buying fert now, not!

[dfarms11]

first off, after 4 years of going backwards, I cant even consider buying fert as this years crop has already tapped me out. Same goes for most of my neighbours! I am going to use the same attitude as I used with my calves this past winter. Just don't even listen to the hype. If I did with my calves I would have sold them all for $400 avg. Now I can sell them for $800 . I could be wrong but a lot of times if you do the opposite of what the experts say you are better off. So I am not going to lose 1 min of sleep over it. I can't afford to.

[freewheat]

I also have no choice whether to buy now or not, and most of my neighbors can't believe anyone has wiggle room to buy now. I don't let it keep me awake at night, though, i'm a small time farmer with more important things to take care of. Kids! Farming is just not fun like it used to be, is it? I'm considering all my options. I'll make good money this year, our crops are excellent, but my heart aint in it anymore like it used to be. Give us a good year and the land hungry barons will be grabbing every acre they can, at the expense of we who actually could use some more land. I just am not into being aggressive. It often kills a guy.

[boarderbloke]

" Kids! ", i'm happy to hear you have your priorities right! your dead on freewheat, enjoy your kids while there home with you. too many don't, or make excuses not to. you just made my day.

[freewheat]

Hey boarderbloke. We have three of the little jiggers, and recently found out there is one more on the way. They really are my world, (along with my wife), and really, in the whole scheme of things, which matters more? Healthy kids who know they are loved, or a bunch of money and things, along with kids who wonder where they fit in or how important they are? I am a lucky man! Not financialy at all really, but boy I Love my silly little ones...

Maybe they are why farming is not so fun for me anymore: cuz nothing is as fun as they are!!! Your "That made my day" comment made mine better.

[dfarms11]

thanks freewheat, someone who is exactly in the same boat as myself!

[furrowtickler]

Good call boys, I have three under 8 years old and a less than average crop so the fert guys can kiss my a$$. Whatever money I do make will be going into hockey, dance, swimming, music lesson's and so on, not Cargil or Agrium for the next 10 months. IMO fert will drop by spring '09, or at least dip from this B.S. At least I will be able to support my children not theirs!

[dalek]

You sure there's only one coming freewheat? Maybe 2 or 3 crammed in there instead?

Got 4 now, 5, 4, 2, and 4 months.

[Burbert]

Actually, just about every aspect of farming sucks now. Everything, except crushing the CWB has gone the way the multi-nationals and railways want. All the advances have helped agribusiness, not farmers. Our governments have abandon the industry and when lobbied come up with the idea of a level playing field. What BS, they have no idea what farming involves. Big oil, real estate, fat a-- jobs with big salaries are some of the sexy things they are interested in. Rebuilding Afganistan is more important than farming in Canada. A 5 cent increase in the price of Shreddies may get their attention, but only for a minute, cause the cell phone is ringing and they are distracted because the market is spiraling downwards and the US economy is in deep, deep do doo! I'm not buy now either screw them......

[bucket]

Don't get too discouraged fellows. History has proven that peasants revolt. We as western canadian farmers haven't hit the breaking point just yet. We have always found ways to make it through. Usually like most it is found in a simple question from the kids that put it all in perspective and somehow we think of when we were that age and thinking and asking the same questions. It reminds us of better times.

The inputs today are nuts but the companies are playing a chicken and egg game. Farmers will reduce and the production will go down. Grain will go up but governments will nationalize the fert and fuel or subsidize the farmers to the hilt because we won't be able to feed ourselves.

The bumper is not there and the world is short of food. Enjoy the kids, the good times are just about to roll.

[furrowtickler]

Good comment bucket.

[just_wondering]

fully agree with everyones comments on the kids. they are the reason for everything I do. I have three 6-4-2

As for Fertilizer It sucks but farming as much about risk management in inputs, as marketing. I can see prices going higher as poorer countries subsidize production to avoid food riots and encourage their own food security.
IMO

[cottonpicken]

Well you guys either:

a-dont actually farm
b-dont have a crop
c-dont do well at math

If its not one of those three you dont have a right to bitch.

As gross returns per acre rise so will net returns.

Do you think oil companies want to return to 27 bucks?

[almoy]

You are not necessarily right cottonpicken. If the inputs rise too much the net income could end up lower !!

[dfarms11]

well cotton, I pray that you are correct. My fert costs $100, chem $40, seed $30 ins $20, equip over $60and land at least at $40. Now they are predicting $8 wheat at 30bu, please tell me again that I shouldn't be worried!

[furrowtickler]

It all looks fine on paper there cotton, but a lower than average crop or a hail storm, and or frost event will turn your big gross numbers into an ugly net reutrn. All the above are a reality at this point in the season. My point is that if I dump $150,000 now into fert for next year and I end up with a big freeze(50/50), that leaves me and many others without any cash to support the family. I will take my chances and buy fert once the crop is in the bin, it may cost 10-15% more but at least I will not leave my kids hanging while the local guy at the fert plant goes to disney land on my money. I am willing to share as long as I make money first.