U.S. increases exports of Spring Wheat 30% in 07/08 - Canada decreases 12.4%

[LWeber]

www.ndwheat.com

2007/08 Marketing Year Yields Strong Exports of Hard Red Spring and Durum Wheat

by ND Wheat

Posted on 7/31/2008

2007/08 Marketing Year Yields Strong Exports of Hard Red Spring and Durum Wheat Exports of U.S. hard red spring wheat reached 324 million bushels for the 2007/08 marketing year which ended on May 31, 2008, the fourth highest level on record and 30 percent higher than the 2006 marketing year. The year also marked record sales to Spain, Mexico, Thailand, El Salvador, Colombia and the UK. There were 55 countries that purchased hard red spring wheat, up from 46 the previous year and 38 of those markets showed year-on-year increases in sales.

By region the improved export level was led by a nearly 3 times increase in sales to the EU compared to the 2006 marketing year, a 27 percent increase to Latin and South America and a 39 percent increase to Africa and the Middle East region. Sales to Asia fell by 3 percent from the previous year, as exports to Japan fell slightly from their record import level posted in 2006. By region, Asia still accounted for the bulk of the sales with a 50 percent share, followed by Latin and South America with 28 percent, the EU with 17 percent and 5 percent to Africa and the Middle East.

________________________________________

Top 5 wheat export countries in 06/07

Wheat
(Estimated tonnes shipped with 07/08 in brackets)
Canada
2 342 000 (2 100 000)
Sri Lanka
917 000 (721 000)
Indonesia
1 536 000 (1 370 000)
Mexico
1 187 000 ( not on list)
United States
1 057 000 (740 000)

[LWeber]

The comparison in the above post at the bottom is Canada - not the U.S.

Domestically Canada uses about 7 MMT of wheat ex durum including seed.

The U.S. emptied their bins and increased market share - Canada did not.

Who makes the decision when to quit selling and keep 3.3 MMT of stocks for the following year?

Do you agree or disagree with Canada holding back wheat stocks?

Who do you think they are protecting? You?

[wilagro]

I am sure that Canada could "empty our bins" if we subsidized our exports as the USA does.

Why don't you post ALL of the ways that the USA employs in subsidizing their wheat exports?

[LWeber]

Even if the U.S. government subsidized wheat exports last year Willy...

What is better:

1) The U.S. government subsidizing exports with taxpayer's money or...

2) The Canadian government letting Canadian farmers subsidize wheat exports with their own money.

After nearly two years, this should not be a CWB debate any longer...this should be a debate about Canada's government.

Apparently, red light districts are not the only places you have to pay for lip service.

[agstar77]

The debate should be about this government. It is basically putting us back into deficit financing to win votes and finance wars. It has done little for Ag. industry. These guys can spend with the best of them. 300 million t o Bombardier, just carrying on the liberal tradition. Peter Mckay financing students to a lego building contest in the U.S., through alcoa a regional business devlopment fund. Of course only students in the Maritimes. Oink , Oink. Didn't they come into office swearing fiscal management and no corruption?

[GrainBeetle]

LWEBER: How do you know there really is 3.3 mmt of carryover?
Do you agree with stats can?
Do you question their carryin stocks or production numbers?

Do you believe govt numbers?

Whatdoes your own analysis tell us of 2008 wheat carryover stocks?

[chaffmeister]

FWIW - CWB says wheat carry out will be 3.9 MMT.

"similar to a drought year...." according to Ian White in the year end news conference.

[charliep]

The CWB forecast carryover is 3.9 MMT - all wheat including durum I believe but would have to listen to the audio (slide 13).

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/pdf/webcast_073108.pdf

Visible stocks in commercial position week 51 were about 3.5 MMT (2.8 MMT wheat ex durum and .7 MMT durum. Total year total will be available August 7 but you can look at the below to see week 51.

http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/Pubs/GrainStats/2007-08/08gsw_shg51.pdf

This commercial stocks number should be solid given the basis for a lot of important programs including determining final CWB payments. The only unknown is on farm carryover. Survey will be done shortly but should be minimal (don't know why anyone would carry old crop into 2008/09).

I see reference to US export subsidy programs. I am not aware of any US export programs so maybe you can help educate me on the ones I am missing. With the exception of the direct payments (payments sent to farmers just because they have a rural address) but there wouldn't any indirect or loan deficiency given how high the market was all year.

[LWeber]

http://www.agr.gc.ca/pol/mad-dam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=go-co&PHPSESSID=fdc3f8f4b324a3f3822b6b484d6f390a

Similar to what drought year?

[bucket]

I don't know why the cwb would carry over grain. Oh wait, they have to cover some low cost sales they made and obviously they don't have a handle on this years crop.

BTW I carried some old wheat over from probably 04 or 05 to cover a 10.74 fpc, it should outprice the current pro and its worth a lot more than when I grew it. The bank can't give me a return better than that.

[Fransisco]

Question "Who makes the decision when to quit selling and keep 3.3 MMT of stocks for the following year?"

Answer: The CWB does.

Question, "Do you agree or disagree with Canada holding back wheat stocks?"

Answer: I disagree, it's individual farmers who should be making that decision not their country.

Question, "Who do you think they are protecting? You?"

Answer: LOL, the boys and girls at 423 mainstreet are looking out for themselves. That's their number one priority.

And the crack about the red light district hits the nail squarely on the head.

[chaffmeister]

LWeber:
about the "drought year" thingy - give Ian a little slack - he's not from here and he's just getting fed what to say.

I recall something a while back about the CWB holding carry over stocks for their best customers. Am I wrong?

[chaffmeister]

Oh yeah - forgot.

In 2002-03 (a drought year), the wheat carry out was 4.1 mmt. Once you factor in the AUS/CAD exchange rate, Ian's right on the money with his 3.9 mmt.

[LWeber]

Re carry for best customers. Have heard the same thing over the years. But then Canada's best customer is Canada and how do you check Canada's books on wheat marketing?

Speaking notes for everyone!!

[wilagro]

charliep: Perhaps you would like to read about the US Export Enhancement Program at the following URL.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE6D91F3CF93AA15755C0A96E9482 60&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1

After you read the article, please answer the fo;;owing question. Do you believe that the American exports would be as high if they didn't have export subsidies?