LIMIT DOWN! When will it stop?

[vvalk]

Just wondering what everyone thinks about our now Bear market. When will it stop and will it recover? If it does recover how far will it? We are now in the $12 range for canola, if not now by tommorrow we will, and going lower. All that is left now for the Bulls is a early frost here in North America. Do we bet the farm on a frost or should we be selling to the 50% level or higher? Things are starting to get ugly. Another thought is the funds continue to sell, will this continue or in a month or two will they start buying?

[cottonpicken]

I hope it all goes to zero so i can buy it all.

[cottonpicken]

And god help you if your on a margined futures position.

[Kodiak]

Corn broke below its 200 day moving average today. Soybeans could do it tomorrow if its another limit down day.

I don't know what this all means in the short term. Funds and everybody else will be regrouping to try and get positioned correctly.

From a demand standpoint, at some point endusers will begin to get coverage. I am not hearing or reading any more stories about 'demand destruction'. Maybe the destruction that was going to happen has already happened? At some point we should begin to find new demand. But where? Trouble is no-one wants to catch the falling knife.

[boarderbloke]

Beans down 70 cents for all months out to July 2010, Tues morning canola will hurt, with no way to get positioned before the open. funny thing though, temps in the midwest 15 degrees above normal and plenty of heat in texes and OK to move in their direction. is the heat too early to affect beans in the southern growing areas or the southern edge of the midwest?? i'm sure traders are suggesting the heat is helping development as the crop was 2-3 weeks late. temps are certainly too cold for this time of year here in SE SK, but the long range forecast has temps spiking 14 days from now, maybe avoiding a frost after all. here, most canola needs 3-4 weeks before it wouldn't be damaged(say one week in the swath)

[GrainBeetle]

The sooner canola goes back to the $400's and wheat to the high $200's, the better off we will be in the long run.

[boarderbloke]

canola down $40.oo tonight on the Nov 08 and the Mar 09, ya could see that coming!

[boarderbloke]

how about the new DEKALB slogan, "At this moment, it's all about confidence." lol

[bucket]

Grainbeetle

How does that make sense when fertilizer and fuel going exactly the other way?

The lower prices should bring in the buyers but it really is beyond me how the grain co and cwb will convince us to sell.

[boarderbloke]

that's right bucket, if there ever was a year for farmers to put a tight grip on their production, it's this year! we just simply have to say enough is enough, "No more firesale prices". the buyers(international) are just lickin' their chops waiting for the combines to start rolling so that they can get their hands on some cheap grain. those of us who didn't blow all of last years profit on new equipment should be able to hold off sales till after freeze up for sure, hopefully many will be able to hold off till January.

[bucket]

For the first time in my farming career I used last years crop to put in this year's.Took alot of off-farm work but I managed it.

I am not giving this year's crop away and filling what I signed then storing the rest.

[boarderbloke]

FYI, today(Tues) soybean trading limits will expand to $1.05 from yesterdays $0.70, due to the limit down move on Monday!

[wilagro]

Isn't it nice to know that your return on your farm is almost TOTALLY determined by non-farmers, for the most part, busy gambling with supply and prices of your grains on the various stockmarkets of the world. These slimeballs work with very little government control to make profit on your labour and investment.

Keep it up...these parasites are waiting for the harvest.

[charliep]

Interesting note that the US futures market has turned positive (at least at 11:00 am). Likely an indication that the market has found value and commercial buyers (those who want product) are willing to step up to the plate. The leader (interesting enough) is wheat.

wilagro - Based on your knowledge, does the CWB use the US wheat futures markets? If they do, are the evil speculators a good thing or a bad thing? As a hint, you might want to check out the 2006/07 annual report.

[wilagro]

Of course legitimate marketers of grains use "futures" and "futures trading". It is part of the long established trading structure.

The ins and outers looking for a quick buck are the villains and I suppose they will always be around.