fertilizer pricing

[ProFarmer]

Is it not funny or irronic that a Couple of weeks after fertilizer retailers are pleading with farmers to hoard up fert , the grain market has hit the skidds. Would it be nice that these greedy people get their butts kicked by lower grain prices and lower demand for fert.
Maybe some of the speculation in the fert market will burn some retailer buts also. Just my 2 cents.

[boarderbloke]

ProFarmer, don't kid yourself (apologies for sounding abrupt) retailers won't get burnt! they're only ordering what they're selling for right now, the ones who really might end up being burnt are the chumps who bought fert at over $700.00, that includes me (re my post back a couple weeks ago and the quandary i was in, "Fertilizer '09") if we're paying up now (in July) for glyphosate and fert at inflated prices and commodities fail to rally it will be a gloomy winter and a sadder spring. don't worry about the retailers, they're fine unless they have accounts over due, and now days they seem to look after that end of the business better than ever.

[boarderbloke]

This is why you can't prebuy fertilizer in May and June. I had a tough time figuring how guys were doing this.

Your farm is a buisiness(well at least mine is) you can't go and spend when you have no idea what the value of your product is for 09. If you could lock in $14.00 Canola for next fall now, and can pencil a profit. Fill your boots. But if you have all fertilizer, chemical etc, bought for next year, and no grain priced at higher levels........ It will be a tough year.

Also I still think Phosphate at $1300/ton isn't bad. But Nitrogen I'll take my chances.

P.S. I still don't think this Bull is over by no means. Technically, yes we've broke some pretty major support areas, but fundamentals haven't changed.

Heard that this weeks BS is due to a large Hedge Fund going under. Get used to it this the way grain will be traded from now on.

CP you here this??

[cottonpicken]

Maybe vvalk can tell us what the rake he stepped on looks like from the previous fertilizer thread.

Havent caught the hedge fund story yet.

[SASKFARMER3]

Got a message on blackberry yesterday that some company got out for .22 cents on investments that once were worth hundreds of dollars and were happy to be out.
Most Fert dealers are just like us. Slim margins and lots of risk. Wait Viterra will pull a rabbit out of a hat.

[jensend]

the stock of potash corp. dropped 12.6% today. one analyst said traders have thrown in the towel on commodities. that could mean one more rally or maybe these weak attempts the last couple of weeks are saying it's over.

[ProFarmer]

I know of a few of farmers that are waiting for 20 dollars canola, and borrowed against it to buy fert. They could be up for a big case of indigestion!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DogPatch]

The damn speculators are the only ones that might make some money if they bought low and sell before it gets back there. Canola is below $12/bushel again. The real people that do the farming are getting shafted by the pricks that wear suits!

[TOM4CWB]

Dogpatch,

I am very happy those folks that allowed us to hedge a good chunk of our Canola @ $650 and $700/t and wheat @ $10.72... were willing to pay!

We are sure getting dry now... there will be less in reserve for next year... than there was last year... if that could be possible!

But hey... its great... no mosquitoes... all year...
I sure wouldn't want to be a duck or goose!

[northfarmer]

the volatility in the markets was predicted, and yet even i have a harder time with it crashing than rising.....that being said we quit selling new crop some time ago.....i agree on the point of buying next years fert before we have any crop sold....i was fortunate to lock in some 09 canola delivered at some historic prices before they shut down flat pricing that far out....so we have incrementally bought both our needs for our winter wheat this spring at lower levels and a good portion of next springs needs before the last price hike.......leaving the rest to see how this crop makes out in the end and what the new year will bring.....quit worrying about the local dealer's margins .......check the fob prices at major ports around the globe...it is the global supply demand equation that will dictate the price trend....in times of prices volatility(both input and production) risk mgmt is key, and I and taking an incrementalist approach.....if you think you can pick the highs and lows all the power to you, if i could, farming might be my hobby and not the source of my families income. GLTA

[vvalk]

cotton. From what I read from most guys on this site, including you, is that prices are still going higher. Or at least back to higher where we were. If this is the case then why would fert price therefore demand go down. If having this crop paid for and all my fertilizer and glysophate paid for 09, without taking a bushel off yet, is stepping on a rake then so be it.

[SASKFARMER3]

OK Vwalk the line what happens oh lets say it freezes next Tuesday on your farm. If your in Alberta you have insurance if your in rest of Sask good luck young man may god have Mersey on your soul.

[parsley]

One way to give the farmer an option on the mount of money spent on fertilizer/yr is by seeding perennial wheat.

Insist on deductions being spent on the development of perennial wheats. Perennial barleys.


Good for the farmer.

Parsley

[boarderbloke]

pars, how will this save on fertilizer costs, will the wheat be some kind of legume hybrid that will fix it's own nitrogen?

[parsley]

Most producers fertilize their brome and alfalfa crop every year.

But they can skip if need be, and they will harvest a crop even when they don't fertilize, because the crop is a perennial. (You also save the cost of seed.) Granted, the yield is down, but so is the operating loan.

IF the price of fertilizer goes through the roof just as your cash flow is in the basement, you can negotiate with the dealer,and if the negotiation falls through, you can walk out the door. You can get by.

It gives the farmer one more negotiating option, boarderbloke, when you say: "Lower the price or I walk,".

With perennial planting, you actually have a back-up to your offer,(along with the seed cost savings). If there are lots of farmers who are able to walk, there is a risk of too much inventory for the dealer.

If you are seeding annually, you really have little option except to fertilize, or cut back on fertilizer. Few walk.

Parsley