Fertilizer '09 ?

[cottonpicken]

Actually Kodiak all those problems make the future more clear.

And its not going to be deflation.

At some point the demand will be killed and prices for fertilizer will drop.

My money is 62% higher nitrogen price come febuary.(62% higher than the previous febuary)

[Kodiak]

How do you arrive at that conclusion?

[Burbert]

Solution, over and over again. Formula, use less, grow less, more Summerfallow, spray less chemical. Screw our friends at the grain company, they are ready to screw us all the time. We just line up and say, when is out turn, we love farming!

[cottonpicken]

History.............

[vvalk]

Why do people here think that fert demand will be down. US farmers getting 150 to 200 bus corn at $% to $8 per bushel. There is $1000 per acre profit on some of those farms. There will be lots of money around to pay for fertilizer. Unless you have paid off land and machinery, chemfallowing is out of the question. Even at $1000 N, it still will cost you to cut back. Trying to find a reason not to buy fert will cost you in the end.

[vvalk]

suppose to be a 5 not %. Also around my area there is far more lodging of crops then poor crops. There will be crops that will gross up to $700.

[jensend]

i saw that 800 acres of good land rented in the states next year for $450/acre. they say with average yields and good hedging this is still profitable. i'm guessing they'll pour on the nutrients to achieve yield.

[jensend]

Has anyone seen Corn the past 2 weeks??? FYI, a 30% correction is going to change some of their thinking in the big corn areas.

[mbratrud]

I don't think there is any chance that Fert is going down this year, World demand is strong and the fact that the 2 biggest players in Western Can Viterra and JRI have been filling sheds are indications that prices are going up. Not saying these companies are immune to mistakes but they are large enough to make sure prices dont soften at their expense.

Why would Indian Farmers ration demand if they can buy Urea for $125 US per tonne because the remainder of the price is subsadized by their government... China Raised their export tarrif back in June...

I think guys that have not bought will be caught with their pants down this year. We bought Urea at $770 not as a tax write off but because we did not want to pay $1000 in the spring. one reatiler indicated to me yesterday that Agriums new laid in quote to them was $990 per tonne for 46-0-0.

I guess we all should have bought Agium Stock back in Jan - Feb!

[just_wondering]

We have booked our phos. at $1300. delivered and Nitrogen at $805.
nitrogen does not come until October phos. will show up in August.

I don't enjoy the prospect of paying for fert. now to plant next spring and then get paid for your wheat crop in August of 2010.
- See if you try you can even blame the CWB on the cost of inputs.3>
I'll admit in our program we need fertilizer to make it work, I don't see any more fallow but legumes will be up next spring, maybe I should still seed canola, and try that contrarian thing?

[jensend]

i see from that yara website everything but phos is up this week from last week. i just notice the other day they are the outfit that bought saskferco.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes they are!

[vvalk]

At the beginning of this week the new cost from agruim is $990/tonne. Dealer cost. Expected to go higher yet. May see a correction to where? $800 or $900. Or maybe we will be at $1100 or more. Those of you trying to find a reason not to buy fertilizer, what about glysophate. 20 to 30% increase in July and this price is only good until the end of Aug.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes Mr Fertilizer dealer glyfos did go up by 30% but fert has gone from .34 a lb anhydrous to .60 this sping and then now what ever.that's 100% plus, increase and cost of Gas is down this week and demand form China and India will be down. Explain MR Fertilizer.

[SASKFARMER3]

Also price this week, Canola below 13. oats below 3.20, flax down, peas at 9 all lost 10% this week. But lets keep screwing the farmer, hey its a national sport.