buying fert now, not!

[SASKFARMER3]

I for one have been too to many farms that had all their inputs in the shed but had no cash to get to next year so they thought they could delay payments and not pay fuel etc and taxes. Good slick talking fert and chem dealers that are told from head office we need to move product because were going to increase prices. Guys family is more important than any farm. If we all told them to go to HE-- their would be change but as long as Joe sleepy farmer falls for the hype they have control, its the same with money if farmers ever get to a point of not needing any operating money watch and see who will be in control. its all about control and most don't get that

[BreadWinner]

I also have an obligation to keep a roof over my kids heads not to mention clothes, food and all the extras. I think we are all being carried away with all the excitment of todays markets. A basic rule to remember is "what goes up always comes down". We are all a hailstorm or a early frost away from a scary reallity. If I had prebought my fertilizer now, ordered a new tractor, traded off the sprayer, got a different combine, put up new bins, bought a new boat and camper, booked the winter holiday, you would thing I was planning for a big end to my farming career. I thing we have all been without a paycheque so long we dont know how to spend it fast enough. I think we all better start letting the fertilizer, chemical, and machinery companies know that the crop is not in the bin yet and the money is not in the bank.

[just_wondering]

I think the point vvalk was trying to make and I agree is buy now, or don't the market doesnt care.
You may or may not have a crop somebody does and is paying that price and you have to match it or wait till you can pay for it
price will either go up or down.
futures price of natural gas has almost no relationship to the price we pay !
repeat
futures price of natural gas has almost no relationship to the price we pay !
They will charge the most the market will bear or ship it somewhere else, it's their duty too shareholders.
I know we have duties to our families but again, nobody is trying to feed your family but you and yours.
What we need in fertilizer is extra capacity and open free markets so that we to can tell companies that business can go elsewhere.

[SASKFARMER3]

OK ill bite, then why did fert go through the roof when katrina hit natural gas and we were told that's why its going though the roof now its not related.
Come on BS is BS you just don't get it.

[vvalk]

Saskfarmer. You are right that gas does make a difference when demand was lower and of course gas is the biggest component to manufactor fertilizer. But when demand outstrips supply then the price of gas will not have a bearing on fert prices. Right now all your betting on is that demand will ease. That is the question? Not trying to be hard about this but the world's demand for fert doesn't care about your guy's families. It will be harder to feed them this spring when fert is up 30%. It may be down too. But using emotional arguments will not help you run your business. Never forget your farm is a business.

[Hopperbin]

Fertilizer companies shares increase 6 fold. Farm enterprises increase in value 10 to 20 percent. Farmers are not on the winning end just yet. I pick D (Cotton has no kids) Well not sure we need any more cottonpickers running around anyway LOL.
Just a joke.

[cottonpicken]

To late,pair of boys 2 and 4.
Yes,they are more important than a piece of dirt.

[cottonpicken]

My arguement is this.

20 widgets per acre x 10 dollar per widget=200 dollars per acre

100 dollar an acre costs
100 net to me

20 widgets per acre x 20 dollars per widget=400 dollars per acre

My costs rise 40 %
140 dollars per acre costs

260 dollars net to me.

[silverback]

So CP, if you are saying that the price for our crops is going to double going into next year that will be great!!!!

Maybe we will buy a little fertilizer after all.

Is that what you are suggesting?

I might just believe you this time, but can you please stop the prices from gyrating so much?

[cottonpicken]

You would being doing well if you had believed me along.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes Vwalk it is a business and its grown from 12 to almost 50 quarters must be doing something right and usually when you guys run one way I am going the other. simply demand is a major component but if you think fert use is up your dreaming. See which neighbor used more than any of the last 5 or 6 years. your answer will be no just a little or none. Similar with roundup name one neighbor that used all his glypos because of the cool spring most didn't so demand up BS up its all hype and they are doing an excellent job of BS and most farmers are buying it. Again if its nuts in spring maybe we will not use as much, next year is probably a poor year if one is counting great vs poor.More suckers went broke in the good years than the tight years.

[vvalk]

Saskfarmer. Again instead of telling everyone how big and good you are, you should look at the facts. You are talking about your neighbours when you need to be looking at Brazil, eastern europe, India, China etc. North American fert demand has be stable for decades now. This new demand is what is causing all the hype. I see canpotex trains coming through my town twice a week. Your neighbours aren't using it. No one cares what you or your neighbours are doing! Especially the world.

[SASKFARMER3]

yea your right no one cares about North America oh well then lets all let those other countries support us. And lets see how far that gets us. Let them sell fert to China and India and see how well they do when the Crap hits the fan in those countries. Do you not think if we slow down like the USA will not china and india have problems because last time I checked most of their products were heading to North america. And when I talk about my area I am meaning over all farmers across western Canada. Thats all our neighbors.

[dave4441]

Anybody want to go to $300/MT Urea? Probaly will not be too pretty in Ag when that happens either. I have said this before, but as farmers we never believe that we are gouging/ripping off our customers when the price of grain hits the roof, but in the case of fertilizer we think it is criminal. It is just another market that we have to operate within.

[agstar77]

The rise in fertilizer prices, may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Even with higher commodity prices the risk /reward ratio is getting way out of hand. Operating funds may be the greatest problem for next years crop.