Fertilizer '09 ?

[vvalk]

Starting to sound like Burbert. Instead of worring about the farmer getting screwed, make the best decision for your farm. Saskfarmer you are really short sited. Your immediate area has a bad start to the year so you think that this will affect world prices.You keep talkin about how everyone thinks there will be a bumper crop but that can't be because your feilds are below avg.Its doesn't matter what your feilds look like. the world is going to produce a big crop. Prices will come down but will still be high to afford $1000 fert. Instead of bitchen about dealers buy the old stock fert at $650 and glysophate at $8. As much as you can afford Who cares if canola or oats are down. makes no difference globally. demand for fert will be up no matter what you think.

And no I am not a dealer. Just a farmer who doesn`t brag about how much land I have or how big my bills are.

[Burbert]

Corntinuous cropping requires lots and lots of fertilizer and chem. They are like junkies, gotta have it, can't live without it. A sign of the times I guess, greed begats greed. Lets keep talking it up, about how much we are gonna/willing to pay. I'm sure the eyes that are on this forum love it. I kin still make money wit $5,000.00 a T. nitrogen. Doesn't matter, cause I won't use it. Smaller crop, grow some forage/peas, summerfallow. Big guys are the boys with there a-- in the sling in this situation!

[cottonpicken]

You valk the tock vvalk but do you valk the valk.

Fert is high kemo-sabi,a correction in the short term maybe doo ehh?

Wee see.

[vvalk]

cotton.
Please explain your comments? Why respond with something like that?

[vvalk]

LOL LOL LOL!!!!!!!! CP that was pretty funny.

Fertilizer will not stay at these levels!!

FYI has anyone noticed Natural Gas in the last 2 weeks??

70lbs/acre average, @ 78cents/lb =$56.00/acre x 3000 acres= $168,000.00. Pay now, borrow $168,000.00 until fall 09 @7% intrest= $14,700,(one year and 4 months intrest)

$168,000.00 $14,700.00=$182,700.00.


Buy spring 09 @ 92cents/lb.

92x70=$64.40/acre.X 3000Acres=$193,200 $5800.00 intrest for 6 months until fall 09=$198,800.00

$16,000.00 difference buying now.


I'll take my chances on the market going down.

One more note. I read an interesting article today saying farmers need to realize all the hype about a shortage is what's actually causing the panic. Lots of buying now for 09 is keeping everyone on their toes.

P.S. this is only in the Nitrogen market, phosphate is a different story.

Should've listened last week to my broker, when he advised me to short Crude and Natural Gas.

[SASKFARMER3]

VWalk when I talk about crops its crops in general throughout Sask. This is what I am seeing on my travels every couple of weeks throughout Sask. If this is my farming area heck I must farm Millions of acres. Look and see its not a bumper, its going to be an average. US wont equal huge crops. And if the US consumer isn't buying goods wont that slow down China on their sales of goods. If I was a gambler Wait I am, I farm, Id bet this is a lot of Hype.
Its hype If I have to pay extra later big deal less fed tax.

[SASKFARMER3]

Also Snappy using your math it will cost our farm $5.33 an acre. Ill wait if it drops Great.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry its late, the example will cost a 3000 acre farmer 5.33 extra.

[vvalk]

snappy & Saskfarmer. Lets look at this at another angle. If your local fert dealer had a 1000 tonnes to sell. Lets say they used a dutch auction ( price starts at a $1000 per tonne and drops $25 per tonne until the first person puts his hand up to buy. ) Using hindsight to what prices are today and where you think they are going, at what price would you buy your N and P.

[vvalk]

Phosphate, I'm hearing $1350/ton for old inventory. I would grab this price.

Anhydrous, I don't think will be much higher than $1200-1300/ton.

[vvalk]

what is NH3. 80lbs per 100? I have only ever used urea.

[cottonpicken]

Just jokin with ya vvalk.