1727

Jul 10, 08 545 727 460 1727

Jul 17, 08 625 758 464 1727

If you think the Americans are not suffering think again. If your cutting back what about a person in China and India.

[mcfarms]

We've been dealing with this question the past week or so too, that was the root behind my question on Pea prices. I have come to the conclusion that prices may rise a bit more but not as much as "threatened" but will likely be range bound, not much higher but not lower yet the stockpiles are empty in the big shed at the agrium plant near us, the local dealers sheds were swept clean this spring I took the last 650 urea out of the one a month ago to top dress canola under the pivots and they were scraping the back wall for me. We have to rebuild stocks in the near term, with China stopping exports of products after the earthquake and the issues with the barges this spring in the US it's going to take a while. Take into account there are pretty good crops over a big area in the world that'll take a lot of nutrient replenishment and I don't see a lot of use reduction next year. maybe next year this time we may see some down ward pressure but not yet I'm thinking. Or maybe next week as we just covered 75 percent of our phosphate and 40 percent of our N needs this week . ( With product that still has to be brought in) I'd be happy to be wrong though.

[dave4441]

I agree with you SF3, alot of risk when my expected fert costs are $80/ac on cereals and HRS looks to be $6-7/bu this year, let alone next year. But it could go higher, in fact I beleive 28-0-0 is already at $600/mt at some locations. I spread my liquid in the fall and I only have another couple months to buy it anyways, so bit the bullet.

[BreadWinner]

Just a note of caution, natural gas prices are on a spiral down from a high of over $13.50 now to just over $10.00. I think the energy price argument just got a little weaker and guys are saying just hold on a second here. I sure am not going to run out and price right now and if everyone else does the same they will be forced to lower prices. Sure India and China could buy lots but if prices drop, they will probably back out on the deal just like when they buy our grain and the price falls. It is always easier to sell to a buyer when you know they cheque is good.