Walk with Crowd or Turn other way!

[SASKFARMER3]

I for one have been hammered by some for speaking out against going with the crowd. When fert goes through the roof follow the crowd and buy when land goes high buy etc. Expand in good years etc. Buy equipment when times are good and prices are up.
I like to go the other direction and think it has worked just fine.
But here is the question for discussion what is the best way to do things?
One go with the crowd or go against?
Their are pros and cons but what has history taught us. Does history repeat it self. If it does will high interest rates be next and a doubling to tripling of Cash reserves vs bankruptcy and debt.
This site is for discussion. Lets discus.

[northfarmer]

I have gained a lot of value in my business and investments being a contrarian, epxand the grain farm when things are the s&^%$, buy cattle when they are giving them away, lease land and buy land when there are no bidders.

In our part of the world we are dry. In twenty plus years I cannot remember it being this dry during the growing season. My crops are holding on reasonably well under the circumstances, and one pass seeding has been a factor. The attitude in our area has gone from a high level of optimism to quite negative. Higher fuel and fert along with poor crop and pressure to buy next year's inputs has a lot of people shopping their land for sale or rent.

We have been incrementally buying fert since the end of seeding and have 2/3 of this crops acres for next year locked in. The rest we will leave for the turn of the year to see what it brings. There will be lots of residual nitrogen, though we will test every field, we have planned a 20% reduction from this past spring and will cut phos back as we have been filling the bank and will take some withdrawls.

SF, I do not always agree with you, but do value your insight and opinion. I too am generous with my opinions and in doing so have become accustomed to having it come back at me.

I do not make decisions based on what the crowd is doing, I do what is right for my family, my business and me.

GLTA with harvest and the last of summer with your families.

[SASKFARMER3]

I know your area as I have been up their in the past it is extremely dry this year, which is unbelievable. Your fert purchases over time is a excellent way to do it gamble with remaining 1/3 good, way. We have some extra that was purchased in Feb march for this year and not used. Actually quite a bit. Remember I bought when the dealer had trouble because one of his sure things didnt buy, but he already purchased for him. Remember most independents are not as cash rich as one believes. A few large accounts and they are done just like us farmers.
GL and I hope you catch a rain soon. Enjoy your time with family.

[parsley]

SK,

Both.

Whether going with the crowd or going against the crowd will depend upon your own farm circumstances, and what suits your family and banker.

It may not be peak time to cash in on the stocks, or sell the calves but if one is buying a cottage, for example, ...maybe it's exactly the right time.

We can learn much from your experience and knowledge, SK, you have lots of both, from your successes as well as failures. Everyone has them. Sometimes, a few green eyes might have a pang listening to success, but that comes with the territory.

Continuing to be generous with your sharing defines who you are,and is appreciated, and "writing out loud" is how you do it.

Parsley

[TOM4CWB]

SF3,

You say what you need to say... I try to bring balance to the conversation... when I clearly can see the other side poking me in the ribs!

DON'T be offended... if it ain't true... it shouldn't bother you.

Balance is the key... you stretch one way... make a point... others have valid points just like yours was for you!

NO HARD Feelings! this is a discussion forum... not a court of law... and no contempt charges will be filed... and we will take some things with a grain of salt... if that is the need!

Have a great day... enjoy the summer before the cold winter days make us wish global warming would hurry up and get here!

[SASKFARMER3]

Parsley family is probably the most important thing in my life then good friendships. Farming is also my passion, its what defines me, but slowing down once and a while sure is nice too. Good luck.

[SASKFARMER3]

Hey tom I know where your coming from and that's great. Yes summer is drawing to a close, Most of work is wrapping up with the FED/Prov so August should have a few free days before pea harvesting etc.
Hey its discussion and if we didn't have open conversations we would be Russia or CWB I'm not sure which one.
Have a good one.

[cottonpicken]

You've been hammered?!

Interest rates are determined in the bond market.

This commoditie bull has a long way to go,were only six years in.

[mcfarms]

Saskfarmer

Perhaps I could make a comment here and I'm not attacking you but if there's anything I've noted that gets people after you is your seeming need to finsh alot of posts with your own numbers It may come across a little wrongly,I used to make the mistake when I was younger too and still find myself at times talking "dollars" and have to stop myself. People on here want to hear prices and thoughts, really I don't think alot care what you have or how much you make or owe . I'll guarantee you that there are those on this site that could write a cheque for you're whole operation and go on to the next deal,one thing to remember you might be proud of what you've accomplished and want affirmation from others but the best affirmation comes from within.
A week ago we were at a dealership making sure something we had purchased was in and everything was ok with it before delivery. While we were standing there a older about 1990 chev half ton came driving in. The salesman we were standing talking to said oh this is my uncle. The older averagely dressed man got out and came over and my father who was with me happened to know him from his younger days, had a visit with him and introduced me . After he had gone on his way and we had concluded our business we headed for home. On the way home I asked about the gentleman we had met my father chuckled and said that he was the 2nd largest landowner in that particular county behind the accumulated colonies and farmed well more than a township. Couldn't have told by his manner or appearance. My fathers like that too at 75 still drives his one old car out here everyday. The accountant that does our 2 farms books just chuckles about it.

Maybe somethig to think about....

[charliep]

Perhaps I will take to the investment side versus operations.

If I were in the wide down portion of my farming business life (thinking about retirement and no kids taking up the habit), would I be selling land now? Is land a better investment than other places to put money? Anyone who has outside investments may have the same aversion to opening envelopes with statements that I do these days.

Only other comment is may be a time to look at a farms land and look at unloading land that has a poor fit with business (quality, location, opportunity able to be sold for a high price well above productive value, etc.). May be an opportunity to reshift land base.

[charliep]

Will also add the perspectives of expanding land base or holding the line. Similar comments on equipment. Borrowing more money or paying debt.

[parsley]

What you've highlighted charliep, is the important thing....that each operation needs different things..."Borrowing more money or paying debt." ..."investment side versus operations."

FARMERS HAVE A DIVERSITY OF NEEDS AND OPINIONS.

And perhaps better than anything else, Agri-ville will help to highlight that all farmers in Western Canada have different wants, and different challenges and different dreams.

One shoe does not fit all. That has always been my contention. And one size does not fit all because a dog remains a dog. Some want and need affirmation from others. It's not good or bad. It just is.

Accept the dog instead of trying to make him into a cat. I like SK exactly how he is. He posts on this website as if he was sitting in the halfton beside you, and good on him. Good grief, I cannot imagine remaking cotton into MY idea of better, can you? It would be a flop. LOL

When you accept, you can begin to enjoy each other.

Parsley

[parsley]

I guess I made it sound like everything will work out in the end. It won't.

I should have added that there are always some folks who will never like you or your thoughts, or accept who you are. They will totally reject you.

It is what it is.

Parsley

[dalek]

I always go back to Grandpa's advice on how to survive a land-buying frenzy when one hits.... be the one that started it, then sit back and watch your neighbours. It's pretty much been the way it's worked here for at least 3 generations now, every time we buy a farm, the neighbours all run around panicking thinking they need to expand too and the ones that do end up paying 50% more than we did while we've already moved on to making it pay.

[furrowtickler]

We walk in our own path, not turn the other way or walk with the crowd. I find it amusing to grow better than average crops with an investment in equipment 1/3 less than the crowd walkers. "They" say it can't be done but we are doing it with results that matter. It is nice not to have a 1/2 mill tied up in seeding equipment/tractor that will not make you one more dollar per acre. Just one example of walking our path.